Predictions: First 97th Oscars Winners

Now that we’ve had time to review the nominations and get a reading on the landscape, here are our first winner predictions of the 97th Oscars. (Editor’s Note: Thomas’ commentary has been added)

INTRODUCTIONS

Wesley Lovell: I did well predicting most categories except for the documentary and short film ones. I took a bath there. Many of my sixth-place suggestions made it through, so I do feel somewhat justified in that. As to who will win? Clearly the anti-Brutalist buzz was just chatter. It seems very clear that it is well liked and considering its subject matter, I could see it going all the way but without a lot of wins as its chances in various categories are rather dim.
Pete Patrick: Nominations went pretty much as I expected with the biggest surprises being I’m Still Here in Best Picture and Flow in International Feature.
Thomas La Tourette: As always there were surprises with the Oscar nominations. Nothing totally earth shattering, but some were pretty hefty. Emilia Pérez did better than expected with 13 nominations, the most ever for a non-English language film. That haul also ties it for the second most-nominated film. The Brutalist and Wicked follow with 10 each with A Complete Unknown and Conclave not far behind with eight. Best picture went pretty much as expected, though the inclusion of the Brazilian I’m Still Here was a shock. As the Academy membership becomes more global, there have been more non-English language films showing up here, but this one was not on anyone’s radar. Trying to figure out what might win for best picture is as murky as ever. Anora, The Brutalist, and Emilia Pérez scored all four major noms, picture, director, screenplay, and editing which bolsters the chances of one of them prevailing. Conclave not getting a best director nomination hurts its chances for a win. Wicked did not score one for director or adapted screenplay which might hurt its chances. A Complete Unknown did score a surprise nom for director but is missing out on editing, and most best picture nominees have also been nominated for editing. In the acting categories, the inclusion of both Sebastian Stan and Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice does come as a mild surprise. It will make some people have to watch a film about the young Donald Trump which I imagine they were avoiding doing. Some big names were left out like Daniel Craig, Angelina Jolie, Nicole Kidman, Pamela Anderson, and Jamie Lee Curtis, but it was a pretty strong year in the acting categories. Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Substance, and Nosferatu all outperformed their expectations while Dune: Part Two definitely did not do as well as it hoped. It will win for visual effects and perhaps for sound, but it will not do as well as the original when it comes to Oscar performance. A few other categories already feel like the winners are ready to be announced even though this was just the nominations. Emilia Pérez seemingly has International Film sewn up, as well as supporting actress, and song. It will be strong contender to win best picture as well. Kieran Culkin has practically swept supporting actor precursors. Demi Moore went form being an afterthought to front runner in one night. But as was shown today, surprises happen, so perhaps these are not as set as I imagine right now. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

KEY:

Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists
Appears on One Lists

Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton Thomas LaTourrette

Best Picture

Winner Predictions

Anora
The Brutalist (WL O) (TL O)
A Complete Unknown (PP O)
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked

Runner-Up Predictions

The Brutalist (PP O)
Emilia Pérez (WL O) (TL O)

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Wesley Lovell: While I didn’t see I’m Still Here coming, I was happy that Nickel Boys managed to hang on even if it didn’t get the love it deserved. Of the other eight films, all of them have some claim to being potential contenders. So, let’s start with films that have the major collection of nominations (acting, directing, writing, and editing). Anora, The Brutalist, and Emilia Pérez have all of them, which puts them in the lead for a win. The Brutalist is the film I think will win of these three. Then there are four titles that have three of the four essentials. Conclave is missing Directing, A Complete Unknown and The Substance are missing editing. Wicked is missing directing and screenwriting. Nickel Boys has only screenwriting, I’m Still Here has only acting. Dune: Part Two has none of them.
Pete Patrick: The Bob Dylan biopic is the current hot ticket whereas The Brutalist which has dominated early awards seems to have played itself out.
Thomas La Tourrette: There are cases to be made for several films that could win this. Emilia Perez got the most nominations and Wicked has been the most popular. Wicked also fills the role of the feel-good movie of the moment. Anora snuck in with several major nominations and cannot be ruled out. A Complete Unknown has been peaking at the right time too which could help its chances. But I still think it will go to the epic The Brutalist. Will see if I still feel that way after I see it.

