The closest thing we have to the makeup of the Academy of itself, the British Academy still has its quirks but campaigns can begin and end with them.

BRITISH ACADEMY OF FILM & TELEVISION ARTS AWARDS

Best Film

Anatomy of a Fall (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon (RU:Wesley)
Oppenheimer (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Poor Things

Wesley Lovell: The Oscar frontrunner is Oppenheimer. It’s strongest competition isn’t in the race here but Killers comes a close second because Poor Things is more likely to win elsewhere.
Pete Patrick: Oppenheimer should easily win but, if not, look for Anatomy of a Fall to upset.
Thomas La Tourette: Oppenheimer seems so sure of the win that it almost feels pointless to put in the runner up. I really do not see it losing, especially to these four films.

Best Animated Film

The Boy and the Heron (Peter, RU:Wesley)
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (RU:Thomas)
Elemental
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: The Brits might favor Boy and the Heron more, but I think Spider-Man will eke out a victory.
Pete Patrick: This will be either The Boy and the Heron or Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. I’m guessing the former.
Thomas La Tourette: Spider-Man has been on a tear, so I expect it to win here unless the British made Chicken Run can pull the upset on home turf.

Best Director

Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest (RU:Wesley)
Andrew Haigh – All of Us Strangers
Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Alexander Payne – The Holdovers
Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Oscar frontrunner Christopher Nolan has no genuine competition, especially with Martin Scorsese’s sentimentalism out of the way.
Pete Patrick: Nolan should easily win with Triet waiting in the wings in case of an upset.
Thomas La Tourette: Christopher Nolan seems destined to win.

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Colman Domingo – Rustin
Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers (Wesley, Peter)
Barry Keoghan – Saltburn (RU:Thomas)
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer (Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Teo Yoo – Past Lives

Wesley Lovell: We’ve often observed the predisposition with BAFTA picking British or Irish actors over their American counterparts and this will be a test of if Paul Giamatti can become a runaway Oscar frontrunner. If he wins, it will end the race here. If he loses to Cillian Murphy, a striking possibility, the race will be unsettled until SAG.
Pete Patrick: This is really too close to call between Giamatti and Murphy, but I give the edge to Giamatti’s teacher over Murphy’s physicist.
Thomas La Tourette: I think this is a battle between the two Irishmen, with the edge going to Cillian Murphy who is both Oscar nominated and in the more seen film. If he is considered a weak frontrunner, which he somewhat is, then it might go to Barry Keoghan’s sly role in Saltburn. If it goes to either Paul Giamatti or Bradley Cooper, then they will have become the one to beat for the Oscar.

Best Actress

Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple
Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall (Peter, RU:Wesley)
Carey Mulligan – Maestro (RU:Thomas)
Vivian Oparah – Rye Lane
Margot Robbie – Barbie
Emma Stone – Poor Things (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: There are British actors here but I don’t think they have a chance. Sandra Hüller seems like the kind of left-field choice this group would make if they didn’t want to award Emma Stone a second trophy. With Lily Gladstone out of the race, Stone needs to win this one or face the inevitability that she’s going to go down at the Oscars.
Pete Patrick: I would be genuinely surprised if Hüller doesn’t win for a film that the Brits genuinely adore.
Thomas La Tourette: Without the main competition of Lily Gladstone, this feels like Emma Stone’s to lose. She is brilliant in an odd movie and seems likely to win here. If not, then either Sandra Huller or hometown fave Carey Mulligan would claim the award.

Best Supporting Actor

Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Jacob Elordi – Saltburn
Ryan Gosling – Barbie (RU:Wesley)
Paul Mescal – All of Us Strangers (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers

Wesley Lovell: Downey Jr. is the Oscar frontrunner and against this slate, I am doubtful he won’t win. That said, Ryan Gosling could surprise as could Paul Mescal if they want to go with a native.
Pete Patrick: Downey should take this easily, with Mescal probably his closest competition.
Thomas La Tourette: Robert Downey Jr. has been scooping up the awards and I imagine he will continue to do that here. His strongest competition comes from the two Brits, Jacob Elordi and Paul Mescal, neither of whom was Oscar nominated.

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple (RU:Wesley)
Claire Foy – All of Us Strangers
Sandra Hüller – The Zone of Interest
Rosamund Pike – Saltburn (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Da’Vine Joy Randolph is the only actor this year that is far-and-away the frontrunner. No one has come close to toppling her, so expect her to win again here, possibly the only match BAFTA has to the eventual Oscar winners.
Pete Patrick: Randolph should continue her victory run around this year’s supporting actress awards. Pike is likely to be a distant runner-up.
Thomas La Tourette: Da’Vine Joy Randolph has been the awards favorite, getting the most precursors of any actress and I think she will here too. The one person who might stand in her way is Rosamund Pike who was so excellent in Saltburn.

