Will they affirm the current frontrunners or will they strike out on their own.

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS

Best Cast

American Fiction
Barbie (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
The Color Purple
Killers of the Flower Moon (RU:Peter)
Oppenheimer (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: There are two potential outcomes here. One, Oppenheimer, as the Best Picture frontrunner, runs away with the award. The other is if the more popular film, Barbie, wins the prize. There’s also a little-recognized statistic that when there is an upset, it’s usually the largest cast that wins. The Color Purple is that cast and I wouldn’t be too surprised if it won, but with American Fiction competing for a similar voting bloc, it’s unlikely.
Pete Patrick: Often confused with Best Picture, this will likely go to Oppenheimer with Killers of the Flower Moon its closest runner-up, but it could really go to any one of the nominated casts.
Thomas La Tourette: Oppenheimer boasts a large and star-studded cast and should win this. It also has the most acting noms from SAG, which also will help its cause. Barbie could throw a wrench into the works if the union feels that it was unfairly treated by the Academy and voters support it instead. Still, it feels like an easy win for Oppenheimer.

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Colman Domingo – Rustin
Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers (Wesley, Peter, RU:Thomas)
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer (Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

Wesley Lovell: Will the BAFTA winner (Cillian Murphy) convert to SAG winner? Or will Paul Giamatti continue his impressive streak of wins? This might determine the Oscar winner if no one else wins. Giamatti has been in everything and so has Murphy. This could go either way but the understated nature of Murphy’s performance versus the over-the-top elements of Giamatti’s suggests Giamatti may be the one to beat.
Pete Patrick: Giamatti’s schoolteacher is likely to prevail over Murphy’s physicist but either could win.
Thomas La Tourette: This is a difficult category to call with almost all of them delivering their best performances to date. Whoever wins here will definitely become the frontrunner for the Oscar. Cillian Murphy was the early frontrunner, if never a strong one, then it seemed like he might be eclipsed by Paul Giamatti. Bradley Cooper is a threat too. Colman Domingo’s fiery work as Bayard Rustin looks least likely to win. Jeffrey Wright is a possibility, though more likely overshadowed by Giamatti and Murphy. It will be close, but I will give the edge to Cillian Murphy to win.

Best Actress

Annette Bening – Nyad
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Carey Mulligan – Maestro
Margot Robbie – Barbie
Emma Stone – Poor Things (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: For most of the season, Lily Gladstone was the frontrunner, then Emma Stone started cleaning up with the precursors and the BAFTA win may have helped push her ahead. Stone is an actress that people have loved for awhile while Gladstone is a relative newcomer to many of them. While the narrative of her being the first Native American Best Actress winner may have taken hold a bit in the beginning, it’s faded since then, especially with her being shut out of a nomination at BAFTA (hence Stone’s high profile win uncontended).
Pete Patrick: Stone is on a roll, but previous front-runner Gladstone could still pull out a win here.
Thomas La Tourette: This is an even harder category to call. Emma Stone gave her best performance yet in Poor Things. The movie may put some people off, but no one can knock what she did in it. Lily Gladstone could become the first Native American to win as best actress, and that will be on the minds of some voters. She was very good in the film, but if she wins it may be more for history’s sake. There will be a push for Margot Robbie, so cruelly overlooked by the Academy. She was pitch perfect as Barbie, but does the guild want to cast their votes for someone who cannot win the Oscar? Annette Bening has to be considered too as she has been an able actress for decades and is on her fifth Oscar nomination without a win. They might look at a career award for her. The only one not in consideration is Carey Mulligan’s fierce performance in Maestro. She was superb but will not stand a chance. I will give the edge to Emma Stone, but will not be surprised if Lily Gladstone or even Margot Robbie wins.

Best Supporting Actor

Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
Willem Dafoe – Poor Things
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Ryan Gosling – Barbie (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Robert Downey Jr. probably has this one locked down. Industry veteran that everyone wants to see awarded. Ryan Gosling might be the runner-up here but I doubt he has much of a chance.
Pete Patrick: Downey almost certainly will continue his awards sweep here with Gosling his closest runner-up.
Thomas La Tourette: Robert Downey Jr. has been a working actor for 40 years and suddenly has a role that was a critical success and tested his range. He should easily win. Ryan Gosling’s Ken is the only other possibility to win, but I do not see that happening.

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
Penélope Cruz – Ferrari
Jodie Foster – Nyad (RU:Peter)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: That said, this category is where there are four also-rans and the winner, Da’Vine Joy Randolph. She’s barely lost this award this year, so I see no reason why she would lose it now.
Pete Patrick: Randolph will surely continue her domination of this category this year with Foster well behind as her closest runner-up.
Thomas La Tourette: Da’Vine Joy Randolph has dominated the precursors and it would be a shock if it went to anyone else. Emily Blunt does have one devastating scene in Oppenheimer, but I doubt it will be enough to topple Randolph.

Best Stunt Ensemble

Barbie (Peter)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (RU:Peter)
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Thomas)
John Wick: Chapter 4 (Wesley)
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: The John Wick series has been nothing if not a stunt extravaganza and that alone will likely mean a victory. Other than Mission: Impossible, none of the others likely stand a chance, though a case could be made for Indiana Jones.
Pete Patrick: Barbie should win this with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 poised to upset.
Thomas La Tourette: I am going with Indiana Jones just because it had the most memorable group stunts that I remember from these films. Mission: Impossible had some, but there were so many one on one fighting scenes that they may lose some traction.