We’re looking at each individual category for the Oscars and what our thoughts are going into the final stretch. We’ll adjust our thoughts based on the precursor associated with this category, Annie Awards. Below are our predictions in Best Animated Short Film.

Best Animated Short Film

Winner Predictions

• Butterfly (TL) [New]
• Forevergreen
• The Girl Who Cried Pearls (WL) (PP) [New]
• Retirement Plan
• The Three Sisters

Runner-Up Predictions

• Butterfly (WL)
• Retirement Plan (PP) [New]
• The Girl Who Cried Pearls (TL) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: This is a tough category to predict this year. While they are a solid batch, there are things about each that might keep them from winning. Ultimately, I landed on The Girl Who Cried Pearls. The animation is captivating and the resolution is clever and that’s appealing to a lot of voters. That said, the empathy you have for the main character doesn’t persist and that might be a hindrance to people liking it. Butterfly is not a likely winner because the animation style isn’t necessarily appealing. That said, it has a strong central message that will likely resonate with voters and could propel it to the top in a tight race. The Three Sisters could be a good consensus choice. It’s clever, quite a bit naughty, and has a nice, captivating animation style. If the aforementioned can’t eke out a win, this might be the best alternative. Forevergreen could also contend but it might be a bit too cutesy for most voters. That leaves Retirement Plan, which could be a sleeper pick as well. It will appeal more to older voters to younger ones and because many older voters were purged from the organization despite them having the time actually watch the short films, it would have been a likely winner in the past but these days I think it will be difficult to overcome the others. This is one of the most difficult sets of nominees to predict in quite some time.
Pete Patrick: The Girl Who Cried Pearls has the most impressive animation backed by a strong story.  For me, its closest rival is Retirement Plan with its obvious but important message.
Thomas La Tourrette: It will be interesting to see which film wins this. The five nominees are incredibly different in story and animation style. I am not certain if there are styles that the Academy voters would prefer, but there is something for everyone. For me, the most memorable was The Three Sisters which told a story of three sisters living on an island. It had simple drawings and a funny story, which might not be enough to win but it was enjoyable. Forevergreen was cute and lively, but I do not see it winning. Retirement Plan packed a lot into seven minutes and was wistful and enjoyable, but it seems too slight to win. The Girl Who Cried Pearls told an intriguing story, but I found its stop motion animation ugly to look at. That might turn some voters off which could hurt its chances. That leaves Butterfly which tells a timely story of a Jewish swimmer facing antisemitism during the 1936 Olympics and later during World War II. It’s the strongest story but I did not find its animation that pleasing. That could also hurt its chances, but I think the story will win out and it will take home the Oscar.

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