The Spirit Awards are the penultimate multi-discipline group to announce awards and while they don’t usually forecast the Oscars (unless most of the Oscar nominees are listed), they can provide an interesting look at how indie-minded voters are feeling.
SPIRIT AWARDS
Legend:
Winner Predictions:
Wesley Lovell Pete Patrick Thomas LaTourrette
Runner-Up Predictions:
Wesley Lovell Pete Patrick Thomas LaTourrette
Overarching Commentary
Thomas La Tourrette: The Spirit Awards seem to become less relevant with every year. This year there is some overlap with the Oscars, and they may even award the same movie best picture, but with so little overlap their winners usually mean nothing. The combining of actors and actresses into leading and supporting performances may be the way of the future for other awards groups, but I find it disconcerting.
Best Feature
Anora WL PP TL
I Saw the TV Glow Nil
Nickel Boys PP TL
Sing Sing Nil
The Substance WL
Wesley Lovell: With three Oscar Best Picture nominees on the list, you have to expect one of them will win. That is usually the pattern with this organization. Between those three, I think Anora probably has the best chance followed by The Substance and then Nickel Boys.
Pete Patrick: Anora is the standout among the nominees, and a probable winner but Nickel Boys could surprise.
Thomas La Tourrette: I assume the critics darling Anora will win this.
Best Director
Ali Abbasi – The Apprentice Nil
Sean Baker – Anora WL PP TL
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist WL PP TL
Alonso Ruizpalacios – La Cocina Nil
Jane Schoenbrun – I Saw the TV Glow Nil
Wesley Lovell: Sean Baker and Brady Corbet are the only Oscar nominees. While Corbet might be able to win the Oscar, Baker is the indie darling who will very likely triumph even with the baity multi-year narrative surrounding The Brutalist.
Pete Patrick: Baker, the director of the presumed favorite should be an easy pick. Corbet would have an easier shot if his film were nominated for Best Feature.
Thomas La Tourrette: Sean Baker is suddenly on a roll, so it would not surprise me to see him win. I also found it strange that they could nominate The Brutalist for best director and nothing else.
Best Lead Performance
Amy Adams – Nightbitch Nil
Ryan Destiny – The Fire Inside Nil
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing WL TL
Keith Kupferer – Ghostlight Nil
Mikey Madison – Anora PP TL
Demi Moore – The Substance WL PP
Hunter Schafer – Cuckoo Nil
Justice Smith – I Saw the TV Glow Nil
June Squibb – Thelma Nil
Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice Nil
Wesley Lovell: Four Oscar nominees on the list with Demi Moore and Mikey Madison the only two likely to win. While I think Madison proves a serious threat, the narrative surrounding Moore is probably going to triumph.
Pete Patrick: These mixed genre categories are so ridiculous. Suspect they will give the lead to a woman and support to a man with Madison over Moore for this one.
Thomas La Tourrette: With the BAFTA win, Mikey Madison is suddenly hot and I could see her winning here, though both Colman Domingo and Demi Moore are strong competitors. It could easily go to any of those three.
Best Supporting Performance
Yura Borisov – Anora WL
Joan Chen – Dìdi Nil
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain WL PP TL
Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson TL
Carol Kane – Between the Temples Nil
Karren Karagulian – Anora Nil
Kani Kusruti – Girls Will Be Girls Nil
Brigette Lundy-Paine – I Saw the TV Glow Nil
Clarence “Divine Eye” Maclin – Sing Sing PP
Adam Pearson – A Different Man Nil
Wesley Lovell: Only two Oscar nominees in this batch, so you can bet the comeptition is between them. Since Kieran Culkin has been winning almost everything that isn’t nailed down, he should win out over Yura Borisov.
Pete Patrick: Culkin is the man, Maclin the second man.
Thomas La Tourrette: I am assuming that Kieran Culkin will continue his winning ways here.
Best Screenplay
A Different Man Nil
Heretic Nil
I Saw the TV Glow WL PP
My Old Ass TL
A Real Pain WL PP TL
Wesley Lovell: A Real Pain is the sole Oscar nominee in this batch and that’s surprising considering Anora‘s existence. Anyway, it should be an easy win for Jesse Eisenberg.