Best Original Screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Barbie (RU:Wesley)
The Holdovers (RU:Peter)
Maestro
Past Lives (RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Barbie competes in original here but adapted at the Oscars. That might give voters pause in recognizing one of the most recognized screenplays of the year. I could very much see BAFTA snubbing Greta Gerwig’s film and giving it to Anatomy of a Fall.
Pete Patrick: Anatomy of a Fall will likely win in a toss-up with The Holdovers.
Thomas La Tourette: Anatomy of a Fall seems the likely winner. With contention over where Barbie should be listed, it probably cannot win here. The Holdovers may seem too American for BAFTA, which would leave Past Lives as the major competition.

Best Adapted Screenplay

All of Us Strangers (Thomas, RU:Peter)
American Fiction
Oppenheimer (Wesley, Peter, RU:Thomas)
Poor Things (RU:Wesley)
The Zone of Interest

Wesley Lovell: Oppenheimer doesn’t have its prime Oscar competition so it should win fairly easily…unless BAFTA voters don’t think the film is a screenwriters kind of movie and go with something else.
Pete Patrick: Oppenheimer will likely prevail here with the critically acclaimed All of Us Strangers next in line.
Thomas La Tourette: The dialogue of All of Us Strangers stayed with me the most of any of these films, and I could see it winning. Oppenheimer was good, but its screenplay was not its best part.

Best Original Score

Killers of the Flower Moon (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Oppenheimer (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Poor Things
Saltburn (RU:Thomas)
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Wesley Lovell: Oscar’s frontrunner is likely to persist here, though an upset is always possible.
Pete Patrick: Oppenheimer again unless Killers of the Flower Moon pulls an upset.
Thomas La Tourette: Oppenheimer has dominated the precursors and that should continue here.

Best Editing

Anatomy of a Fall (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Another case for the prime Oscar contender to win a trophy.
Pete Patrick: This should also be Oppenheimer‘s to lose, with long shot The Zone of Interest next in line.
Thomas La Tourette: Oppenheimer should be the easy winner here. It takes impressive editing for a three hour film to fly by.

Best Cinematography

Killers of the Flower Moon (RU:Wesley)
Maestro
Oppenheimer (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Poor Things (RU:Thomas)
The Zone of Interest (Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Oppenheimer is in line for a lot of awards this year and this should be one of its easier victories, but might not be.
Pete Patrick: Let’s give this one to The Zone of Interest to break the monotony.
Thomas La Tourette: Oppenheimer should easily win this too.

Best Production Design

Barbie (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Killers of the Flower Moon (RU:Peter)
Oppenheimer (Peter)
Poor Things (Wesley, Thomas)
The Zone of Interest

Wesley Lovell: With the ADG win, Poor Things moves into the lead. If Barbie pulls this one out, then the balance will shift back.
Pete Patrick: Oppenheimer takes another one unless Killers of the Flower Moon comes from behind to grab it.
Thomas La Tourette: This probably comes down to either Barbie or Poor Things, and I will give the edge to Barbie. The other films were good, but the flashier work will probably win out.

Best Costume Design

Barbie (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Barbie is the bare frontrunner in this category and if BAFTA doesn’t go along, its prospects will dwindle unless it can win at the Costume Designers Guild.
Pete Patrick: Probably Poor Things with Barbie next in line.
Thomas La Tourette: Again I think this will come down to Barbie and Poor Things, though this time the edge might go to Barbie. I don’t think the staid work of the other three nominated films stand a chance.

Best Makeup & Hair

Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro (Thomas, RU:Peter)
Napoleon
Oppenheimer (RU:Wesley)
Poor Things (Wesley, Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Looking somewhat like the Oscars slate, Poor Things should still earn the victory.
Pete Patrick: I see Poor Things taking this over Maestro.
Thomas La Tourette: The work on Maestro has the most awards so far and will probably continue here too. If Poor Things manages the win, then that may recalculate the odds for the Oscar.

Best Sound

Ferrari
Maestro (RU:Wesley)
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer (Thomas, RU:Peter)
The Zone of Interest (Wesley, Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: While one might think Oppenheimer the strongest contender, The Zone of Interest has gotten copious praise for its sound design, so look for it to win. I don’t think even Oppenheimer could overcome Maestro since it’s not really about the soundscape like that film is.
Pete Patrick: Look for The Zone of Interest to take this one in a close race with Oppenheimer.
Thomas La Tourette: I think Oppenheimer should easily win this.

