The first televised awards show of the season is the reformed Golden Globe Awards. While they are still ostensibly voted on by members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the HFPA no longer controls the awards, which are now a corporation of their own. How will that affect the outcomes? We won’t really know until they happen. Here are our predictions for how the awards will go this year. Let’s get some brief intros from our participants.

Wesley Lovell: The HFPA, and thus the Globes, used to be a group that could easily be bought with fancy prizes. Now that they’ve been reconstituted with more members (a more diverse slate supposedly), we’ll see if they retain some of their star-loving selves or, like the nominations themselves, they try to go for a more serious attitude.
Pete Patrick: Now that the Golden Globes have returned to respectability expect the winners to be a stronger barometer for the Oscars than ever.
Tripp Burton: No predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourette: The Golden Globes seemed to be fading into history a couple of years ago, but with a revamped and enlarged membership, it appears to have become an important precursor to the Oscars again this year. Whether it stays that way remains to be seen, but it looks to be a major Hollywood event again. Now to see if they make intelligent choices and can stay that way or if they become a bit of a laughingstock again.

GOLDEN GLOBE AWARDS

Best Picture, Drama

Anatomy of a Fall
Killers of the Flower Moon (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Maestro (RU:Wesley)
Oppenheimer (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Past Lives
The Zone of Interest

Wesley Lovell: This won’t be the category to observe that as their lead contender is both popular and likely to win. I give the lead to Oppenheimer, but if they really are their old selves, I could see Maestro pulling out a surprise victory.
Pete Patrick: Both Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon have lots of supporters, but Oppenheimer is more universally appreciated.
Tripp Burton: No predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourette: Like with the Oscars, this looks to be a race between Oppenheimer and Flower Moon, and I think Oppenheimer will easily win.

Best Picture, Comedy/Musical

Air
American Fiction
Barbie (Wesley, Thomas)
The Holdovers (Peter)
May December
Poor Things (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: This is another category where popularity and critical acclaim aren’t going to be decided as the most acclaimed films are also among the most popular. We’ll also see here whether their new popularity contest for blockbusters (a later category) will impact their voting. If they didn’t have that category, Barbie would probably win this in a walk. With that category, it’s possible they go for something less mainstream such as American Fiction or Poor Things. I still think Barbie can win because it would be a more high profile victory than that other category, but Poor Things seems the more popular choice here if they are going a different direction. That or American Fiction.
Pete Patrick: The Holdovers and Poor Things are both heavily supported by the critics, but The Holdovers has a stronger hold on the public (pun intended!).
Tripp Burton: No predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourette: The phenomenally successful Barbie should easily triumph over the competition.

Best Picture, Animated

The Boy and the Heron (Wesley, Peter, RU:Thomas)
Elemental
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Suzume
Wish

Wesley Lovell: This is another category where popularity and acclaim meet and the battle between The Boy and the Heron and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is expected with The Boy and the Heron appealing more to the international flavor of the organization. That said, Spider-Man could also burnish their anti-racist bona fides. Since the reason they went into the wilderness for a year was their lack of diversity, some voters could make a statement here with the sequel, though that might be a miserable way to view this since both films are acclaimed.
Pete Patrick: Spider-Man: Across the Universe is the more popular with the public, but here I think they’ll side with the critics and go with Mayazaki’s heralded return.
Tripp Burton: No predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourette: This is the first major awards where these two films are competing against each other. I imagine that the Spider-Man film will prevail even if it felt like an unfinished placeholder until its sequel comes out next year. It would be interesting if The Boy and the Heron did win.

Best Director

Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Greta Gerwig – Barbie (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things
Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon (RU:Peter)
Celine Song – Past Lives

Wesley Lovell: There are four major names on this list, at least to the American public. Cooper, Gerwig, Nolan, and Scorsese have their fans, though the latter is probably the less famous among American audiences. I see Nolan, who is the biggest name of the group, likely winning since his film is sure to pick up the top drama prize, though I could see them making a statement with a Gerwig win.
Pete Patrick: This should go easily to Nolan who has never won over three-time winner Scorsese.
Tripp Burton: No predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourette: Greta Gerwig’s Barbie was an unexpected triumph over the summer, but there seems little possibility that she can beat Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer.

