A group that hasn’t got the greatest reputation when it comes to predicting the Oscars but could matter this year with its later due date giving us more info than the Critics Choice or Golden Globe winners did.
SOCIETY OF COMPOSERS & LYRICISTS AWARDS
Legend:
Winner Predictions:
Wesley Lovell Pete Patrick Thomas LaTourrette
Runner-Up Predictions:
Wesley Lovell Pete Patrick Thomas LaTourrette
Best Original Score for a Studio Film
Conclave PP TL
Dune: Part Two WL PP
Emilia Pérez TL
Gladiator II Nil
Wicked Nil
The Wild Robot WL
Wesley Lovell: This is a tough category with four of the five Oscar nominees here. Of the two that weren’t, Gladiator II is the only one without much of a chance. Dune: Part Two might not have a chance except for that weird Oscar ruling that it was too derivative to be eligible. That alone might give this group reason to rebel and pick that film. That’s why I have it listed in first place as it would likely have won the Oscar were it not nominated. Of the remainder, any of them could possibly win. Picking a winner and a runner-up is tough because all of them have a chance. I’m going to guess that Kris Bowers and his popularity, might result in a surprise win for The Wild Robot.
Pete Patrick: Conclave has by far the most effective underscoring of any film this year but Dune: Part Two is highly popular so there is that. In no way, shape, or form should Wicked win – it isn’t an original score at all – its musical interludes between previously written material is an extension of already established themes.
Thomas La Tourette: With The Brutalist in the Independent film category, this is a much more wide open race. Conclave seems to be the likely winner, though either Emilia Pérez or The Wild Robot could pull an upset.
Best Original Score for an Independent Film
The Book of Jobs Nil
The Brutalist WL PP TL
Here After Nil
Heretic WL PP TL
Meet Me Next Christmas Nil
Winner Nil
Wesley Lovell: There’s only one Oscar nominee here, The Brutalist. Unlike in the other category, none of these other films seem to have much of a shot primarily because none were on the Oscar shortlist. However, having to pick a runner-up, I’m going with the better known film of the remaining five, Heretic.
Pete Patrick: The Brutalist should easily win this one over Heretic which is probably its closest competition.
Thomas La Tourette: The Brutalist has felt like the front runner for the Oscar for this category, so I imagine it will win here as well.
Best Original Song for a Dramatic or Documentary Visual Media Production
Beautiful That Way – The Last Showgirl WL TL
The Journey – The Six Triple Eight PP TL
Let’s Put the Christ Back in Christmas – The Boys (TV) Nil
Never Too Late – Elton John: Never Too Late WL PP
Old Tom Bombadil – The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power (TV) Nil
Winter Coat – Blitz Nil
Wesley Lovell: I’m tossing the four songs that weren’t Oscar-nominated. The remaining two are likely to be the only possible wins. “Never Too Late” has the benefit of being written by Elton John and “The Journey” is written by Diane Warren. Warren has been the bridesmaid for so long that she could certainly pull it out but the press about John losing his eyesight suggests he might not be able to write much longer and a career bow-out award wouldn’t be unexpected. Of course, a surprise could happen with “Winter Coat,” an Oscar shortlister, or “Beautiful That Way,” a surprising shorlist snubbee, as possibilities.
Pete Patrick: Elton John vs. Diane Warren – I wonder which way they will go?
Thomas La Tourette: Two of these are Oscar nominees, so I could see it going to one of them. I am not certain how this group feels about Diane Warren, but I could see her winning for “The Journey.” If not, then either “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl, which was a nice song that complemented the end of the movie, or “Winter Coat” from Blitz could win.
Best Original Song for a Comedy or Musical Visual Media Production
Beyond – Moana 2 Nil
Compress/Repress – Challengers WL PP TL
Forbidden Road – Better Man Nil
El Mal – Emilia Pérez WL PP TL
Mi Camino – Emilia Pérez Nil
Out of Oklahoma – Twisters Nil
Wesley Lovell: All of these songs were on the Academy’s shortlist but only three of them made the final cut. I gave the runner-up slot to the non-nominated “Compress/Repress” for its nomination snub, though “El Mal” and “Mi Camino” seem like strong contenders for the win with “Forbidden Road” a close fourth in the race.
Pete Patrick: I’m guessing “Compress/Repress” from Challengers over either of the songs from Emilia Pérez.
Thomas La Tourette: “El Mal” has lead the way in wins so far this season, so it would not be surprising if it won again here, unless the backlash against Emilia Pérez makes the voters look elsewhere. If that happens, than “Compress/Repress” feels like the one that would win.
David Raksin Award for Emerging Talent
Nil
Broken Bird PP
Dead Whisper Nil
Inside Out 2 WL TL
Invisible Nation Nil
Motorcyle Mary Nil
Nosferatu WL PP TL
Wesley Lovell: This will be tough. Two of these six were on the Academy’s shortlist. Inside Out 2 and Nosferatu will likely battle it out with Nosferatu coming out barely on top as the most honored of the pair.
Pete Patrick: Shouldn’t this be for the composer rather than the film? In either case, Nosferatu seems like a probable winner.
Thomas La Tourette: No commentary provided.
