Career awards have been known to happen at the Screen Actors Guild but for the most part, they can often indicate enthusiasm for a particular title. The winners here will either confirm longstanding predictions or upset the apple cart like BAFTA did in some regards.

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS

Legend:

Winner Predictions:
Wesley Lovell Pete Patrick Thomas LaTourrette

Runner-Up Predictions:
Wesley Lovell Pete Patrick Thomas LaTourrette

Overarching Introductions

Thomas La Tourrette: For a long time, so many of these awards seemed set, but there is now doubt as to whether things will go as planned. A win For Wicked for best ensemble would do little to change the best picture race, but if Timothée Chalamet or Mikey Madison win for lead acting than those races will have been thrown wide open. People will definitely be waiting to see how this plays out.

Best Cast

Anora WL PP TL
A Complete Unknown Nil
Conclave Nil
Emilia Pérez Nil
Wicked WL PP TL

Wesley Lovell: If Anora wins, Best Picture is guaranteed. However, considering the talent of the cast of Wicked, this might be the one top-line prize it wins over everyone else. Still, it’s hard to say for sure with this group but since they nominated Jonathan Bailey for Supporting Actor, there’s plenty of love for the entire cast to go around.
Pete Patrick: This award is ensemble not Best Film so it’s not really a predictor of Oscar’s Best Picture even though many prognosticators think so. Anora and Wicked have the most loved casts so one of the two will likely win.
Thomas La Tourrette: Wicked seems the likely choice with three nominated individual actors. It has been a popular film and is probably the most universally liked of the nominees. But if the guild wants to be pushing a possible best picture winner they could go for PGA winner Anora or BAFTA honoree Conclave. It will be interesting to see how it goes.

Best Actor

Adrien Brody – The Brutalist WL PP TL
Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown WL PP TL
Daniel Craig – Queer Nil
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing Nil
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave Nil

Wesley Lovell: None of the precursors predicted Adrien Brody when he first won an Oscar. Now, they are all making up for it by giving him the award they didn’t give him then, which only makes him look unbeatable. I’m really hoping for Timothée Chalamet to win this as Brody didn’t deserve his first Oscar and certainly doesn’t deserve two.
Pete Patrick: SAG likes to put a different spin on things than BAFTA, so this is where Chalamet has his best shot over Brody. 
Thomas La Tourrette: SAG could upend the race for best actor if they give the award to Timothée Chalamet. Adrien Brody has been winning a lot, among them Critics Choice, Golden Globes and BAFTA awards. But I wonder if the guild will surprise with the younger actor. It’s probably Brody, but I could see Chalamet pulling off an upset.

Best Actress

Pamela Anderson – The Last Showgirl Nil
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked Nil
Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez Nil
Mikey Madison – Anora WL PP TL
Demi Moore – The Substance WL PP TL

Wesley Lovell: Demi Moore has sentiment on her side but Mikey Madison won BAFTA. It will be a tight race with many female actors seeing in Moore their own struggles as young actors in Hollywood.
Pete Patrick: This is very close between Demi and Mikey – I suspect Demi, but either one is possible.
Thomas La Tourrette: This has been a tightening race between Demi Moore (CCA and Golden Globes) and Mikey Madison who just won the BAFTA. Moore is the likely choice but I could see them going for the younger Madison. Or they could surprise us all by going with Cynthia Erivo.

Best Supporting Actor

Jonathan Bailey – Wicked Nil
Yura Borisov – Anora Nil
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain WL PP TL
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown WL PP TL
Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice Nil

Wesley Lovell: With the years of work on Succession, Kieran Culkin has the name recognition to pull this off, though Edward Norton could give him a run for his money.
Pete Patrick: Culkin has this in the bag with Norton a distant second.
Thomas La Tourrette: Kieran Culkin has won twice as many precursors as all the other nominees combined, so he is a safe bet to win. Jeremy Strong was impressive as Roy Cohn, but I do not think he stands a chance. If anyone could upset Culkin it would be Edward Norton’s portrayal of Pete Seeger.

Best Supporting Actress

Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown Nil
Jamie Lee Curtis – The Last Showgirl Nil
Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson Nil
Ariana Grande – Wicked WL PP TL
Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez WL PP TL

Wesley Lovell: Zoe Saldaña has the wind at her back and I don’t see anyone but Ariana Grande halting that momentum. If Grande wins, then Wicked probably wins Best Cast too.
Pete Patrick: SAG is likely to follow popular opinion on this, giving Saldaña yet another win with Grande most likely to benefit from an upset.
Thomas La Tourrette: Even with all the backlash against Emilia Pérez, this feels like it will still go to Zoe Saldana for her impressive work in that film. Ariana Grande is the only one who could conceivably pull an upset, but that feels unlikely.

Best Stunt Ensemble

Deadpool & Wolverine Nil
Dune: Part Two PP TL
The Fall Guy WL PP TL
Gladiator II Nil
Wicked WL

Wesley Lovell: While at the Golden Globes, Wicked won an inferior award so they could give something else the comedy prize. This category isn’t quite like that but I wouldn’t put it past them to win when The Fall Guy would seem the more fitting winner.
Pete Patrick: Likely Dune: Part Two but any of the nominees could win here – let’s go with The Full Guy as a possible spoiler.
Thomas La Tourrette: The Fall Guy is the popular choice, though Dune: Part Two or Gladiator II could surprise with a win.