Pete Patrick: A Real Pain should be an easy winner with Anora not in competition here. I Saw the TV Glow could be a surprise.
Thomas La Tourrette: A Real Pain seems the obvious winner.
Best Editing
The Apprentice WL PP
Dìdi Nil
Jazzy Nil
Nightbitch TL
September 5. WL PP TL
Wesley Lovell: None of these are Oscar nominees, so it’s no surprise that it will be a difficult category to predict. That said, September 5 has the most acclaim in terms of its editing, so I suspect it will win.
Pete Patrick: Odd that Anora and The Brutalist are not nominated here – 5 September has the most editing and The Apprentice also has lots of editing so either could win.
Best Cinematography
La Cocina Nil
The Fire Inside TL
Inside the Yellow Cocoon Shell WL
Janet Planet PP
Nickel Boys WL PP TL
Wesley Lovell: Nickel Boys was unfairly ignored by the Academy but this should be a nice consolation prize.
Pete Patrick: Nickel Boys seems a safe bet with Janet Planet having an outside chance.
Thomas La Tourrette: The first-person cinematography may have been distracting, but it was also well done, so that should let Nickel Boys win this easily.
Best International Film
All We Imagine as Light WL PP TL
Black Dog Nil
Flow WL PP TL
Green Border Nil
Hard Truths Nil
Wesley Lovell: Flow is the only Oscar nominee in this bunch but it will be one of those rare categories I don’t think the Oscar nominee will win. That’s because of the presence of All We Imagine as Light, one of the year’s most recognized international entries.
Pete Patrick: An odd mix, but All We imagine as Light should take it unless they love Flow too much to resist awarding it here.
Thomas La Tourrette: The Indian film should win this, with Flow being the only other one with any name recognition that could pull an upset.
Best Documentary
Gaucho Gaucho Nil
Hummingbirds Nil
No Other Land WL PP TL
Patrice: The Movie Nil
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat WL PP TL
Wesley Lovell: No Other Land vs. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat is the only battle I can see with the two Oscar nominees duking it out.
Pete Patrick: No Other Land should take this easily. If not, then Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat should be the beneficiary of its loss.
Thomas La Tourrette: I think that the harrowing No Other Land will win.
Best First Feature
Dìdi WL TL
In the Summers Nil
Janet Planet WL PP TL
The Piano Lesson PP
Problemista Nil
Wesley Lovell: This is a tough competition. Dìdi was the best reviewed, so I have to think it will win but any of the others could as well.
Pete Patrick: Could be any of these, I’ll go with Janet Planet or The Piano Lesson.
Thomas La Tourrette: Dìdi seemed to be the best reviewed of these, and best received, so it should win. But if it goes to Janet Planet, that would not be too big of a surprise.
Best Breakthrough Performance
Isaac Krasner – Big Boys Nil
Katy O’Brian – Love Lies Bleeding WL PP TL
Mason Alexander Park – National Anthem Nil
René Pérez Joglar – In the Summers Nil
Maisy Stella – My Old Ass WL PP TL
Wesley Lovell: Katy O’Brian has several precursors for just this type of award, so I expect her to win over Maisy Stella, the second-most previously recognized.
Pete Patrick: Just guessing, I have aboslutely no clue on this one.
Thomas La Tourrette: Maisy Stella did get great reviews for My Old Ass, so I think she will win.
Best First Screenplay
Dìdi WL PP TL
The Feeling That the Time for Doing Something Has Passed Nil
Good One Nil
Janet Planet WL PP TL
Problemista Nil
Wesley Lovell: If they give first feature to Dìdi, I expect them to reverse the win and give it to Janet Planet. That said, any of them could probably win.
Pete Patrick: Should be either Janet Planet or Dìdi.
Thomas La Tourrette: I expect this to be between Dìdi andJanet Planet, and I will give the edge to Dìdi, but I have seen neither.
John Cassavetes Award
Nil
Big Boys Nil
Ghostlight WL PP TL
Girls Will Be Girls TL
Jazzy Nil
The People’s Joker WL PP
Wesley Lovell: Ghostlight and The People’s Joker have gotten plenty of love from critics and I believe one of the two could win, though I would count any of the others out quite yet.
Pete Patrick: I have no idea, just guessing on this one.
Thomas La Tourrette: I know nothing about these films.
