The DGA has picked the Oscar winner so often that you have to take any choices they make as de facto endorsements of the future Oscar winner. At least in the main category. The others don’t have as much impact/success.

DIRECTORS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS

Legend:

Winner Predictions:
Wesley Lovell Pete Patrick Thomas LaTourrette

Runner-Up Predictions:
Wesley Lovell Pete Patrick Thomas LaTourrette

Best Director

Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez Nil
Sean Baker – Anora PP
Edward Berger – Conclave Nil
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist WL PP TL
James Mangold – A Complete Unknown WL TL

Wesley Lovell: Brady Corbet has been on a roll. I see no reason to believe it won’t continue. That said, if there’s a group more likely to recognize a longtime career, then James Mangold may be the winner.
Pete Patrick: The Brutalist‘s Brady Corbet is the likely winner with Anora‘s Sean Baker and Conclave‘s non-Oscar nominated Edward Berger right behind.
Thomas La Tourette: I would be surprised if anyone but Brady Corbet won this for his labor of love, The Brutalist. He seems to be the “it” director of the moment. If anyone were to upset, it might be James Mangold whose film A Complete Unknown has the least interesting direction of the group but is peaking in popularity at the right time. If the non-Oscar nominated Edward Berger wins for Conclave, then that will likely become the favorite to win best picture.

Best First Feature

Payal Kapadia – All We Imagine as Light WL PP TL
Megan Park – My Old Ass Nil
RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys WL PP TL
Halfdan Ullmann Tøndel – Armand Nil
Sean Wang – Dìdi Nil

Wesley Lovell: It’s between Payal Kapadia and RaMell Ross. Ross has gotten the most precursor love but Kapadia has that surprise Golden Globe nomination while Nickel Boys has suffered greatly with the larger, industry-based groups.
Pete Patrick: This seems to be RaMell Ross’ to lose but Payal Kapadia could pull an upset.  No one else is likely.
Thomas La Tourette: This looks like a race between only two people, Payal Kapadia and RaMell Ross, and it could easily go to either of them. Nickel Boys has the more immersive direction, so that is why it might win this award.

Best Documentary Director

Brendan Bellomo, Slava Leontyev – Porcelain War WL TL
Julian Brave Noisecat & Emily Kassie – Sugarcane WL PP TL
Johan Grimonprez – Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat Nil
Ibrahim Nash’at – Hollywoodgate PP
Natalie Rae, Angela Patton – Daughters Nil

Wesley Lovell: Three of these are Oscar nominees and without much idea which way the DGA would consider voting, I’m going with Porcelain War over Sugarcane but wouldn’t be surprised for the reverse or even for one of the other contenders to pull through.
Pete Patrick: Sadly, I know nothing about any of these films and am just guessing here.
Thomas La Tourette: All of these were long listed by the Academy, with three of them scoring Oscar nominations for documentary feature, so that does not whittle down the chances of any of them. I will go with Sugarcane which sounds like the most searing of the films, though all cover pretty serious issues.