The second broadcast awards show of the season to be quickly overshadowed by the raft of guild honors the next few weeks.
CRITICS CHOICE AWARDS
Legend:
Winner Predictions:
Wesley Lovell Pete Patrick Thomas LaTourrette
Runner-Up Predictions:
Wesley Lovell Pete Patrick Thomas LaTourrette
Introductions
Wesley Lovell: The Critics Choice Awards were put off due to the wildfire. Look for the awards to go to the films they suspect will win the Oscars. Too many of them vote how they think the Oscars will go rather than the way they believe is the right way. Those who don’t sometimes sneak things through but for the most part, you can probably take the Oscar nominees and pick one of those to win. That said, since voting was concluded prior to some high profile incidents, we’ll have to see just how out of date they are.
Pete Patrick: The goal of the membership of the Critics Choice is to predict the Oscar winners, but their selections are several weeks old due to delays caused by the Los Angeles fires so not all the awards represent current thinking and will be less telling of where the Oscar race stands now.
Thomas La Tourette: No introduction provided.
Best Picture
Anora WL TL
The Brutalist WL PP TL
A Complete Unknown Nil
Conclave PP
Dune: Part Two Nil
Emilia Pérez Nil
Nickel Boys Nil
Sing Sing Nil
The Substance Nil
Wicked Nil
Wesley Lovell: The proxy battle for the Oscars might give a boost to any one of these ten titles but The Brutalist is the most likely with Anora a potential spoiler.
Pete Patrick: Could also be Wicked or Anora, but I think at the time of the voting The Brutalist and Conclave were uppermost in the minds of the voters.
Thomas La Tourette: The Brutalist has been a darling of the critics, though I have not seen why it has enamored them. I imagine it will win.
Best Animated Feature
Flow WL PP TL
Inside Out 2 Nil
Memoir of a Snail Nil
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl Nil
The Wild Robot WL PP TL
Wesley Lovell: The critics have generally preferred Flow over The Wild Robot. If it wins here, then an Oscar could bein the offing but a win by Wild Robot would set the opposite expectation.
Pete Patrick: I give the edge to DreamWorks’ popular Wild Robot over the international hit, Flow.
The Wild Robot
Thomas La Tourette: I am holding out hope for Flow to pull an upset like it did at the Golden Globes, but I think that The Wild Robot will win this one.
Best Director
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez Nil
Sean Baker – Anora TL
Edward Berger – Conclave PP
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist WL PP TL
Jon M. Chu – Wicked Nil
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance WL
RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys Nil
Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two Nil
Wesley Lovell: Brady Corbet seems like the most plausible winner but Coralie Fargeat could benefit from admiration of her efforts getting horror recognized at the Oscars. Of course Sean Baker is a distinct possibility as well.
Pete Patrick: Corbet is likely but non-Oscar nominated Berger could pull off a surprise win.
Thomas La Tourette: Brady Corbet’s passion for getting The Brutalist made will probably carry over to him winning this award too.
Best Actor
Adrien Brody – The Brutalist WL PP TL
Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown WL PP TL
Daniel Craig – Queer Nil
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing Nil
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave Nil
Hugh Grant – Heretic Nil
Wesley Lovell: Brody has won several prizes from critics but I think his luck will run out here. There’s a narrative to be started that Timothée Chalamet, after a series of terrific performances, needs to be recognized for the young talent he is. Critics Choice might not make that choice but if they do, Chalamet will start a pretty important roll to the Oscars.
Pete Patrick: Ralph Fiennes also has a shot for Conclave, but I expect a close race between Brody and Chalamet.
Thomas La Tourette: Adrien Brody probably will win this for his compelling turn as a Hungarian immigrant and Holocaust survivor. His main competition comes from Timothée Chalamet whose star is rising at the right time to perhaps pull an upset, but I think this was mostly voted on long enough ago that Brody will win.
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked Nil
Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez Nil
Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths Nil
Angelina Jolie – Maria Nil
Mikey Madison – Anora WL PP TL
Demi Moore – The Substance WL PP TL
Wesley Lovell: I think they will love the welcome back reception for Demi Moore and give her their full-throated supported.
Pete Patrick: Moore is the favorite but an upset win by Madison would not be a shock.
Thomas La Tourette: After her surprising win at the Golden Globes, Demi Moore seems to be on a tear and will probably add another win here.
Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov – Anora WL
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain WL PP TL
Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing Nil
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown TL
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist PP
Denzel Washington – Gladiator II Nil
Wesley Lovell: Kieran Culkin is on a roll and I doubt it stops here. A surprise win by Yura Borisov could happen but is unlikely.
Pete Patrick: Culkin is the clear favorite but either Pearce or Edward Norton for A Complete Unknown is possible.
Thomas La Tourette: Kieran Culkin has won the most precursors so far and I expect him to continue with this one too. If The Brutalist or A Complete Unknown does a major sweep, then perhaps he will lose out to one of the actors from those films.
Best Supporting Actress
Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson Nil
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Nickel Boys Nil
Ariana Grande – Wicked TL
Margaret Qualley – The Substance Nil
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave WL PP
Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez WL PP TL
Wesley Lovell: Zoe Saldaña might not have come into Oscar season the odds-on favorite but she looks like she might be starting to steamroll.
Pete Patrick: Saldaña was the favorite at the time of voting but probably wouldn’t be even if they voted in the last week or so. Veteran Rossellini would be my pick for an upset.
Thomas La Tourette: Zoe Saldaña has racked up most of the precursors, though there is starting to be some backlash against her movie. If anyone were to pull the upset, I think it would be Ariana Grande for her fun turn in Wicked.
Best Original Screenplay
Anora WL PP TL
The Brutalist Nil
Challengers Nil
A Real Pain PP TL
September 5. Nil
The Substance WL
Wesley Lovell: Anora is the critics darling and I can imagine them pushing this narrative to get Sean Baker an Oscar.
Pete Patrick: I would be shocked if anything other than Anora or A Real Pain won this.
Thomas La Tourette: Anora has been consistently winning this category even though the film has not done well lately in other places, so it will probably win this.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Conclave WL PP TL
Dune: Part Two Nil
Emilia Pérez Nil
Nickel Boys WL
Sing Sing PP
Wicked TL
Wesley Lovell: Conclave is the only one of this sextet that makes sense. Nickel Boys Could surprise though.
Pete Patrick: This one is Conclave‘s to lose with Sing Sing probably its closest also-ran.
Thomas La Tourette: Likewise, Conclave has often won the adapted screenplay award and that should continue as well.
Best Song
Beautiful That Way – The Last Showgirl Nil
Compress/Repress – Challengers Nil
Harper and Will Go West – Will & Harper Nil
Kiss the Sky – The Wild Robot TL
El Mal – Emilia Pérez WL PP TL
Mi Camino – Emilia Pérez WL PP
Wesley Lovell: “El Mal” is the runaway success of the season and I can’t imagine them picking that over the only other Oscar nominee in the group, “Mi Camino.”
Pete Patrick: Again, at the time of voting, the two songs from Emilia Pérez were more likely than anything else.
Thomas La Tourette: “El Mal” seems to be winning everything even if no one can remember the tune, so I expect it to win here.
Best Score
The Brutalist WL PP TL
Challengers TL
Conclave PP
Dune: Part Two Nil
Emilia Pérez WL
The Wild Robot Nil
Wesley Lovell: As much as I want to say Challengers will win because of the Oscar snub, Emilia Pérez is too tempting a target. As is The Brutalist but Challengers is still a strong possibility.
Pete Patrick: Anything is possible here, but I think The Brutalist will prevail with Conclave right behind.
Thomas La Tourette: Challengers won the Golden Globe but was not nominated for an Oscar. I think it might sneak out a victory over the presumed Oscar favorite, The Brutalist.
Best Editing
Anora PP
Challengers WL TL
Conclave Nil
The Brutalist PP TL
Dune: Part Two Nil
September 5. WL
Wesley Lovell: Challengers seems like a more likely win in this category with so few films that could be considered tightly edited with a lot of excitement. September 5 is also possible. Of course, if they are as Oscar-crazy as everyone claims them to be, only an Oscar nominee will win.
Pete Patrick: Challengers could be a surprise win here, but I think it’s between The Brutalist and Anora.
Thomas La Tourette: Non-Oscar nominated Challengers might also beat out The Brutalist here too.
Best Cinematography
The Brutalist PP TL
Conclave Nil
Dune: Part Two WL
Nickel Boys PP TL
Nosferatu WL
Wicked Nil
Wesley Lovell: This is a chance for them to stand up to the ASC and recognize Nickel Boys. They won’t. They’ll go for one of the obvious ones, Dune or Nosferatu.