Best Actor, Drama

Bradley Cooper – Maestro (Thomas)
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon
Colman Domingo – Rustin
Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers (Peter, RU:Wesley)
Barry Keoghan – Saltburn

Wesley Lovell: It’s very hard to see whether or not this group will revert with so many quality films and performances among the most audience-popular. This could be the category to manifest that. A win by Murphy, which I expect, would be a “popular” choice, though Cooper or DiCaprio would be more in line with the old HFPA style. That said, what could cement their international trend would be a victory by Scott. If Domingo wins, I’d say that could be their only obvious “diversity” pick. He has gotten acclaim, but no awards. Keoghan seems like an afterthought at this point.
Pete Patrick: Murphy is the presumptive winner here, but I anticipate an upset win for his fellow Irishman, Scott.
Tripp Burton: No predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourette: Bradley Cooper is the bigger Hollywood name and in the more recent movie, so he will prevail over the arguably more deserving Cillian Murphy.

Best Actor, Comedy/Musical

Nicolas Cage – Dream Scenario
Timothée Chalamet – Wonka
Matt Damon – Air
Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers (Peter, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Joaquin Phoenix – Beau Is Afraid
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: There are some solid choices here, but if we’re looking for an emergence of the old HFPA style, Chalamet could win. His performance isn’t one that’s gotten a lot of precursor consideration, but his film is incredibly popular right now. I don’t expect them to go that way, however, as Jeffrey Wright has a lot of potential to be an acclaimed choice, but would establish the new HFPA as a pro-diversity organization. If they went for simply acclaim, Giamatti would win. Since Giamatti isn’t assured an Oscar nomination at this point, I wouldn’t bet the farm on him winning.
Pete Patrick: Giamatti should win this one easily. Wright is the only other nominee who seemingly has a shot.
Tripp Burton: No predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourette: I don’t really think of The Holdovers as a comedy, but look for Paul Giamatti to easily beat the competition here.

Best Actress, Drama

Annette Bening – Nyad
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall (Peter, RU:Wesley)
Greta Lee – Past Lives
Carey Mulligan – Maestro (RU:Thomas)
Cailee Spaeny – Priscilla

Wesley Lovell: This will be the truest test of the day in whether the HFPA is going international, going populist, or going for acclaim/Oscar prognostication. The main contenders are Bening, Gladstone, Hüller, and Lee. The latter two would be winners in a genuinely changed organization with an international flavor. Bening would be a fitting choice for the HFPA of the 1980s and earlier while Gladstone would be the acclaim/Oscar prognostication pick. I’m leaning towards Gladstone right now, but I think Hüller might actually pull this one off.
Pete Patrick: Here I think international support for Hüller will prevail over Gladstone, but it will be close.
Tripp Burton: No predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourette: Lily Gladstone is the likely winner as her stiffest competition will be from comedy actresses.

Best Actress, Comedy/Musical

Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple
Jennifer Lawrence – No Hard Feelings
Natalie Portman – May December
Alma Pöysti – Fallen Leaves
Margot Robbie – Barbie (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Emma Stone – Poor Things (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: A surprisingly well stuffed category with a surprising international selection (Pöysti). Pöysti might win if they have shifted entirely into a genuinely international body, but for my money, the race is between Stone, who gave one of the most acclaimed performances of the year, and Robbie, who is in the most popular film of the year. While in another year, Robbie would win on sheer popularity votes, but a changed organization, or one that wants to be seen as changed, would go with Stone. It will be an interesting choice that we’ll all be watching as a sign of good/bad things to come.
Pete Patrick: Look for Emma Stone to take home her second Golden Globe in a close race with Margot Robbie.
Tripp Burton: No predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourette: Emma Stone has been getting the best reviews of her career from Poor Things, and that will probably translate into an award. I could imagine Margot Robbie pulling off an upset, but still think it will go to Stone.

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe – Poor Things
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Ryan Gosling – Barbie (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Charles Melton – May December
Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Back to Oppenheimer for this group. Sometimes they go whole hog on a film and sometimes they spread the love. We’ll find out in this category which direction they are going to lean. Downey Jr. has gotten plenty of acclaim, so the choice wouldn’t be questioned heavily. That said, a victory by Ryan Gosling, who’s getting acclaim of his own and is a contender for the Oscar alongside Downey Jr., could suggest that Barbie is doing better with the group than expected and might just take the most awards, including Director. I lean now towards Oppenheimer being the tally leader, but wouldn’t be shocked if it were Gosling.
Pete Patrick: Downey has two Globes, one for film and one for TV work, Ruffalo has one for TV work. I think Downey will pick up his third.
Tripp Burton: No predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourette: Robert Downey Jr. should easily win this and start him towards the march through the televised awards for the Oscar.

