We kick things off today with our first winner predictions for the year.

Legend:

Winner Predictions:
Wesley Lovell Pete Patrick Thomas LaTourrette

Runner-Up Predictions:
Wesley Lovell Pete Patrick Thomas LaTourrette

Wesley Lovell: Our first predictions will be interesting.
Pete Patrick: There were no big surprises in the nominations other than the failure of Wicked: For Good’s failure to win a single nomination. My comments below are on each category except for Documentary Feature and the three Short Subjects, none of which I’ve seen.
Thomas La Tourette: Wow!

I expected Sinners to do well, and perhaps even get 15 nominations to become the most nominated film of all time. But I did not expect 16 nominations. That is impressive. It has also made the best picture race much more interesting. Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another had seemingly been anointed as the film of the year and was expected to cruise to victory in numerous categories including picture, director and adapted screenplay. Competing with a film that earned three more Oscar nominations than it may make some of those categories not such sure bets. I am wondering if Sinners might sneak in for best picture and thus allow the Academy to finally honor Anderson with an award for best director. One Battle is not his best film, but often awards are not won for the best work a person has done but as a cumulative lifetime award. So, One Battle may well prevail, but it will be intriguing to watch how it plays out.

As always there were surprises and snubs. The omission of Paul Mescal for his work as William Shakespeare in Hamnet is one of the biggest for me. Jessie Buckley has always been the prohibitive favorite to win as best actress for that film, but Mescal provided emotional support as her husband. Hamnet was also overlooked for cinematography and film editing noms. I am saddened but not as shocked that Ariana Grande was not nominated for Wicked: For Good. She proved herself a good actress and gave the movie its heart, but sequels did not do well this year. The original Wicked got 10 nods last year and then was completely shut out this year. Avatar: Fire and Ice only managed two noms whereas the original got nine and the first sequel got four, and those two films were both nominated for best picture. Chase Infiniti was expected to be nominated for One Battle, but her role was more of a supporting one, so that does not overly surprise me. Frankenstein got nine nominations but not one for its director. Sentimental Value scored four individual acting nominations but not one for casting, while three films with only one acting nom got a casting nod (Marty Supreme, Hamnet and The Secret Agent). It will take awhile for everyone to get an idea how casting will go since it is a new category. Diane Warren was of course nominated again for writing a song and will once again not win on her 17th try.

Bits of trivia for you. Timothée Chalamet is the youngest actor at 30 to have scored three nominations. Emma Stone is the youngest at 37 to have gotten seven nominations. The only younger person to have received seven nominations was Walt Disney. Autumn Durald Arkapaw is the first woman of color to be nominated for cinematography and could be the first woman to win the award. Non-English language films got 22 nominations which ties the record of the past two years for most noms. And this may be the first time that there have been acting nominations in all four categories for predominantly non-English speaking roles.

So, the time between now and March 15th will be interesting. Some categories seem pretty set as is often the case, but several are more in play than usual. The next seven weeks will be fun.

Best Picture

Winner Predictions

• Bugonia
• F1
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another (O) (O)
• The Secret Agent
• Sentimental Value
• Sinners (O)
• Train Dreams

Runner-Up Predictions

• Sinners (O) (O)

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Wesley Lovell: It’s not often that the old guard critics unifying doesn’t match up to Oscar but with the Moonlight precedent, anything is possible. I’m sticking with One Battle but if it loses at PGA and SAG, then tides will have turned.
Pete Patrick: Sinners may have the most nominations, but I think One Battle After Another still has the momentum.

Best Animated Feature

Winner Predictions

• Arco
• Elio
• KPop Demon Hunters (O) (O)
• Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (O)
• Zootopia 2

Runner-Up Predictions

• KPop Demon Hunters (O)
• Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (O)
• Zootopia 2 (O)

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Wesley Lovell: Remembering the win for Hayao Miyazaki over better movies, I’m going to predict Little Amélie for now.
Pete Patrick: KPop is a phenomenon that should beat the popular Zootopia sequel.

Best Directing

Winner Predictions

• Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another (O) (O) (O)
• Ryan Coogler – Sinners
• Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
• Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
• Chloë Zhao – Hamnet

Runner-Up Predictions

• Ryan Coogler – Sinners (O) (O) (O)

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Wesley Lovell: Even if Sinners takes Best Picture, I’d be surprised if Paul Thomas Anderson didn’t win a career accolade.
Pete Patrick: PTA finally wins one with Coogler his closest competition.