Best Animated Feature

Winner Predictions

Flow (TL O)
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot (WL O) (PP O)

Runner-Up Predictions

Flow (WL O) (PP O)
The Wild Robot (TL O)

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Wesley Lovell: This will be between The Wild Robot and Flow and while I think it will be neck-and-neck, The Wild Robot should win out.
Pete Patrick: Flow‘s nominations for both Best Animated and International Feature would seem to give it a leg up but I still think The Wild Robot will prevail.
Thomas La Tourrette: The Wild Robot will probably win, but I am sticking with the more intriguing Flow which told a different story than anything I had seen in animation before. It won the Golden Globe, so perhaps it can repeat here.

Best Directing

Winner Predictions

Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker – Anora
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
James Mangold – A Complete Unknown

Runner-Up Predictions

Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez (WL O) (TL O)
James Mangold – A Complete Unknown (PP O)

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Wesley Lovell: This category usually goes hand-in-hand with Best Picture and that’s why I have Brady Corbet in the lead but anything is possible this year.
Pete Patrick: Corbet is probably still the frontrunner in this category, but I wouldn’t completely cut out veteran Mangold who most of the pundits summarily dismissed.
Thomas La Tourrette: Even with a couple of AI issues being brought up about The Brutalist right now, I think Brady Corbet will win this handily.

Best Actor

Winner Predictions

Adrien Brody – The Brutalist (TL O)
Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Uknown (WL O) (PP O)
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice

Runner-Up Predictions

Adrien Brody – The Brutalist (WL O) (PP O)
Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Uknown (TL O)

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Wesley Lovell: With the success of A Complete Unknown in the nominations and Adrien Brody already having an Oscar, I suspect they will want to give it to Timothée Chalamet who had not one but two major efforts released this year.
Pete Patrick: Chalamet will likely become the youngest winner ever, taking the title away from Brody who won it 22 years ago.
Thomas La Tourrette: Adrien Brody is still the person to beat as he tries for his second Oscar. Timothée Chalamet, who would become the youngest winner in this category over Adrien Brody’s win for The Pianist, will definitely be challenging him, but I am not sure that he will surpass him.

Best Actress

Winner Predictions

Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison – Mikey Madison
Demi Moore – The Substance (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
Fernanda Torres – Fernanda Torres

Runner-Up Predictions

Cynthia Erivo – Wicked (WL O)
Fernanda Torres – Fernanda Torres (PP O) (TL O)

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Wesley Lovell: Demi Moore’s Golden Globes acceptance speech likely sealed her win, though don’t count out Cynthia Erivo or Fernanda Torres or even Karla Sofía Gascón if the Academy wants to send a message.
Pete Patrick: Moore should be an easy winner here with fellow Golden Globe winner Torres her biggest threat.
Thomas La Tourrette: Demi Moore’s win and speech at the Golden Globes cemented her spot as the new front runner for the Oscar. She still seems the likely winner, though Fernanda Torres’ win there for the Brazilian I’m Still There has added some more competition to the race. Mikey Madison cannot be counted out either.

Best Supporting Actor

Winner Predictions

Yura Borisov – Anora
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice

Runner-Up Predictions

Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown (PP O) (TL O)
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist (WL O)

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Wesley Lovell: I just can’t imagine anyone other than Culkin winning. He’s had the lead all season and should there be a surprise winner, it will be either Norton or Pearce, neither of whom have ever won before (or been nominated in Pearce’s case).
Pete Patrick: Culkin is the closest to a sure thing in any acting category this year so former nominee Norton will likely go home emptyhanded again.
Thomas La Tourrette: It is unlikely that anything will derail Kieran Culkin’s march to the Oscar podium.

Best Supporting Actress

Winner Predictions

Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande – Wicked
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave (PP O)
Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez (WL O) (TL O)

Runner-Up Predictions

Ariana Grande – Wicked (TL O)
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave (WL O)
Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez (PP O)

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Wesley Lovell: If we had said Zoe Saldaña would be this year’s Oscar winner at the beginning of the year, I would have laughed. I’m not laughing anymore.
Pete Patrick: Like mother, like daughter. Saldaña is the favorite, but Rossellini is a second-generation legend whose mother Ingrid Bergman won her third Oscar exactly fifty years ago in a similar small role so expect history to repeat itself.
Thomas La Tourrette: Zoe Saldaña should continue on her winning streak with an Oscar as well.

