The first major televised precursor is here. This is the second year where the Globes are changed. Have they changed completely or do the old tendencies continue to rise. We’ll find out on Sunday.

GOLDEN GLOBE AWARDS

Legend:

Winner Predictions:
Wesley Lovell Pete Patrick Thomas LaTourrette

Runner-Up Predictions:
Wesley Lovell Pete Patrick Thomas LaTourrette

Overall Commentary

Thomas La Tourette: With a different group controlling the Golden Globes and a larger voting bloc, it is hard to say how things will go this year. In the past, star power could propel an actor to a win, but that may no longer be the case. I am not sure how they will play out but am doing my best to guess. I will admit some biases against some movies that I did not like as much influenced me. Anora left me cold and Wicked surprisingly impressed me, so I will lean towards Wicked some. The Brutalist has yet to open in Colorado, so have to judge it blind. It will be interesting to see how this early awards show goes.

Best Picture, Drama

The Brutalist WL PP TL
A Complete Unknown Nil
Conclave WL PP TL
Dune: Part Two Nil
Nickel Boys Nil
September 5 Nil

Wesley Lovell: This organization has changed and that might benefit a film like Conclave more than anything else. That said, The Brutalist feels like the most international film of the bunch because of its thorny issues and while I wouldn’t imagine most of this body would actually get the film, it has to be thought of as something of a frontrunner. This could very well start a trend towards a specific winner. We’ll just have to see if they set the pace or fall behind.
Pete Patrick: I suspect the new Golden Globes will want to show their critical superiority in jumping on the bandwagon for The Brutalist even if in their hearts they prefer Conclave but either one could win.
Thomas La Tourette: The Brutalist seems to be the likely winner here, though I could see it going a couple of different ways too.

Best Picture, Comedy/Musical

Anora WL PP TL
Challengers Nil
Emilia Pérez Nil
A Real Pain Nil
The Substance Nil
Wicked WL PP TL

Wesley Lovell: If the body’s voters have genuinely changed, then Anora or Emilia Pérez will be the winner but if they are generally the same, something like Wicked could pull this off. Anora would be the critics’ pick but Emilia Pérez is more of a international favorite. It will be a tight race with all three films poised to win. What I think gives Anora the lead is that Wicked has another category to win a top prize in and that may give them the freedom to pick something else here. If it weren’t for that category’s existence, Wicked would be a much more likely winner.
Pete Patrick: Anora has the critical huzzahs to win this easily but Wicked is the clear popular favorite.  It could go either way, but I think Anora will prevail.
Thomas La Tourette: Wicked feels like the type of movie that would normally win, but with the new voting bloc of the Golden Globes, it is hard to say.

Best Picture, Animated

Flow WL PP TL
Inside Out 2 Nil
Memoir of a Snail Nil
Moana 2 Nil
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl Nil
The Wild Robot WL PP TL

Wesley Lovell: Another category where a change in the organization’s voting membership could benefit the smaller film. Flow is the kind of animated feature that comes out of nowhere and wins everything in sight. Before its release, The Wild Robot had the critical acclaim to top everything but that’s not really the case anymore. It could still win, as could upset winner Inside Out but Flow feels like the kind of film the revised membership could get behind.
Pete Patrick: Here I suspect they will go with the popular favorite that The Wild Robot is over the critics’ darling, Flow.
Thomas La Tourette: I will go out on a limb and pick Flow because it was such an audacious film. But I will not be surprised if The Wild Robot wins.

Best Director

Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez WL TL
Sean Baker – Anora Nil
Edward Berger – Conclave PP
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist WL PP TL
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance Nil
Payal Kapadia – All We Imagine as Light Nil

Wesley Lovell: With some major players left out, this likely comes down to Jacques Audiard and Brady Corbet. Corbet has the best chances since The Brutalist is likely to win at the top but Audiard’s audaciousness might give them the cover to vote him the winner. Don’t count out either Edward Berger or Sean Baker as both have well regarded pictures in the running.
Pete Patrick: They will most likely go with the director of their Best Picture, Drama choice which I think will be Brady Corbet for The Brutalist but if they go with Conclave, then it should be Edward Berger.
Thomas La Tourette: Brady Corbet seems primed to win this, and this may be the beginning of the roll through to the Oscar for him. If he does not win, then the Oscars are wide open.

Best Actor, Drama

Adrien Brody – The Brutalist WL PP TL
Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown WL PP TL
Daniel Craig – Queer Nil
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing Nil
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave Nil
Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice Nil

Wesley Lovell: When Adrien Brody won a surprise victory for The Pianist two decades ago, Globe voters had gone for Jack Nicholson instead. They didn’t vote for him then but I suspect they may vote for him now. That said, Timothée Chalamet has the benefit of two major performances in two Best Picture Drama nominees this year and that could bolster his visibility enough to secure the win. Of course, Sebastian Stan actually has two nominations this year and that could benefit his chances of being a spoiler.
Pete Patrick: This is a tough three-way race between Adrien Brody, Timothée Chalamet, and Ralph Fiennes, none of whom have won this award.  This is Brody’s second nomination, Chalamet’s fourth, and Fiennes’ seventh.  Sentiment probably favors Fiennes, but unless Conclave sweeps, he is likely to go home empty-handed again.
Thomas La Tourette: This had felt like it was basically between Adrien Brody and Ralph Fiennes, with the edge going to Brody who is said to have turned in the performance of his career in The Brutalist. I am starting to wonder if Timothee Chalamet’s star may be rising at just the right time for him to pull an upset.

Best Actor, Comedy/Musical

Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain WL TL
Hugh Grant – Heretic Nil
Gabriel LaBelle – Saturday Night Nil
Jesse Plemmons – Kinds of Kindness Nil
Glen Powell – Hit Man PP TL
Sebastian Stan – A Different Man WL PP

Wesley Lovell: Jesse Eisenberg, Hugh Grant, and Sebastian Stan are the only ones in this group that have a history of awards success this season. Eisenberg has the benefit of a nomination in Original Screenplay that he’s not likely to win. That and A Real Pain being more of a comedy than either of the horror entries Heretic or A Different Man. This was the kind of award that the more well known Grant would have carried with ease at one point but is it really a comedy? No. That’s probably going to keep him from winning (who decided this would fit in this category anyway?). If Stan doesn’t win in the drama category, they could decide to recognize him for his double nomination and give him the award here.
Pete Patrick: With two nominations, one for Drama and one for Comedy, Sebastian Stan is going to be hard to beat.  Newcomer Glen Powell is probably in the best position to do that if the voters don’t want to go in that direction.
Thomas La Tourette: With Jesse Eisenberg being the only one who stands a chance of an Oscar nomination, he should be the easy winner.

Best Actress, Drama

Pamela Anderson – The Last Showgirl TL
Angelina Jolie – Maria WL TL
Nicole Kidman – Babygirl WL
Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door Nil
Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here PP
Kate Winslet – Lee PP

Wesley Lovell: Angelina Jolie and Nicole Kidman are the kind of international stars this body used to love to recognize. Just think back to Jolie’s unexpected nomination for The Tourist. It’s also been a very long time since Jolie’s been awarded (her Oscar-winning role was the first motion picture win, though she had two TV prizes from this group already). That could give Jolie the lead but Tilda Swinton and Fernanda Torres are both in major non-American features with Swinton having the more nuanced role. This one’s going to be a nail biter and while it could start a steamroll for one of these ladies, it seems unlikely. Swinton could be the surprise winner but Jolie would make more sense considering she and Kidman are more likely to earn Oscar nominations for these performances than any of the other four.
Pete Patrick: If they go for the performance instead of the hype, either Fernanda Torres or Kate Winslet will win this.  It will be an uphill battle, but I think Torres can pull it off.
Thomas La Tourette: I am not certain who will win here as Jolie, Anderson, and Kidman all have decent chances of prevailing. I am changing my mind at the last minute and going with Jolie.

Best Actress, Comedy/Musical

Amy Adams – Nightbitch Nil
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked WL TL
Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez Nil
Mikey Madison – Anora PP TL
Demi Moore – The Substance WL PP
Zendaya – Challengers Nil

Wesley Lovell: This is a one hell of a stacked category. Only Amy Adams and Zendaya aren’t major contenders for an Oscar nomination. Erivo has the showier role but Gascón has the benefit of being a non-English language performer. Mikey Madison has the ingenue vibe these voters used to love (then again, so does Zendaya). Meanwhile, Demi Moore is a once major celebrity in a comeback role. If there’s enough buzz for that kind of narrative, she could pull off a win here and begin a steamroll to the Oscars but this body loves its musical performers, which could give the edge to Erivo.
Pete Patrick: It’s a close call but I think newcomer Mikey Madison will outpoll veteran Demi Moore in a very close race.
Thomas La Tourette: I know that most people favor Mikey Madison to win, though it is not the type of film that has won in the past. I will go with Erivo who was amazing and gave the heart to Wicked.

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov – Anora Nil
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain WL PP TL
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown Nil
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist WL TL
Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice Nil
Denzel Washington – Gladiator II PP

Wesley Lovell: A lot of strong actors here and while I think Guy Pearce has a lot of potential to win under a Brutalist sweep, it’s Kieran Culkin who has the preponderance of awards. He’s also the more sympathetic character. Edward Norton, Yura Borisov, or Denzel Washington could surprise but ultimately it comes down to Pearce and Culkin.
Pete Patrick: Kieran Culkin is this year’s sure thing to sweep the broadcast TV awards.  The closest runner-up is Denzel Washington whose win would be his fourth from the Golden Globes which includes the Cecil B. DeMille career achievement award.
Thomas La Tourette: Kieran Culkin seems to have this wrapped up. But if Guy Pearce or Edward Norton prevails then the road to Oscar just got way more interesting.