Best Actor

Winner Predictions

• Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme (O) (O) (O)
• Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
• Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
• Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
• Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent

Runner-Up Predictions

• Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another (O)
• Michael B. Jordan – Sinners (O)
• Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent (O)

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Wesley Lovell: Timothée Chalamet’s biggest competition is from Wagner Moura who surprised with a win at the Golden Globes.
Pete Patrick: I would give it to DiCaprio but the censensus seems to be that it’s Chalamet’s “turn”

Best Actress

Winner Predictions

• Jessie Buckley – Hamnet (O) (O) (O)
• Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
• Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue
• Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
• Emma Stone – Bugonia

Runner-Up Predictions

• Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (O) (O)
• Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue (O)

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Wesley Lovell: Jessie Buckley will be hard to beat.
Pete Patrick: Buckley probably wins in a walk but if there’s an upset Hudson will be the recipient.

Best Supporting Actor

Winner Predictions

• Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another (O)
• Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein (O)
• Delroy Lindo – Sinners
• Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
• Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value (O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another (O)
• Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value (O) (O)

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Wesley Lovell: This could go any number of ways. Skarsgård won at the Globes but Benicio Del Toro has the most precursors so far. Delroy Lindo could be boosted by appreciation of his film while Elordi has enough precursor love that he could spoil it all.
Pete Patrick: This is a close one with Elordi only slightly ahead of Skarsgard.

Best Supporting Actress

Winner Predictions

• Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleas – Sentimental Value
• Amy Madigan – Weapons (O) (O)
• Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
• Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another (O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleas – Sentimental Value (O)
• Amy Madigan – Weapons (O)
• Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another (O)

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Wesley Lovell: I don’t doubt Teyana Taylor gained some momentum after the Globe win but Amy Madigan is a longtime industry vet who might turn that into an asset and a win.
Pete Patrick: My crystal ball sees a pair in the supporting categories – either a pair of those in horror films or a pair of the oldest nominees in both categories – Madigan is the female part of the pair in both situations.

Best Original Screenplay

Winner Predictions

• Blue Moon
• It Was Just an Accident
• Marty Supreme
• Sentimental Value
• Sinners (O) (O) (O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• It Was Just an Accident (O)
• Sentimental Value (O) (O)

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Wesley Lovell: Sinners is unbeatable.
Pete Patrick: Probably an easy win for Sinners with Sentimental Value possibly pulling an upset.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Winner Predictions

• Bugonia
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• One Battle After Another (O) (O) (O)
• Train Dreams

Runner-Up Predictions

• Hamnet (O) (O)
• Train Dreams (O)

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Wesley Lovell: One Battle After Another is also unbeatable.
Pete Patrick: One Battle After Another should be a shoo-in with Train Dreams and Hamnet battling it out for second place.

Best Casting

Winner Predictions

• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• The Secret Agent
• Sinners (O) (O) (O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• One Battle After Another (O) (O) (O)

Wesley Lovell: Sinners seems like the kind of film to win this category but One Battle cannot be counted out.
Pete Patrick: Sinners, with its larger cast, has a slight edge over One Battle After Another for this new category.

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Best Original Song

Winner Predictions

• Dear Me – Diane Warren: Relentless
• Golden – KPop Demon Hunters (O) (O)
• I Lied to You – Sinners (O)
• Sweet Dreams of Joy – Viva Verdi!
• Train Dreams – Train Dreams

Runner-Up Predictions

• Golden – KPop Demon Hunters (O)
• I Lied to You – Sinners (O)
• Train Dreams – Train Dreams (O)

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Wesley Lovell: While “Golden” has been popular with precursors, “I Lied to You” has a stronger winner profile.
Pete Patrick: “Golden” should easily win this one, although I would love to see “Train Dreams” come out of nowhere to take it.

Best Original Score

Winner Predictions

• Bugonia
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners (O) (O) (O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• One Battle After Another (O) (O) (O)

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Wesley Lovell: Sinners should have no trouble beating One Battle.
Pete Patrick: This is another one where Sinners has the advantage over One Battle After Another/

Best Film Editing

Winner Predictions

• F1
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another (O) (O) (O)
• Sentimental Value
• Sinners

Runner-Up Predictions

• Sinners (O) (O) (O)

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Wesley Lovell: One Battle has a lot of narratives to keep track of and that’s something the Academy loves.
Pete Patrick: This should be One Battle After Another over Sinners.