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer (RU:Thomas)
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple (RU:Wesley)
Jodie Foster – Nyad
Julianne Moore – May December
Rosamund Pike – Saltburn (RU:Peter)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Since two of the top performances here are both Black, some might disingenuously say this is the “diversity” category. I don’t believe that. Randolph has been dominating precursor season and I don’t see that changing. Brooks has also done modestly well. If they go for anyone else, then I would it could be a spite choice for sending HFPA to the wilderness for a year.
Pete Patrick: Randolph is such an overwhelming favorite here that you can throw in any of the other nominees you want for runner-up. I go with Pike.
Tripp Burton: No predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourette: Da’Vine Joy Randolph has won most of the supporting actress awards for The Holdovers so far this season, and I see no reason why she won’t win here as well.

Best Screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall (RU:Wesley)
Barbie (Thomas)
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer (Peter, RU:Thomas)
Past Lives (RU:Peter)
Poor Things (Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: Here’s where the chink in the Oppenheimer armor really lies. Although the film is quite popular and has earned a few awards, its screenplay isn’t always its strongest selling point. I’m going out on a limb and suggesting a genuine shake-up with Poor Things pulling off a surprise victory. I’ll probably be wrong, but I suspect that with the stack of choices here, Poor Things has a lot of upset potential while Anatomy of a Fall is my runner-up choice. This could prove whether they are going truly international. That said, I also wouldn’t be surprised at a Barbie or Oppenheimer victory.
Pete Patrick: I think Oppenheimer will prevail here, but Past Lives would be a nice surprise.
Tripp Burton: No predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourette: This is one place where Barbie and Oppenheimer compete head-to-head at the Golden Globes. They are totally different movies and I expect the splashier and more colorful Barbie to prevail, especially as there is no decision to be made over whether its screenplay is adapted or original.

Best Song

Addicted to Romance – She Came to Me
Dance the Night – Barbie
I’m Just Ken – Barbie (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Peaches – The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Road to Freedom – Rustin (Peter)
What Was I Made For? – Barbie (Wesley, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: One of the two likely Oscar nominees from Barbie are probable to win, though whether it’s the more modern sounding “What Was I Made For?” or the showstopper “I’m Just Ken” will be a question that lingers until the Oscars. I lean towards Billie Eilish.
Pete Patrick: I think they’ll go with Lenny Kravitz’ anthem from Rustin, but they could go for one of the Barbie songs, most likely I’m Just Ken.
Tripp Burton: No predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourette: “I’m Just Ken” may have been the more talked about song from Barbie, but I expect it to lose to the more pertinent “What Was I Made For?”

Best Original Score

The Boy and the Heron (RU:Wesley)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Peter, RU:Thomas)
Oppenheimer (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Zone of Interest

Wesley Lovell: The old HFPA used to make some outlandish choices in this category, so I wouldn’t take anything here with a definitive eye. Oppenheimer has been leading the awards all season and I expect it will continue, but if the org has gone international hardcore, the acclaimed, but clearly niche The Boy and the Heron will win.
Pete Patrick: A posthumous award for Robbie Robertson for Killers of the Flower Moon would be nice but Oppenheimer could easily win as well.
Tripp Burton: No predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourette: Oppenheimer had a rather overbearing score, though that makes it memorable to some. I think it will easily win here.

Best Non-English Language Film

Anatomy of a Fall (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Fallen Leaves
Io Capitano
Past Lives (Peter)
Society of the Snow
The Zone of Interest (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Anatomy of a Fall, Fallen Leaves, Past Lives, and The Zone of Interest are the only films with nominations elsewhere and therefore are probably the only ones that can win. Anatomy, Past Lives, and Zone are the only ones in the top categories. Anatomy of a Fall has been more popular all season than The Zone of Interest, but they are probably neck-and-neck for wins. That said, Anatomy of a Fall has more broad support and I expect it to win.
Pete Patrick: A tough one to call, but I think Past Lives will prevail here over both Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest, either of which could easily win as well.
Tripp Burton: No predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourette: Anatomy of a Fall was one of the more fascinating films of the year, in the English language or not, so I think it will win. Past Lives was quite enjoyable and would be a worthy winner too. I have also heard good things about The Zone of Interest, so this will be one of the most interesting categories as any of the three could win.

Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Barbie (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3
John Wick: Chapter 4
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer (RU:Wesley)
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (RU:Peter)
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour (RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Finally, the obnoxious category that even the Academy decided against. A hodge podge of titles that contains mostly acclaimed films and downright duds. Will they go with the more popular Barbie or its Barbenheimer consort Oppenheimer? I wouldn’t be surprised at either choice, but I lean towards Barbie since it tickets a lot of boxes.
Pete Patrick: They have to give Barbie something so this should be it. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is probably its closest rival.
Tripp Burton: No predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourette: Barbie was the major hit of the summer and one of the most talked about movies of the year, so it should easily win. Its closest competition probably comes from Taylor Swift’s phenomenally successful concert film, which is the only other film I could see winning here.