We’re looking at each individual category for the Oscars and what our thoughts are going into the final stretch. We’ll adjust our thoughts based on the precursor associated with this category, Screen Actors Guild. Below are our predictions in Best Supporting Actor.

Best Supporting Actor

Winner Predictions

• Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another
• Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
• Delroy Lindo – Sinners
• Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
• Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value (WL) [New] (PP) [New] (TL)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein (PP) [New]
• Sean Penn – One Battle After Another (WL) [New] (TL) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: Awards for this category have been all over the place this year. 33% of major groups went for Benicio del Toro, 29% went with Stellan Skarsgård, 19% went with Sean Penn, 14% have gone for Jacob Elordi, and 5% for Delroy Lindo. That doesn’t suggest a consensus. The key prizes won were Skarsgård with the Golden Globes and Sean Penn at SAG and BAFTA. Del Toro’s acclaim came mostly from major critics groups like Chicago, NBR, and New York. So, what’s the calculus that determines the winner. Typically, you can rely on SAG/BAFTA to carry the day but Penn already has two Oscars. Are voters less concerned about that nowadays or does it still matter? del Toro has an Oscar as well but the other three do not. Elordi and Lindo have both been struggling to earn prominent awards, though Lindo wasn’t nominated in many places with a nomination rate of less than 29% (with major groups) while the others are sitting at 71% and higher. Elordi does have the Critics Choice award but that doesn’t count for too much these days. That doesn’t suggest a lot of support for the veteran actor and if they are going for a vet, Skarsgård has the more prominent profile (and more screen time). In the end, this will go down to the wire. Del Toro’s early dominance has faded and Elordi’s prize count is low so I think this contest will come down to Penn and Skarsgård. I don’t honestly know which will pull it out but for right now, Skarsgård has the edge if prior Oscar wins aren’t taken into account.
Pete Patrick: Early favorite Stellan Skarsgard should prevail despite his BAFA and SAG snubs.
Thomas La Tourrette: It has felt like almost every group has found a new person to give their award to. I think Delroy Lindo is the only one who hasn’t gotten a nod from one of the major groups. Stellan Skarsgård has long looked the front runner and I think he still is. He has long been a respected actor but has never come close to a nomination before. He should win on his first nomination. Jacob Elordi was a surprise winner early in the season at Critics Choice, but he does not seem to have caught on enough to win. Benicio Del Toro started to pick up steam with his win at the Globes, but then the tide started turning towards his costar Sean Penn. Penn does look strong with wins from BAFTA and SAG which ordinarily would put him in the driver’s seat. But I do wonder if the Academy is ready to give him a third Oscar. They did recently give Frances McDormand a third one, but it is still an uncommon thing. Penn might also split votes with Del Toro which will not help either one. I predict it goes to Skarsgård, but it will be a much closer race than most people predicted.

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