%We’re looking at each individual category for the Oscars and what our thoughts are going into the final stretch. We’ll adjust our thoughts based on the precursor associated with this category, Screen Actors Guild. Below are our predictions in Best Supporting Actress.

Best Supporting Actress

Winner Predictions

• Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleas – Sentimental Value
• Amy Madigan – Weapons (WL) (PP)
• Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
• Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another (TL)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Amy Madigan – Weapons (TL)
• Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners (WL) [New]
• Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another (PP) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: Having different nominees at every guild, critics group, and organization makes it very difficult sometimes to parse what’s going on. Like the male side of the contest, there hasn’t been a consistent winner all season. Amy Madigan, who just won the Actor Award for Best Supporting Actress, is barely in the lead in terms of wins with 39% of major groups. Teyana Taylor, who won the Golden Globe, has won 30% of prizes. Wunmi Mosaku has fewer with 17% but picked up the crucial BAFTA award in the category. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas is the choice of only 4.35% of groups while Elle Fanning hasn’t won a single award. It’s safe to assume that neither of these latter two are going to be winning the Oscar. That puts the contest between Madigan, Taylor, and Mosaku. Madigan wasn’t nominated at BAFTA, Mosaku wasn’t nominated at the Globes, but all three were up for the SAG award. That could give us the best indication yet that Madigan is in the lead. She’s been in the industry a long time and has many friends. It’s rare for both supporting categories to become career tributes but Supporting Actor is heading that route and Madigan may be as well. The problem is that Weapons wasn’t nominated for anything else and is a horror film. One Battle After Another (Taylor) and Sinners (Mosaku) have multiple nominations to their names and that alone should put them in a better position. In terms of raw performance quality? Mosaku has the subtler role while Taylor has the most bombastic. The latter is often more important than the former, though BAFTA did see that. Ultimately, this will be a nail biter and right now, I’m leaning towards career tribute for Madigan but BAFTA has predicted upsets before and this could well be the latest example.
Pete Patrick: Madigan is on a roll, but Taylor could take it away from her.
Thomas La Tourrette: (Editor’s Note: Was not able to provide commentary or revised predictions by the deadline)

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