We’re looking at each individual category for the Oscars and what our thoughts are going into the final stretch. We’ve adjusted our thoughts based on the precursor associated with this category, Producers Guild of America. Below are our predictions in Best Picture.

Best Pictures

Winner Predictions

• Bugonia
• F1
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another (WL) (PP)
• The Secret Agent
• Sentimental Value
• Sinners (TL)
• Train Dreams

Runner-Up Predictions

• Hamnet (PP) [New]
• One Battle After Another (TL)
• Sinners (WL)

(color and symbol key at bottom of page)

Wesley Lovell: I went into detail earlier today with my final predictions but to confirm, I think One Battle After Another will continue its televised win sweep but Sinners has surged in recent weeks and could stage an upset similar to the one Moonlight pulled but I think the genre nature of Sinners might keep it out of the winner’s circle.
Pete Patrick: Likely to be One Battle After Another but if not, then anything can happen including a come from behind win for Hamnet.
Thomas La Tourrette: This has turned into an interesting race. For most of the season, One Battle After Another and Paul Thomas Anderson have dominated the conversation. With the three nominations for OBAA, Anderson now has 14 without a win and it was viewed that it was time for him to win. He will definitely win for adapted screenplay, and probably for director, but the producing win may elude him. One Battle has the pedigree to win with awards from PGA, DGA, ACE, WGA, Golden Globes, Critics Choice and BAFTA. No film with all those wins has not gone on to take best picture. It seemed impossible that it would not also take best picture at the Oscars. But suddenly a few chinks in the armor came, namely Sinners taking actor and more importantly ensemble cast at the Actor Awards just as Oscar voting was coming to a close. Perhaps it was not inevitable that One Battle would take the biggest prize of the night. Sinners does have ACE and WGA awards in different categories than OBAA and also the cast ensemble from SAG. No film with those wins has also not gone on to win best picture, so one of those streaks is about to end on Sunday. I was not that fond of One Battle After Another though I know several people who loved it and I would not be unhappy if it lost. Sinners while not perfect feels like the more personal film that the director wanted to make and it was much more of a box office hit than OBAA. It does feel like the tide had started turning, but I am not sure that it will have happened quite early enough to matter. From what seemed an inevitability, this has become a very close race. We may have a better idea as the night plays out, for if Sinners takes a few of the less expected wins, it might take this too. I am hoping that Sinners wins but will not be surprised if it goes to One Battle After Another.

KEY: