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While the Art Directors Guild has some indication that a win can further a film’s Oscar ambitions, they also have three categories that could impact voting depending on the results.

ART DIRECTORS GUILD AWARDS

Best Period Art Direction

Asteroid City (RU:Wesley)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Peter, RU:Thomas)
Maestro
Napoleon
Oppenheimer (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: This isn’t the proxy battle for the Oscar. That happens in the Fantasy category. Still, this is an incredibly difficult category to predict. Maestro is the only film I can’t see winning. While I’m leaning towards the full city set made for Oppenheimer, I could see them going for the Wes Anderson aesthetic with Asteroid City. Can’t count out Killers of the Flower Moon or Napoleon though.
Pete Patrick: This one is a tough call, but I think Killers of the Flower Moon, which vividly evokes the 1920s, will take it over Oppenheimer, which is set over several decades albeit less vividly.
Thomas La Tourette: It feels like they built the most sets for Oppenheimer, including the creation of the whole town, so I think it will win.

Best Fantasy Art Direction

Barbie (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
The Creator
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Poor Things (Peter, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Wonka

Wesley Lovell: This battle comes down to only two films: Barbie and Poor Things. The steampunk aesthetic of Poor Things has a lot going for it due to its period familiarity; however, Barbie created an entire Barbie city and those travel montages employed some old stage techniques that this group is more likely to get. I lean towards Barbie but wouldn’t be surprised if Poor Things upsets.
Pete Patrick: My guess would be Poor Things, which is set in a world of its own, over Barbie, which predominantly reimagines the more familiar Mattel world in which it is set.
Thomas La Tourette: Poor Things had the most fantastical sets, so it should win. Though either Barbie or Guardians could sneak in for the win.

Best Contemporary Art Direction

Beau Is Afraid (RU:Wesley)
John Wick: Chapter 4 (RU:Peter)
The Killer
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (RU:Thomas)
Saltburn (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: It’s so difficult to assess what this group likes in terms of contemporary art direction; however, Saltburn is the one film among these that was in the hunt for an Oscar nomination, so that’s where I’m putting my prediction. That said, Beau Is Afraid has that quasi-futuristic vibe that could bolster its chances.
Pete Patrick: I would give it to Saltburn, hands down, but the voters could really give this to any one of the nominees.
Thomas La Tourette: It is hard to picture anything but the grand rooms of Saltburn winning this.

Best Animation Art Direction

The Boy and the Heron (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Elemental
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter)
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Wesley Lovell: The question here is which of the two main competitors for the Best Animated Feature Oscar will walk away with this. While the traditional hand-drawn aspect of The Boy and the Heron could appeal, the chaotic and less reality-grounded setting of Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse probably has the more creative work and this group is likely to recognize and reward that.
Pete Patrick: The Boy and the Heron had the most imaginative art direction but Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is more popular so it could easily upset.
Thomas La Tourette: With sets from all the different universes, Spider-Man should easily win this.