It’s time for the Critics Choice Awards. Who will win? Will they be the Oscar frontrunners or ephemeral critics’ picks? Bet on the former, but hope for the latter.

CRITICS CHOICE AWARDS

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: I always have a hard time mustering interest in this group’s selections. Sure, they are ostensibly a critics organization, but they too often seem to be focused on predicting the Oscars rather than celebrating the best of the year. Occasionally, there will be a great choice that bucks trends, but most of the time they find a way to foreshadow the Oscars. It’s a larger organization, so saying they have a universal aim is dismissive and I will always defend them on that point.
Pete Patrick: This organization is comprised of serious critics as well as those who identify more accurately as awards watchers. The former think like many of the other awards groups out there. The latter live to predict the Oscars. This year, both groups have zeroed in on the same films so there shouldn’t be too many surprises.
Tripp Burton: Did not provide predictions or commentary.
Thomas La Tourette: I do not know these awards as well as some, but figure they may go towards the predicted Oscar favorites for the most part.

Predictions & Individual Commentary

Best Picture

American Fiction
Barbie
The Color Purple
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Maestro
Oppenheimer (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Past Lives (RU:Peter)
Poor Things
Saltburn

Wesley Lovell: Oppenheimer is the safe bet and I can’t imagine anything surpassing it. That said, Killers of the Flower Moon and Poor Things are the biggest threats.
Pete Patrick: Oppenheimer should have this one in the bag, but critical favorite Past Lives could pull a surprise win.
Thomas La Tourette: Oppenheimer as the Golden Globes showed is still the film to beat.

Best Animated Feature

The Boy and the Heron (Peter, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Elemental
Nimona
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Wish

Wesley Lovell: The Golden Globes have a more international flavor while the Critics Choice voters are largely American. That might not mean much, but it could be the difference between Spider-Man picking up its first televised prize or a steamroll from Hayao Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron starting now.
Pete Patrick: A close call between two well-regarded animated films but the more innovative Boy and the Heron should prevail over the Spider-Man sequel.
Thomas La Tourette: I am wondering if the tide is turning towards The Boy and the Heron rather than the latest Spider-Man film.

Best Director

Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Greta Gerwig – Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things
Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Alexander Payne – The Holdovers
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Christopher Nolan is going to get his honor and the Critics Choice Association is going to support that decision easily.
Pete Patrick: Nolan should win easily unless they choose to give a sentimental award to Scorsese.
Thomas La Tourette: Christopher Nolan should continue his winning ways.

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon
Colman Domingo – Rustin
Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

Wesley Lovell: Cillian Murphy didn’t seem like he was going to be a consensus winner, but he’s slowly emerging as such. Paul Giamatti or Jeffrey Wright could surprise, though.
Pete Patrick: A close call between Golden Globe winners Murphy and Giamatti could go to either one, but I think Murphy has the momentum now.
Thomas La Tourette: Most any of them could win, but Cillian Murphy is on a roll right now with Paul Giamatti and Jeffrey Wright nipping at his heels.

Best Actress

Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Lee – Past Lives
Carey Mulligan – Maestro
Margot Robbie – Barbie
Emma Stone – Poor Things (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Narrative alone elevates Lily Gladstone to victor. A surprise victory by Emma Stone could change the calculus.
Pete Patrick: Gladstone is virtually unstoppable at this point, but Stone is positioned to upset.
Thomas La Tourette: Lily Gladstone seems the likely choice, but look for Emma Stone to be in a close second spot.

Best Supporting Actor

Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Ryan Gosling – Barbie (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Charles Melton – May December
Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things

Wesley Lovell: Robert Downey Jr. seems to be the consolidating choice and unless they go with Ryan Gosling, I think the race might start ending with Downey Jr.’s second televised prize.
Pete Patrick: Downey has this one in the bag. Gosling is next in line, but it isn’t close.
Thomas La Tourette: I see no reason why Robert Downey Jr. would not win this.

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer (RU:Thomas)
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
America Ferrera – Barbie
Jodie Foster – Nyad
Julianne Moore – May December
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Da’Vine Joy Randolph is on a streak and I don’t see them jumping in the way. If they do, it’s either for Danielle Brooks or Emily Blunt, though I could see the lack of SAG nomination for America Ferrera boost her chances here.
Pete Patrick: Randolph has it clinched. I’m throwing in Brooks just to fill the space.
Thomas La Tourette: I do not see anyone but Da’Vine Joy Randolph winning here.

