We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of December and see what films succeeded and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to February and see what has some potential.

Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts

December Retrospective
Our final look at 2024 covers a number of Oscar contenders, some of them soared, many of them faltered. Here’s how they did.

The most successful of the three films that could be considered to have soared is surprisingly Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl. With 104 reviews, the film remains at 100% fresh over on Rotten Tomatoes and has a solid 83 over at MetaCritics. Even this year’s likely Best Picture nominees don’t have that solid a response. We don’t know how it will do at the box office since it’s released to Netflix but the critical response and the number of precursor nominations it’s received say it’s a sure nominee.

The next most successful film was The Brutalist, which landed numerous precursor awards and nominations and remains a frontrunner for double-digit nominations at the Oscars. Its Golden Globe wins are a positive sign in that regard.

A Complete Unknown wouldn’t be considered a huge success as its box office prospects weren’t good but critics have generally responded to it favorably and it’s been consistently present in the precursor citations this year. Can that continue? Possibly, the Oscar nominations are just around the corner and it’s in a strong position.

Of the four films, I’m including on the not soaring, but not failing list, two are major Best Actress contenders whose fortunes are shockingly up in the air. Babygirl stars Nicole Kidman and Hard Truths stars Marianne Jean-Baptiste. Jean-Baptiste has won numerous awards this year and Kidman has been a frequent player in the nominations lists. The problem for both films is that it’s not universal love. Kidman is missing key citations while Jean-Baptiste wasn’t even longlisted over at BAFTA, her home turf. Both of these are troubling signs and without their Best Actress nominations, both might end up with none altogether.

Nickel Boys and, to a lesser extent Nosferatu, have similar problems but in differing directions. Nickel Boys has done tremendously with critics but when the major groups announce nominations (such as the Golden Globes or BAFTA), the film is constantly left out. This is a bad sign for its continued support but this is the kind of film the Academy’s membership expansion will benefit (see Moonlight). Nosferatu has a similar problem in that it hasn’t gotten crucial citations but has done well down ballot with a lot of groups. It’s picked up steam with later-announcing groups but still remains unimpressive in its above-the-line potential. Below the line, it’s assured of several nominations. Above, possibly none.

The remaining six titles I highlighted back in November fall into two distinct categories. Films that have done well with critics but not with precursors and films that didn’t do well with critics or precursors.

The first group contains The Fire Inside and September 5. Both films got decent reviews but the precursors have avoided them. The Fire Inside was supposed to be released last year and the delay may suggest the film wouldn’t play well with Oscar voters and that appears to be the case as critics haven’t been lining up behind the film at all. September 5 was talked about in its post-festival honeymoon period as a major late-release Oscar contender. However, while critics praised it early, its trajectory has been anything other than satisfactory, having missed almost every important precursor and most of the others as well.

The other group are films that weren’t well reviewed and have rightfully been mostly ignored. Nightbitch, The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim, Mufasa: The Lion King, and The Room Next Door are those films. War of the Rohirrim wouldn’t exactly count as a critical disappointment unless you consider the potential success it could have had with audiences who were fans of the Peter Jackson films. Mufasa also wanted to please fans of the original. However, none of these films got anywhere near the level of acclaim they needed to get major citations and outside of a few small mentions, none of the four have played well enough to be considered Oscar contenders any longer.

February Forecast
Looking ahead to February, we have two films that could be box office successes but their Oscar fortunes are less certain. Paddington in Peru is the third mixed-media film in the series and although critics have heaped praise on these films, they have never materialized for Oscar consideration. The same will be true this year.

Captain America: Brave New World on the other hand has history on its side. One of the prior entries did pick up a Best Visual Effects nomination but with the fortunes of Disney’s MCU fading, the early-year release is sure to dampen any potential the film has with regard to the Oscars.

Paolo Sorrentino’s latest film, Parthenope, was briefly discussed in 2024 as an Oscar contender but the film got pushed into 2025. While Sorrentino doesn’t have the best Oscar track record, it’s enough of one to consider the film a minor early contender. However, waiting several months to release and getting pushed into 2025 is not a good sign for the film, so its chances are likely minimal.

And that’s all I have for February, let’s get the 411 from Pete and Thomas now.

Pete Patrick’s Thoughts

December Retrospective
Both A Complete Unknown and Nosferatu opened to good reviews and strong box-office.  Both should factor into this year’s Oscar nominations as should Nickel Boys and The Brutalist which have a lower profile with filmgoers.  This isn’t 1939/40 when Gone with the Wind could keep viewers in seats for almost four hours without complaint.  The Brutalist, which is nearly as long, is more conducive to streaming in which viewers can stop and restart the film at their own pace. 

February Forecast
February should break us out of the doldrums of a dull January release schedule.  Both Captain America – Brave New World and Paddington in Peru will be competing for top box-office dollars beginning on Valentine’s Day.  Other strong contenders for critical and box-office attention are Becoming Led Zeppelin, Love Hurts, The Legend of Ochi, The Monkey, and Last Breath.

Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts

December Retrospective
December proved not as big for releases as I expected. The Brutalist which will not open near me for over three more weeks looks poised to get as many as 10 nominations. Maria and A Complete Unknown will probably each get three, and Nosferatu may pick up some. But with commercial and somewhat critical failures of Nightbitch, Babygirl, The Lord of the Rings, and The Room Next Door, their chances of scoring noms has dwindled.

Maria should get Angelina Jolie another Oscar nomination and probably a couple more for costume design and cinematography.

Mufasa: The Lion King could pull off a nomination for visual effects, but chances of that feel pretty slim.

The Brutalist became a critical darling which should translate into multiple nominations, including picture, director, actor, supporting actor, supporting actress, original screenplay as well as several tech categories including cinematography, film editing, production design, and score. It should easily be one of the most nominated films of the year.

Babygirl could get Nicole Kidman another nomination for lead actress, but her chances seem to be lessening. Her one hope would be for a win at the Golden Globes (editor’s note: she didn’t) which would reignite her Oscar chances.

A Complete Unknown should easily score a nod for Timothée Chalamet. It will probably score the last spot for best picture too. Aside from that, it could pull off one for sound and perhaps one for supporting actor for Edward Norton.

Nosferatu could be nominated for up to four Oscars, makeup & hairstyling, cinematography, production design, and costume design.

February Forecast
Not much is coming out in February that might play into next year’s Oscars.

Like any Marvel movie, Captain America: Brace New World stands a chance of a visual effects or sound nomination, but those films have not been getting many nods lately.

The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie could be nominated for animated feature. Early reviews are good, but a February release may make it an afterthought in a year’s time.