Best Cinematography

Winner Predictions

• Frankenstein
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another (O)
• Sinners (O) (O)
• Train Dreams

Runner-Up Predictions

• Train Dreams (O) (O) (O)

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Wesley Lovell: Sinners is currently the film to beat.
Pete Patrick: One Battle After Another is the probable winner but Train Dreams would be a nice surprise.

Best Production Design

Winner Predictions

• Frankenstein (O) (O) (O)
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners

Runner-Up Predictions

• Hamnet (O)
• Sinners (O) (O)

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Wesley Lovell: Frankenstein will be the latest period film to claim this category and…
Pete Patrick: Frankenstein is my guess for this one over Hamnet and everything else.

Best Costume Design

Winner Predictions

• Avatar: Fire and Ash
• Frankenstein (O) (O) (O)
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• Sinners

Runner-Up Predictions

• Hamnet (O) (O)
• Sinners (O)

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Wesley Lovell: …this category.
Pete Patrick: Frankenstein over Hamnet again.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Winner Predictions

• Frankenstein (O) (O) (O)
• Kokuho
• Sinners
• The Smashing Machine
• The Ugly Stepsister

Runner-Up Predictions

• Kokuho (O)
• Sinners (O) (O)

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Wesley Lovell: This is tough. It’s hard to know what the Academy will go for. Frankenstein would seem like the film to beat but Sinners has a lot of effects that could pull it over the finish line.
Pete Patrick: Probably Frankenstein, but maybe another one for Sinners.

Best Sound

Winner Predictions

• F1 (O)
• Frankenstein
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners (O) (O)
• Sirât

Runner-Up Predictions

• F1 (O)
• One Battle After Another (O)
• Sinners (O)

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Wesley Lovell: F1 is the noisiest and for Academy voters, it’s a more likely winner. That Best Picture nomination suggests there’s at least some admiration for the film.
Pete Patrick: Sinners wins another one over One Battle After Another.

Best Visual Effects

Winner Predictions

• Avatar: Fire and Ash (O) (O) (O)
• F1
• Jurassic World Rebirth
• The Lost Bus
• Sinners

Runner-Up Predictions

• The Lost Bus (O) (O)
• Sinners (O)

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Wesley Lovell: Avatar is probably the safest bet of the year.
Pete Patrick: Probably Avatar: Fire and Ash.

Best International Feature

Winner Predictions

• It Was Just an Accident
• The Secret Agent
• Sentimental Value (O) (O) (O)
• Sirât
• The Voice of Hind Rajab

Runner-Up Predictions

• The Secret Agent (O) (O) (O)

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Wesley Lovell: With Sentimental Value being the most nominated foreign language film of the year, it should win this easily.
Pete Patrick: This one is between the two foreign language films that were also nominated for Best Picture with Sentimental Value having the edge.

Best Documentary Feature

Winner Predictions

• The Alabama Solution (O)
• Come See Me in the Good Light
• Cutting through Rocks
• Mr. Nobody and Putin
• The Perfect Neighbor (O) (O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• The Alabama Solution (O)
• Come See Me in the Good Light (O)
• The Perfect Neighbor (O)

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Wesley Lovell: The Perfect Neighbor is the most acclaimed but any one of these could probably win.

Best Documentary Short Subject

Winner Predictions

• All the Empty Rooms (O) (O)
• Armed with Only a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
• Children No More: Were and Are Gone (O)
• The Devil Is Busy
• Perfectly a Strangeness

Runner-Up Predictions

• Children No More: Were and Are Gone (O)
• The Devil Is Busy (O) (O)

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Wesley Lovell: This is just a guess for now.

Best Animated Short Film

Winner Predictions

• Butterfly (O)
• Forevergreen
• The Girl Who Cried Pearls (O) (O)
• Retirement Plan
• The Three Sisters

Runner-Up Predictions

• Butterfly (O) (O)
• The Three Sisters (O)

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Wesley Lovell: Another guess. Pending review of all of the contenders.

Best Live Action Short Film

Winner Predictions

• Butcher’s Stain
• A Friend of Dorothy (O)
• Jane Austen’s Period Drama (O)
• The Singers
• Two People Exchanging Saliva (O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• A Friend of Dorothy (O)
• Jane Austen’s Period Drama (O)
• Two People Exchanging Saliva (O)

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Wesley Lovell: Last guess of the day.