Best Original Screenplay

Air
Barbie (Wesley, Thomas)
The Holdovers (Peter, RU:Thomas)
Maestro
May December
Past Lives (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Barbie could well pick up her last Best Original Screenplay prize before the Oscars where they’ll compete in and lose in Best Adapted Screenplay. Then again, the more traditional The Holdovers or Past Lives could also win.
Pete Patrick: The Holdovers should be an easy winner here, but Past Lives is equally beloved, so it does pose a threat.
Thomas La Tourette: The Holdovers was the more serious movie, but I could see Barbie winning it. Past Lives is also a possibility.

Best Adapted Screenplay

All of Us Strangers (RU:Peter)
American Fiction (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Saltburn

Wesley Lovell: Oppenheimer is leading for Best Picture and I think it’s got the win here. Watch out for American Fiction as that film seems to have a lot of fans and works largely because of its screenplay.
Pete Patrick: Oppenheimer is the likely winner, but All of Us Strangers could pull off a surprise.
Thomas La Tourette: Oppenheimer seems the more likely choice, though American Fiction and Killers of the Flower Moon might sneak by it.

Best Song

Dance the Night – Barbie
I’m Just Ken – Barbie (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Peaches – The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Road to Freedom – Rustin
This Wish – Wish
What Was I Made For? – Barbie (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: A lot of love for “I’m Just Ken” could translate into a victory, but every time I hear “What Was I Made For?” I instantly tear-up and that might well be what gives it the victory.
Pete Patrick: One of the Barbie songs will win here. “What Was I Made For?” is the most likely of the two at this point.
Thomas La Tourette: One of the Barbie songs seems most likely to win, with the edge going to “What Was I Made For?”

Best Score

Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Poor Things (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Society of the Snow (RU:Thomas)
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Wesley Lovell: Oppenheimer has been winning all season but any of the other films could easily win because they’ve all been feted heavily.
Pete Patrick: Oppenheimer is in a good position to win this one as well. Poor Things is a distant possibility.
Thomas La Tourette: Oppenheimer seems likely to repeat its Golden Globe win here.

Best Editing

Air
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon (RU:Peter)
Maestro
Oppenheimer (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Poor Things (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Some might be tempted to give Thelma Schoonmaker another award, but Oppenheimer seems the more obvious choice to win this category. That said, if there’s a come-from-behind selection, Poor Things could sneak in a victory.
Pete Patrick: Oppenheimer should continue its sweep here, with Killers of the Flower Moon also possible.
Thomas La Tourette: Oppenheimer was never boring at three hours, which says something about the editing. If it does not go there, then either Poor Things or Barbie might win.

Best Cinematography

Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro (RU:Wesley)
Oppenheimer (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Poor Things (RU:Thomas)
Saltburn (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: This will be a tough choice with votes going all over the place. In the end, I think Oppenheimer wins out due to its mix of color and black-and-white segments. Maestro, Poor Things (another film in both color and black-and-white), and Killers of the Flower Moon also have a shot.
Pete Patrick: Barring a Saltburn shock, Oppenheimer should take this one, too.
Thomas La Tourette: Oppenheimer again seems the likely winner.

Best Production Design

Asteroid City
Barbie (Wesley, Thomas)
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Saltburn (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Another film that had to build off existing playsets, Barbie‘s impressive Barbieland set might just be enough to garner this prize, but Poor Things and Oppenheimer also have a chance as more traditional choices.
Pete Patrick: Let’s give this one to Poor Things with Saltburn next in line.
Thomas La Tourette: Barbie and Poor Things had the most fantastical sets, which might lead to one of them winning over Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon.

Best Costume Design

Barbie (Wesley, Peter, RU:Thomas)
The Color Purple
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Poor Things (Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Wonka

Wesley Lovell: Barbie has to get some awards and the costume design is terrific, especially needing to copy actual Barbie outfits into the realm of the film. However, its modern setting might hurt its chances and give a more traditional period-esque choice like Poor Things the win.
Pete Patrick: Anything can take this one, so why not Barbie with Poor Things as an alternative?
Thomas La Tourette: Again, the bright fashions of Poor Things is battling it out with Barbie and I wonder if Poor Things has the edge.