Best Original Screenplay

Winner Predictions

Anora (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
September 5
The Substance

Runner-Up Predictions

The Brutalist (WL O) (TL O)
A Real Pain (PP O)

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Wesley Lovell: Anora doesn’t realistically have any other places to win at, so this will likely be where they opt to give it a prize.
Pete Patrick: Anora is the presumed favorite with A Real Pain seemingly the only other nominee that can win this one.
Thomas La Tourrette: I was not that fond of Anora, but it is the likely winner here.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Winner Predictions

A Complete Unknown (WL O)
Conclave (PP O) (TL O)
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing

Runner-Up Predictions

A Complete Unknown (PP O) (TL O)
Emilia Pérez (WL O)

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Wesley Lovell: This will be tough. There are reasons why all of these but perhaps Sing Sing could win, namely they are all Best Picture nominees. I’m leaning towards A Complete Unknown right now, but I’m not at all certain in that stance.
Pete Patrick: This one is Conclave‘s to lose but A Complete Unknown could pull another surpise here.
Thomas La Tourrette: Conclave still feels like the winner here.

Best Original Song

Winner Predictions

The Journey – The Six Triple Eight
Like a Bird – Sing Sing
El Mal – Emilia Pérez (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
Mi Camino – Emilia Pérez
Never Too Late – Elton John: Never Too Late

Runner-Up Predictions

The Journey – The Six Triple Eight (WL O)
Never Too Late – Elton John: Never Too Late (PP O) (TL O)

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Wesley Lovell: “El Mal” has the momentum and unless it splits the key vote with “Mi Camino,” It should win.
Pete Patrick: Probably “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez but they do love Elton John so maybe there will an upset here.
Thomas La Tourrette: “El Mal” has been winning the lion’s share of the awards, so I expect it to take this one too.

Best Original Score

Winner Predictions

The Brutalist (PP O) (TL O)
Conclave
Emilia Pérez (WL O)
Wicked
The Wild Robot

Runner-Up Predictions

The Brutalist (WL O)
Conclave (PP O) (TL O)

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Wesley Lovell: Emilia Pérez seems to be the film most likely to translate to a win but The Brutalist is more original and Wicked is a surprise nominee but wouldn’t be a surprising winner all things considered.
Pete Patrick: Any of the nominees except Wicked seems possible here but I’m going with The Brutalist or Conclave.
Thomas La Tourrette: The Brutalist looks poised to win this, especially since the Golden Globe winner Challengers did not make the ballot.

Best Film Editing

Winner Predictions

Anora (PP O)
The Brutalist (TL O)
Conclave
Emilia Pérez (WL O)
Wicked

Runner-Up Predictions

The Brutalist (WL O)
Conclave (PP O) (TL O)

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Wesley Lovell: Of the nominees, Emilia Pérez has the right profile for a win but that doesn’t mean it won’t be a tight race or that I won’t change my mind as more facts come into evidence.
Pete Patrick: I think they will either go with the frenetic editing of Anora or the classic style of Conclave.
Thomas La Tourrette: Before Conclave missed out on a directing nomination, I expected it to win here. Now I think it might go to The Brutalist even though directors who do their own editing do not often win this.

Best Cinematography

Winner Predictions

The Brutalist (TL O)
Dune: Part Two (WL O)
Emilia Pérez
Maria
Nosferatu (PP O)

Runner-Up Predictions

The Brutalist (PP O)
Dune: Part Two (TL O)
Nosferatu (WL O)

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Wesley Lovell: Dune: Part Two may not have won much but I still think it can win here, though Nosferatu will be stiff competition. We’ll see what ASC says.
Pete Patrick: I’m expecting a bit of a surprise here with Nosferatu overtaking The Brutalist.
Thomas La Tourrette: From what I hear, The Brutalist has stunning camera work and it should prevail here.

Best Production Design

Winner Predictions

The Brutalist (WL O)
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked (PP O) (TL O)

Runner-Up Predictions

The Brutalist (TL O)
Nosferatu (PP O)
Wicked (WL O)

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Wesley Lovell: While I initially thought Wicked would win this, the past victories by Lincoln and There Will Be Blood suggest that The Brutalist has a good chance of taking it. Though, it has to be said that Production Design and Costume Design are very frequently linked.
Pete Patrick: They’re not going to let Wicked go home emptyhanded so here and in costume design is where they will most likely give it something.
Thomas La Tourrette: Even though it is a film about architecture, I think The Brutalist will lose this to the fanciful work of Wicked.

