With an uncharacteristically Oscar nominee-limited slate makes this particular set of awards even less representative than it typically is.

SPIRIT AWARDS

Best Feature

All of Us Strangers (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
American Fiction (Wesley)
May December
Passages
Past Lives (Peter, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
We Grown Now

Wesley Lovell: While it’s not 100% sacrosanct, an Oscar nomination is a pretty good indication of a film’s support and it’s likely victory at the Spirit Awards. American Fiction has several Oscar nominations in addition to Best Picture while Past Lives only has two Oscar nods, one of them being Best Picture.
Pete Patrick: Past Lives was the independent film that dominated the year and should win the top prize but look out for late year release All of Us Strangers for a possible upset.
Thomas La Tourette: Past Lives should win this one. There are some films like Anatomy of a Fall or The Holdovers that I wonder why they were not nominated. Their inclusion might have made for a more interesting race.

Best Director

Andrew Haigh – All of Us Strangers (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Todd Haynes – May December
William Oldroyd – Eileen
Ira Sachs – Passages
Celine Song – Past Lives (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: No Oscar nominees are here and all but one of these are nominated for Best Feature. Past Lives has the best chance at winning Best Feature of all of these, so I would expect Celine Song, an indie darling this season, to take the prize.
Pete Patrick: Past Lives‘ Celine Song should prevail here with All of Us Strangers‘ Andrew Haigh right behind her.
Thomas La Tourette: Like with Best Feature, Celine Song will win this for Past Lives, and deservedly so.

Best Lead Performance

Jessica Chastain – Memory
Greta Lee – Past Lives
Trace Lysette – Monica
Natalie Portman – May December
Judy Reyes – Birth/Rebirth
Franz Rogowski – Passages
Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Teyana Taylor – A Thousand and One
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Teo Yoo – Past Lives

Wesley Lovell: Jeffrey Wright is shockingly the only Oscar nominee of these ten. Greta Lee, Natalie Portman, and Andrew Scott were the only ones genuinely contending for Oscar nominations. This is for Wright to lose while Scott and Lee would be the best bets to carry over.
Pete Patrick: I hate this mishmash of male and female performances competing against one another especially when there can be only one winner. Last year a woman (Michelle Yeoh) won in lead and a man (Ke Huy Kwan) won in support. The situation should be reversed this year with Andrew Scott likely to win with Jeffrey Wright his closest runner-up.
Thomas La Tourette: Andrew Scott in All of Us Strangers gave the most haunting performance, but I think either Greta Lee of Jeffrey Wright will win.

Best Supporting Performance

Erika Alexander – American Fiction
Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction (RU:Wesley)
Noah Galvin – Theater Camp
Anne Hathaway – Eileen
Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry (RU:Thomas)
Marin Ireland – Eileen
Charles Melton – May December (RU:Peter)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Catalina Saavedra – Rotting in the Sun
Ben Whishaw – Passages

Wesley Lovell: Sterling K. Brown and Da’Vine Joy Randolph were the only Oscar nominees, so it’s between them. Randolph should be breathing easy since she’s a frontrunner for the Oscar and Brown is not. Glenn Howerton and Charles Melton are the only others who could conceivably win thanks to their frequent appearances in the precursors.
Pete Patrick: Da’Vine Joy Randolph should take this easily, but Charles Melton could surprise making it an all-male win in the acting categories this year.
Thomas La Tourette: I do not see anyone but Da’Vine Joy Randolph winning this one. Everyone else will have to be content with their nominations.

Best Screenplay

American Fiction (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Birth/Rebirth
Bottoms
The Holdovers (RU:Wesley)
Past Lives (Peter, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Three Oscar nominees, American Fiction, The Holdovers, and Past Lives. There’s a genuine case to be made for all three but I’m leaning towards American Fiction because I think it’s the frontrunner for two major awards, though Past Lives could win for its large nomination tally and The Holdovers could win but it seems a weak contender since Alexander Payne wasn’t the nominee.
Pete Patrick: Past Lives should win a third prize here, but either American Fiction or The Holdovers could upset.
Thomas La Tourette: Past Lives should notch another big win here.