Pete Patrick: Probably The Brutalist, but Nickel Boys or Nosferatu could also win this one.
Thomas La Tourette: The Brutalist seems the likely winner.
Best Production Design
The Brutalist WL PP TL
Conclave PP
Dune: Part Two Nil
Gladiator II Nil
Nosferatu WL
Wicked TL
Wesley Lovell: The Brutalist seems a better bet here than Nosferatu or Wicked. You don’t make a film about an architect and name it after an architectural style and not appeal on that basis.
Pete Patrick: All the nominees here are strong contenders, but I’d guess that it’s between The Brutalist and Conclave for the win.
Thomas La Tourette: Wicked’s impressive sets should win.
Best Costume Design
Conclave Nil
Dune: Part Two Nil
Gladiator II TL
Maria Nil
Nosferatu WL PP
Wicked WL PP TL
Wesley Lovell: Wicked is the one of a handful of sure things. An upset would be surprising.
Pete Patrick: Wicked should win this easily with Nosferatu coming in a distant second.
Thomas La Tourette: Wicked should easily win this as well.
Best Hair & Makeup
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice Nil
A Different Man WL
Dune: Part Two Nil
Nosferatu PP
The Substance WL PP TL
Wicked TL
Wesley Lovell: The Substance has the most obvious makeup, though that’s saying a lot considering its competitors. I think it may well win with this group. Whether it wins the Oscar or not is open for debate but I’m starting to lean its direction.
Pete Patrick: Look to one of the horror films to take this one, probably The Substance over Nosferatu.
Thomas La Tourette: The Substance has become the front runner in this category and will probably win.
Best Visual Effects
Better Man Nil
Dune: Part Two WL PP TL
Gladiator II PP
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes WL TL
The Substance Nil
Wicked Nil
Wesley Lovell: Dune: Part Two seems like the odds-on favorite.
Pete Patrick: Either of the spectacles, Dune: Part Two or Gladiator II seem likely to win this one.
Thomas La Tourette: The backlash against Emilia Pérez is probably more recent than most of the voting, so I expect it to still win. If it is upset, I would expect that to be by I’m Still Here.
Best Foreign Language Film
All We Imagine as Light Nil
Emilia Pérez WL PP TL
Flow Nil
I’m Still Here WL PP TL
Kneecap Nil
The Seed of the Sacred Fig Nil
Wesley Lovell: Emilia Pérez still looks like the likely winner. Best Picture Oscar nominee I’m Still Here could be an appealing alternative.
Pete Patrick: Emilia Pérez was still running at full steam during the voting, with I’m Still Here a distant second.
Thomas La Tourette: I have not seen any of these performances, so will just guess on them.
Best Young Actor / Actress
Alyla Browne – Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga WL
Elliott Heffernan – Blitz TL
Maisy Stella – My Old Ass Nil
Izaac Wang – Dìdi WL PP TL
Alisha Weir – Abigail Nil
Zoe Ziegler – Janet Planet PP
Wesley Lovell: This is a challenging category as none of these features is an Oscar nominee. As such, we have to look at films that were critically popular, as all of them were. It could be any one of them but I settled on Izaac Wang because of the nature of his film.
Pete Patrick: Likely to be either Wang or Ziegler.
Thomas La Tourette: I have not seen any of these performances, so will just guess on them.
Best Acting Ensemble
Anora WL PP
Conclave WL PP TL
Emilia Pérez Nil
Saturday Night Nil
Sing Sing Nil
Wicked TL
Wesley Lovell: Another category the Oscars don’t have, so we’re left to see which cast has the biggest names. If it weren’t for them no longer wanting to recognize Gascón, I would have said Emilia Pérez was the winner. However, Conclave or Anora or Wicked are the likely top choices now.
Pete Patrick: This one seems like toss-up between Conclave and Anora.
Thomas La Tourette: Wicked would seem to have the most universally loved cast, so I could picture it winning over the mostly all male Conclave.
Best Comedy
Deadpool & Wolverine WL TL
Hit Man Nil
My Old Ass PP
A Real Pain WL TL
Saturday Night PP
Thelma Nil
Wesley Lovell: The last of the categories not at the Oscars and no Best Picture nominees in the bunch. A Real Pain was likely the closest of these to a nomination but I could also see them going for Deadpool & Wolverine and Hit Man.
Pete Patrick: Should be A Real Pain but Saturday Night could upset.
Thomas La Tourette: A Real Pain is the most serious of the comedy films which may help it win.