Best Supporting Actress

Selena Gomez – Emilia Pérez Nil
Ariana Grande-Butera – Wicked WL TL
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist Nil
Margaret Qualley – The Substance Nil
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave PP
Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez WL PP TL

Wesley Lovell: Selena Gomez’s campaign for a nomination is the rockiest of these six. The rest all seem like potential nominees. Jones has the benefit of being in a sweep-capable film, Qualley has the benefit of Demi Moore’s potential winning performance while Isabella Rossellini has the international favor this body could get behind. Ultimately, I think it comes down to box office star Zoe Saldaña and pop superstar Ariana Grande-Butera. Grande-Butera could also benefit from a Wicked sweep and ultimately I think will barely pull of a victory but don’t sleep on Sandaña or Jones.
Pete Patrick: Veteran Isabella Rossellini could be this year’s surprise winner with Zoe Saldaña poised to pick up her first major award if she doesn’t.
Thomas La Tourette: Zoe Saldaña who was a co-lead rather than supporting actress in Emilia Pérez is the probable winner. The only person who might upset her is Ariana-Grande-Butera who was delightful as Galinda in Wicked.

Best Screenplay

Anora WL PP TL
The Brutalist Nil
Conclave WL PP TL
Emilia Pérez Nil
A Real Pain Nil
The Substance Nil

Wesley Lovell: It is very likely all six of these films win get nominated by the Academy. Anora has the preponderance of precursors on its side with A Real Pain a close second. Conclave has an international appeal as does Emilia Pérez. Of course, if there’s a Brutalist sweep, it could become apparent in this catgory.
Pete Patrick: The smart money is probably on Anora, but I think they will go with the more detailed screenplay for Conclave.
Thomas La Tourette: This will be an interesting race between the probable front runners for original and adapted screenplay at the Oscars. I will go with Conclave as I liked it better

Best Song

Beautiful That Way – The Last Showgirl Nil
Compress/Regress – Challengers Nil
Forbidden Road – Better Man Nil
Kiss the Sky – The Wild Robot WL PP TL
El Mal – Emilia Pérez WL PP TL
Mi Camino – Emilia Pérez Nil

Wesley Lovell: While “El Mal” gets a lot more attention than these other songs, it’s also not very good. That said, “Mi Camino” is worse. Meanwhile, “Kiss the Sky” has the kind of 90s Disney vibe that used to dominate this category. “Forbidden Road” could be a surprise winner.
Pete Patrick: It could be any of the six, but I’m thinking that the exuberant “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez will take this one with “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot a possible spoiler.
Thomas La Tourette: One of the two nominees from Emilia Pérez seems likely to win over “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot. I will go with “El Mal” to win.

Best Original Score

The Brutalist WL PP TL
Challengers Nil
Conclave PP TL
Dune: Part Two Nil
Emilia Pérez WL
The Wild Robot Nil

Wesley Lovell: The Brutalist is probably going to win the Oscar and this will be its first step. They won’t bother with Dune: Part Two since it’s Oscar ineligible. Challeners could win but I suspect the real runner-up is Emilia Pérez because it’s an actual musical. Then again, Conclave could win if it carries the 1492: Conquest of Paradise crowd (a surprise nominee several decades ago), but that film didn’t win so I don’t expect Conclave to either. The Wild Robot is a wild possibility as a potential winner if the voting body is fractured enough.
Pete Patrick: This is another race between The Brutalist and Conclave which could go either way.  Right now, I give the edge to The Brutalist but by show time I may have revised my thinking.
Thomas La Tourette: Most any of these could win, but I have heard a lot about the score from The Brutalist, so I will predict it to win.

Best Non-English Language Film

All We Imagine as Light WL TL
Emilia Pérez WL PP TL
The Girl with the Needle Nil
I’m Still Here PP
The Seed of the Sacred Fig Nil
Vermiglio Nil

Wesley Lovell: One of these is not like the others, Emilia Pérez is a Best Picture nominee. That gives it the easy edge. Of the rest, any of them could conceivably win but All We Imagine as Light is the one most likely with its prior precursor wins giving it a boost.
Pete Patrick: Emilia Pérez is the most nominated film this year.  A win here will ensure that it won’t go home emptyhanded.  I’m Still Here is a longshot but could upset if there indeed is one in this category.  
Thomas La Tourette: Emilia Pérez with 10 nominations seems the likely winner.

Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Nil
Alien: Romulus Nil
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice Nil
Deadpool & Wolverine Nil
Gladiator II Nil
Inside Out 2 TL
Twisters Nil
Wicked WL PP TL
The Wild Robot WL PP

Wesley Lovell: Wicked is the only Best Picture nominee of the bunch (though both Inside Out 2 and The Wild Robot are nominated in animated. With Dune: Part Two out of the way, it will likely be an easy win for Wicked. Of course, with this group no one knows and they could go with another title in an off-the-wall pick.
Pete Patrick: Box-office phenomenon Wicked will easily win this one.  Nothing else comes close.  The Wild Robot will be a distant second choice. 
Thomas La Tourette: Wicked should be an easy winner in this category.