This is the first major guild to announce winners this year and it could tell us a lot about what’s going through the minds of Oscar voters.

DIRECTORS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS

Best Director

Greta Gerwig – Barbie (RU:Wesley)
Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things
Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Alexander Payne – The Holdovers
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: This is where we’ll know if the rebellion has begun. Christopher Nolan has been the dominant force in the precursors and is certainly the frontrunner for this and the Oscar (after years of being ignored by both groups). Yet Greta Gerwig was the actual snub-ee this year and with all the furor over the DGA nominating her but ignoring her at the Oscars, that could generate a lot of protest votes. While I still think Nolan will carry it out in the end, a Gerwig shocker could set the internet ablaze…or at least the Academy.
Pete Patrick: This should easily go to Oscar frontrunner Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer unless they want to give a sentimental award to Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon.
Thomas La Tourette: I cannot see anyone but Christopher Nolan winning this for his excellent work on Oppenheimer. It would be a gigantic upset if he does not win.

Best First Feature

Cord Jefferson – American Fiction (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Manuella Martelli – Chile ’76
Noora Niasari – Shayda
A.V. Rockwell – A Thousand and One
Celine Song – Past Lives (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Two of these titles are on the Best Picture slate at the Oscars, so it comes down to the two of them. While Cord Jefferson directs a comedy, Celine Song has a romantic drama on offering and considering the complexity of each, it could come down to the wire. While I’d like to go with Jefferson, Song has significantly more precursor citations and I suspect that’s the direction they’ll go.
Pete Patrick: Celine Song has been the frontrunner for this one all year for Past Lives, but Cord Jefferson could be a surprise winner for late contender, American Fiction, which is also a Best Picture Oscar nominee.
Thomas La Tourette: This is between Celine Song and Cord Jefferson who both made striking films in their debut features. I will give the edge to Song’s Past Lives as it seemed to resonate with people and is still being talked about seven months after it was released.

Best Documentary Director

Moses Bwayo, Christopher Sharp – Bobi Wine: The People’s President
Mstyslav Chernov – 20 Days in Mariupol (Wesley, Peter, RU:Thomas)
Madeleine Gavin – Beyond Utopia
Davis Guggenheim – Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
D. Smith – Kokomo City

Wesley Lovell: I’m really not sure how this will go. Three of these are Oscar nominees but the battle comes down to one between the acclaimed Davis Guggenheim, who was not-so-surprisingly snubbed by the Academy, and the frontrunner for the Oscar for Best Documentary Feature (now that Still is out of the way). I think it will go to the more challenging 20 Days in Mariupol.
Pete Patrick: This should easily go to the Ukrainian war documentary 20 Days in Mariupol. The closest runner-up is probably Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie which Oscar failed to nominate.
Thomas La Tourette: Even though I believe that 20 Days in Mariupol will win the Oscar, I think Still will win here as it is a heartfelt movie about a beloved Hollywood star.