Best Special Visual Effects

The Creator (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon
Poor Things (Peter)

Wesley Lovell: The Creator is the more traditional winner in this category but Best Picture nominee Poor Things could stun.
Pete Patrick: Poor Things should win unless there’s a sudden urge to reward The Creator with something.
Thomas La Tourette: The Creator and Guardians of the Galaxy have more noticeable special effects, so I expect one of them to win.

Best Film Not in the English Language

20 Days In Mariupol
Anatomy of a Fall (Wesley, Peter, RU:Thomas)
Past Lives
Society of the Snow
The Zone of Interest (Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: The only battle Anatomy of a Fall will take against The Zone of Interest. Zone may win the Oscar but Anatomy is likely to win this award.
Pete Patrick: This one will be close, but Anatomy of a Fall should prevail.
Thomas La Tourette: The British made The Zone of Interest should easily win, though Anatomy of a Fall and Past Lives held my interest more.

Best Documentary

20 Days In Mariupol (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
American Symphony (RU:Peter)
Beyond Utopia (RU:Thomas)
Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (RU:Wesley)
WHAM!

Wesley Lovell: Still actually made this list after missing out at the Oscars. That said, 20 Days in Mariupol has become the Oscar frontrunner and I expect it to triumph.
Pete Patrick: The documentary on the Ukraine War should take this easily.
Thomas La Tourette: 20 Days In Mariupol sounds like a winner of a documentary and its harrowing account of the Ukraine invasion should easily win. Beyond Utopia also sounds good, but I thoroughly expect it to go to 20 Days.

Best British Short Animation

Crab Day (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Visible Mending (Peter, Thomas)
Wild Summon (Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: I honestly don’t know what to pick here, so this is just a Wild guess.
Pete Patrick: Just guessing.
Thomas La Tourette: I have no idea about these films.

Best British Short Film

Festival of Slaps (RU:Thomas)
Gorka
Jellyfish and Lobster (Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Such A Lovely Day (Peter)
Yellow (Wesley, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Yellow as the only title on this list that I actually recognized, but honestly any of them could take it.
Pete Patrick: More guessing.
Thomas La Tourette: In reading about these, Jellyfish and Lobster sounds the most interesting and the most successfully done of these films.

Rising Star Award

Phoebe Dynevor
Ayo Edebiri (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Jacob Elordi (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Mia McKenna-Bruce
Sophie Wilde

Wesley Lovell: If this award is still voted on by the public, Jacob Elordi has this one in the bag. If not, Ayo Edebiri had the more acclaimed year.
Pete Patrick: The Australian actor should easily win this with his closest competition an American TV star.
Thomas La Tourette: Jacob Elordi had two prominent roles in Saltburn and Priscilla, so he seems the best choice.

Best Casting

All of Us Strangers (Peter, Thomas)
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
How to Have Sex
Killers of the Flower Moon (Wesley, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: It’s time to start watching this category more closely with the Oscars introducing it in two years. Having said that, Killers of the Flower Moon seems like the kind of movie to win with a decent-sized ensemble of major names, two of which have Oscar nominations to their names.
Pete Patrick: The smaller the better this year with All of Us Strangers and The Holdovers leading the pack.
Thomas La Tourette: All of Us Strangers is a compact cast of four people, but they are so good in their roles that I could see that film winning this. If they want a larger cast, then Killers of the Flower Moon will win.

Best British Film

All of Us Strangers (Peter, Thomas)
How to Have Sex
Napoleon
The Old Oak
Poor Things (Wesley)
Rye Lane
Saltburn
Scrapper
Wonka
The Zone of Interest (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: This race comes down to Poor Things and The Zone of Interest. While I think Zone has a decent shot of winning this, Poor Things is most certainly the more “British” of the selections and with The Favourite having won this previously, I can’t imagine them not being supportive of director Yorgos Lanthimos.
Pete Patrick: All of Us Strangers should take this one with The Zone of Interest an outside possibility.
Thomas La Tourette: All of Us Strangers tugged at the heart, so I could see it winning, though it will probably go to the colder The Zone of Interest.

Outstanding British Debut

Blue Bag
Bobi Wine: The People’s President (RU:Thomas)
Earth Mama (RU:Wesley)
How to Have Sex (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Is There Anybody Out There? (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: This category could generate a surprise but How to Have Sex has the Best British Film nomination, which means it’s probably the frontrunner.
Pete Patrick: I really have no idea here.
Thomas La Tourette: The only two I have heard of are How to Have Sex and Bobi Wine, and I could see them going for the feature film over the documentary.