Best Costume Design

Winner Predictions

A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)

Runner-Up Predictions

Nosferatu (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)

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Wesley Lovell: Wicked should have no problem taking this one.
Pete Patrick: Wicked‘s other likely win.
Thomas La Tourrette: The colorful costumes of Wicked should easily win this award.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Winner Predictions

A Different Man (WL O)
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu (PP O)
The Substance (TL O)
Wicked

Runner-Up Predictions

Nosferatu (WL O)
The Substance (PP O)
Wicked (TL O)

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Wesley Lovell: I still don’t understand the Emilia Pérez nomination but it could win. That said, A Different Man has the most obvious makeup and oftentimes that’s sufficient to give a film the win.
Pete Patrick: Horror will have its day with Nosferatu and The Substance battling it out for this one
Thomas La Tourrette: The Substance probably has this in the bag.

Best Sound

Winner Predictions

A Complete Unknown (PP O)
Dune: Part Two (WL O) (TL O)
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot

Runner-Up Predictions

Emilia Pérez (WL O) (PP O)
Wicked (TL O)

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Wesley Lovell: Dune: Part Two may have taken a shellacking with the nominations but it should still do well in its two heavy craft categories.
Pete Patrick: Probably A Complete Unknown but Emilia Pérez is a strong possibility.
Thomas La Tourrette: This should prove an interesting battle between Dune and Wicked, though A Complete Unknown is waiting on the sidelines hoping to pull off an upset.

Best Visual Effects

Winner Predictions

Alien: Romulus
Better Man (PP O)
Dune: Part Two (WL O) (TL O)
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked

Runner-Up Predictions

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)

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Wesley Lovell: It may have come in far lower than expected but Dune: Part Two may be one of the few multi-Oscar-winning films.
Pete Patrick: Pure guesswork, the winner could be any one of the five.
Thomas La Tourrette: This is the one award that Dune: Part Two is guaranteed to win.

Best International Feature

Winner Predictions

Emilia Pérez (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
Flow
The Girl with the Needle
I’m Still Here
The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Runner-Up Predictions

I’m Still Here (WL O) (PP O)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (TL O)

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Wesley Lovell: You would be a fool to predict anything but Emilia Pérez. Of course, if they plan on voting it for Best Picture, they might go elsewhere in this category.
Pete Patrick: Emilia Pérez is the likely winner, but I’m Still Here could pull off a surprise win.
Thomas La Tourrette: I would be surprised if anything can stop the juggernaut of Emilia Pérez in this category.

Best Documentary Feature

Winner Predictions

Black Box Diaries (PP O)
No Other Land (TL O)
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Sugarcane (WL O)

Runner-Up Predictions

No Other Land (WL O) (PP O)
Sugarcane (TL O)

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Wesley Lovell: With so many of the most tempting predictions in this category out of the way, there aren’t many options left. No Other Land may be stronger than Sugarcane but I’m still going with the latter for now.
Pete Patrick: Pure guesswork.
Thomas La Tourrette: I have heard great things about No Other Land so expect it to win. But all five are supposed to be good.

Best Documentary Short Subject

Winner Predictions

Death by Numbers (WL O)
I Am Ready, Warden (TL O)
Incident
Instruments of a Beating Heart (PP O)
The Only Girl in the Orchestra

Runner-Up Predictions

I Am Ready, Warden (WL O)
Incident (TL O)
The Only Girl in the Orchestra (PP O)

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Wesley Lovell: Without seeing these, I have no idea. I’m going with the only one of my five predictions that got nominated.
Pete Patrick: More guesswork.
Thomas La Tourrette: These are just guesses right now.

Best Animated Short Film

Winner Predictions

Beautiful Men (TL O)
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Magic Candies
Wander to Wonder (WL O) (PP O)
Yuck!

Runner-Up Predictions

Beautiful Men (WL O)
Wander to Wonder (TL O)
Yuck! (PP O)

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Wesley Lovell: Another category requiring me to see the contenders before settling but I once again go with the one of my predictions that made it through, though Wander to Wonder is the most nominated animated short film so far this year, so who knows?
Pete Patrick: Yet more guesswork.
Thomas La Tourrette: These are just guesses right now.

Best Live Action Short Film

Winner Predictions

A Lien
Anuja (WL O)
I’m Not a Robot (PP O)
The Last Ranger
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (TL O)

Runner-Up Predictions

A Lien (WL O)
Anuja (TL O)
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (PP O)

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Wesley Lovell: Between my two finalists, I’m going to stick with Anuja for the win and A Lien to place.
Pete Patrick: Still more guesswork.
Thomas La Tourrette: There are just guesses right now.