Best Editing

How to Blow Up a Pipeline (Wesley, Thomas)
Rotting in the Sun
Theater Camp (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Upon Entry
We Grown Now (Peter, RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: None of these are Oscar nominees, so it’s a crap shoot which will win. Considering the content of them, How to Blow Up a Pipeline sounds like the easiest choice, though Best Feature nominee We Grown Now, though likely ineligible due to its 2024 release, is still a possible winner.
Pete Patrick: No commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourette: I know little about these films, so will go with the one I heard the most about, How to Blow Up a Pipeline.

Best Cinematography

All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt (Wesley, RU:Peter)
Chronicles of a Wandering Saint
The Holdovers (Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Monica (RU:Thomas)
We Grown Now (Peter)

Wesley Lovell: None of these were Oscar nominees for Cinematography, though The Holdovers was the only one of these nominated for any Oscars. That said, All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt got some recognition for its cinematography, so I believe it could win with The Holdovers possibly riding a prestige high to a win.
Pete Patrick: No commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourette: The Holdovers is the one I have heard most about, so I will go for it to win.

Best International Film

Anatomy of a Fall (Peter, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Godland
Mami Wata
Totem
The Zone of Interest (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Anatomy of a Fall might have had a good shot at winning this were it not for The Zone of Interest being ascendant right now. Totem could be a surprise winner, but one of the two Oscar Best Picture nominees should win.
Pete Patrick: No commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourette: Anatomy of a Fall was a strikingly original film and hopefully it will win this.

Best Documentary

Bye Bye Tiberias
Four Daughters (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (RU:Thomas)
Kokomo City (RU:Wesley)
The Mother of All Lies (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Several of these were on the shortlist but Four Daughters is the only one with an Oscar nominee. I suspect it probably has the best chance, though Kokomo City got more precursor attention overall.
Pete Patrick: No commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourette: The Oscar nominated Four Daughters should prevail against lesser known docs.

Best First Feature

All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Chronicles of a Wandering Saint
Earth Mama (Peter)
A Thousand and One (Wesley, Thomas)
Upon Entry

Wesley Lovell: That American Fiction wasn’t nominated is surprising. Of the rest, the most acclaimed seem to be All Dirt Roads and A Thousand and One. I expect one of them to win. A Thousand and One has a slight edge in my estimation but I wouldn’t promise a victory.
Pete Patrick: No commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourette: Again I have heard more about A Thousand and One, so I will pick it to win.

Best Breakthrough Performance

Marshawn Lynch – Bottoms (RU:Thomas)
Aitbon Nazaire – Mountains
Tia Nomore – Earth Mama (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Anaita Wali Zada – Fremont

Wesley Lovell: Dominic Sessa is the only one of these in a Best Feature nominee and with him being a major competitor for an Oscar nomination, I see him winning. After that, your guess is as good as mine.
Pete Patrick: No commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourette: Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers was probably achingly close to an Oscar nomination for his work in The Holdovers, so he deserves this award.

Best First Screenplay

Chronicles of a Wandering Saint
May December (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
The Starling Girl
Theater Camp (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Upon Entry

Wesley Lovell: May December was an Oscar nominee and none of the others came close, so I would put it at the top of a very short list.
Pete Patrick: No commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourette: May December is Oscar nominated, so the Academy felt it did something right. I think that will carry over to them winning here.

John Cassavetes Award

The Artifice Girl
Cadejo Blanco
Fremont (Wesley, RU:Peter)
Rotting in the Sun (Thomas)
The Unknown Country (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Fremont has more nominations elsewhere than the others, so I give it the lead. The Unknown Country is the only other one of these that has gotten any measure of precursor acclaim this year.
Pete Patrick: No commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourette: This is purely a guess.