Best Hair & Makeup

Barbie (Peter, RU:Wesley)
The Color Purple
Maestro (Thomas)
Oppenheimer
Poor Things (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Priscilla

Wesley Lovell: Oppenheimer has impressive, but subtle work while Poor Things has very obvious work. Barbie also has a lot of strong work, but many might consider it too mainstream for this award. Of course, Maestro could also contend. I’m going to pick Poor Things because it’s more obvious, but wouldn’t be surprised at any of the other three I mentioned winning.
Pete Patrick: This is another one they could throw to Barbie despite its absence from Oscar’s shortlist, with Poor Things also possible.
Thomas La Tourette: Maestro may come out on top because of turning Bradley Cooper into Leonard Bernstein, though Poor Things will definitely be in the mix.

Best Visual Effects

The Creator (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Thomas)
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer (Wesley)
Poor Things (Peter)
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Oppenheimer didn’t make the shortlist, so that could hurt its chances, but I think it’s popular enough that enough members will rebuke the Academy’s shortlist and go with it for the win. That said, The Creator is a more traditional visual effects winner, so it could come out on top.
Pete Patrick: Probably Poor Things unless they decide to give it the animated Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.
Thomas La Tourette: Guardians of the Galaxy may prevail, but it could go to anyone.

Best Foreign Language Film

Anatomy of a Fall (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Godzilla Minus One (RU:Wesley)
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Taste of Things
The Zone of Interest (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: While all of these titles are critically acclaimed, two of them are Best Picture contenders at the Oscars. While The Zone of Interest is the only one that will be eligible for Best International Feature, I believe Anatomy of a Fall has the upper hand. Then again, these guys have gone off the beaten path before and Godzilla Minus One is just the kind of film they could burnish their independent chops with.
Pete Patrick: I think they’ll mimic the Golden Globes here and give to Oscar-ineligible Anatomy of a Fall rather than try to predict the Oscars with The Zone of Interest, but they could do either one.
Thomas La Tourette: Anatomy of a Fall was amazing and could easily win in a strong field.

Best Young Actor / Actress

Abby Ryder Fortson – Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Ariana Greenblatt – Barbie (RU:Peter)
Calah Lane – Wonka
Milo Machado Graner – Anatomy of a Fall
Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers (Wesley, Thomas)
Madeleine Yuna Voyles – The Creator

Wesley Lovell: The first of three categories that aren’t at the Oscars and a place for them to be unique. Are You There God? is one of the surprise hits of the year and that puts Abby Ryder Fortson high on the list of potential winners, but Dominic Sessa is in a Best Picture nominee and being more mature as an actor will likely garner more votes, though it could be close if they want to honor a precocious pre-teen.
Pete Patrick: One of the two young actresses, Fortson or Greenblatt, is likely to take it over the more highly visible Dominic Sessa.
Thomas La Tourette: Dominic Sessa seems close to an Oscar nomination for his work in The Holdovers, so he seems the likely winner.

Best Acting Ensemble

Air
Barbie (Peter, RU:Wesley)
The Color Purple
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon (RU:Thomas)
Oppenheimer (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Another category without an Academy correlation, large or impressive casts get their attention, especially when they have big names in them. Barbie and Oppenheimer probably qualify and considering the Oppenheimer juggernaut, I suspect it will win, but this could be another place to recognize the monolith that is Barbie.
Pete Patrick: Just a hunch, but I think they’ll want to see the Barbie cast on stage more than Oppenheimer‘s for this one.
Thomas La Tourette: I will give the edge to Oppenheimer.

Best Comedy

American Fiction
Barbie (Wesley, Thomas)
Bottoms
The Holdovers (Peter)
No Hard Feelings
Poor Things (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Since there is no Oscar category for this, this is one of those places they tend to favor off-beat picks. That said, when major Oscar contenders are here, sometimes they have given a prize to a film that won’t win Best Picture and vice versa. That’s why I think Barbie is the frontrunner. If they go for the more acclaimed film, it could be Poor Things or The Holdovers, but I suspect a lot of members will put their balloting behind Barbie just so it doesn’t become an afterthought.
Pete Patrick: The Holdovers is beloved. Poor Things isn’t, but either could win.
Thomas La Tourette: This feels like it should go to Barbie, but as the Golden Globes showed, that might not happen.