We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of August and see what films succeeded and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to October and see what has some potential.

Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts

August Retrospective
August and September, being the dead months for Oscar contenders saw only one film release with the potential to pick up nods but only in craft categories. Alien: Romulus got strong reviews and could contend for Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. That said, it has very stiff competition and it’s still a horror-sci-fi sequel, which won’t help it much.

October Forecast
October, on the other hand, has plenty of strong potential Oscar contenders on offer. Let’s hit the wide releases first and finish off with the limited.

The question of the season: can Joker: Folie á Deux‘s lightning strike twice? Joaquin Phoenix became the second person to play the Joker character to win an Oscar and the film got several other nominations when the first film was released. It opened at Venice, which should have been an auspicious start. Yet, the film managed to unimpress most critics and while it got some positive word, the reviews weren’t glowingly positive. I suspect a big box office could put it back in contention but you don’t build an Oscar race on this kind of opening.

Piece by Piece is Pharrell Williams’s life story told in Lego. An attempt to give kids a positive role model whom they can look to for inspiration is a savvy move and with the likely inclusion of some of his fun music, it’s certainly a contender in a couple of categories. Best Animated Feature seems a given but Original Song is also a strong possibility if there is one in the film, which I would be shocked if there weren’t one since he has two Oscar nominations already, though his second was as a producer on Hidden Figures. This one should be one of the year’s key animated contenders so keep an eye on it.

Before the first trailer and the mostly positive response after its release at Telluride, Saturday Night would be a return to form for Jason Reitman who hit it big with his debut feature and subsequently faded. Looking back at the madcap opening night of the long-running Saturday Night Live and all the drama and hilarity that occurred will surely be a popular film with audiences. It would be the crowd-pleaser contender of the season so far and that could get it in the door even if there are more high brow pictures in the works. Pencil this one in.

We Live in Time (which I have been putting an “a” in) premiered at Toronto and the reviews were about on par with Saturday Night‘s, so it has to be considered a minor contender. With two Oscar-nominated actors in the cast and feeling literary even if it isn’t, the film has some chance of scoring some acting nominations but will the film overcome the other arty pictures running for Best Picture too? Possibly.

Sometimes, the early bird gets the worm and Anora was a very early one, at least in terms of festival releases. Opening at Cannes, the film earned raves for Sean Baker who has been on the cusp of an Oscar nomination for a few years now looks like he might finally break through. The film won the Palme d’Or at Cannes and that’s the most prestigious film festival prize in existence. It’s not the usual fare that Academy voters pick up on but strong showings at the year-end critics awards should bolster its profile enough to get it nominated.

As a working actor, Jesse Eisenberg has had quite a few successes. As a director, not so much so. His second directorial effort has shown promise with a solid debut at Sundance early in the year. The emphasis is on the early year. Films often struggle to maneuver from those first festivals of the year all the way to the Oscar race. That said, the October release will keep it fresher in the Academy’s mind. Can it overcome a lot of other projects that fit in the same wheelhouse? A lot will depend on if critics keep it in the conversation.

A different type of limited contender is the small animated release Memoir of a Snail. From the Oscar-winning filmmaker the short film Harvey Krumpet, this coming of age tale uses Claymation to great effect in the trailer and that uniqueness will help the film stand out in a sea of computer animated features. That’s helped a number of films score Oscar nominations. While it’s not likely to beat out anything from Disney or DreamWorks, a nomination seems plausible.

The last of October’s potential Oscar nominees is Nickel Boys a coming of age drama that premiered at Telluride and has largely impressed critics. While there were some naysayers and some tried to stock the fire by saying it was divisive, reviews are predominantly positive. There seems to be a surfeit of films centered around the Black experience this year and along with The Piano Lesson, this seems to be the one that could go a lot farther, not because of the lack of name recognition but perhaps in spite of it.

Now let’s see what Pete and Thomas are thinking about.

Pete Patrick’s Thoughts

August Retrospective
The only film released in August likely to be remembered for long, let alone be in contention for an Oscar or two, is Deadpool & Wolverine which should factor into Visual Effects and Sound consideration.

October Forecast
The late Summer/ early Fall film festivals are underway making Oscar handicapping a little more real. Unfortunately, only two of the major festival films, Joker: Folie a Deux and Saturday Night are opening in October. Both should do well at the box office. Of the numerous non-awards contenders only the remake of Stephen King’s Salem’s Lot looks to me like it could light up the box office.

Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts

August Retrospective
August was not a good month for possible Oscar contenders.

Sugarcane looks to be a powerful documentary and could easily score a nomination and perhaps even a win.

Alien: Romulus could be a contender for visual effects and sound, though the latter films in the series have not scored many nominations.

The Count of Monte Cristo is the type of film that often gets nods for costumes and production design, and maybe even makeup & hairstyling. The first reviews are very good, so it might become France’s nominee for International Film.

Between the Temples could perhaps get Carol Kane a second Oscar nomination, but that seems improbable.

The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat was bandied about as a possible acting triumph last year, before its release was put off, so it still could pull off some nominations. But the reviews are mixed enough that I doubt it will get any.

Megalopolis must be considered a possibility because of the fondness for Francis Ford Coppola’s prior work, though critical reaction has been mixed. It won’t be up for best picture or director but might score some tech noms.

October Forecast
October is a much better month for films with a number of releases that are likely to score many nominations, including three that will likely be best picture nominees.

Joker: Folie a Deux is said to be better than the original and should score several nominations starting with best picture, actor and actress.

Saoirse Ronan is said to give an exceptional performance in The Outrun. The big question mark will be whether she is nominated for this or for Blitz, or perhaps both. Blitz will be the more prestigious picture, but she will have more screen time in this one. She could try as best actress in both, actress in this and supporting for Blitz or just try for one nomination from either, though different studios will be pushing for her in their films.

Saturday Night, about the creation of Saturday Night Live, should at least pick up a writing nomination.

Originally both Andrew Garfield and Florence Pugh were being talked up for their work in We Live in Time, but they rarely are mentioned now so it seems likely that they will be bypassed.

Anora has been a critical darling and should easily score nominations for picture, director, actress, and screenplay.

Memoir of a Snail looks likely to take one of the spots for animated feature.

Nickel Boys is poised to pick up nominations for picture, supporting actress, and screenplay. I am not sure if it will do better than that, but that would be a decent haul for an independent film.