We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of April and see what films succeeded and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to June and see what has some potential.
Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts
April Retrospective
Of the two films I highlighted in my April forecast, one was a flop, the other was an immense success.
First the flop. The Legend of Ochi looked to be an effects powerhouse but critics and audiences didn’t care for the film. While it’s still possible the Academy will shortlist it, I highly doubt they will. The Academy has been trending towards well reviewed films for their craft category selections and while Makeup and Visual Effects are two of the late-adherents to that notion, they’ve been doing it far more recently than they had been and for a film like this, that trend doesn’t help it.
As to the huge success? Sinners marked yet another box office smash for Ryan Coogler. He’s tackling genres and getting them Oscar-nominated where many of his contemporaries can’t manage it. With The Substance breaking some ground for horror representation at the Oscars (and Get Out before that), the Academy is far more likely to take this one seriously than it might have otherwise. With critics and audiences ecstatic about the film, it’s certainly going to be an Oscar player even with its early-year release.
June Forecast
With April behind us, let’s look to June. There are an array of films that could have some Oscar muscle. Three likely, one unlikely, and one dependent on a number of factors.
Let’s start with The Ritual, another attempt to build on The Exorcist‘s legacy. Al Pacino stars and this could be a return to form for him. He’s well regarded and he’s adopted a fairly solid accent. The problem is that this genre has been beaten to death and Pacino has been terrible at choosing film projects in recent years. This is the one of the five I’m highlighting with the weakest Oscar chances.
How to Train Your Dragon is a live-action remake of a popular DreamWorks animated feature. If we weren’t in a realm of endless Disney live-action remakes, the film might have better prospects. That said, its effects in the trailers have been good and if the film can do respectable business with audiences and critics, it might be able to make a play for a Best Visual Effects nomination if nothing else.
While I would say F1‘s chances are iffy in terms of its broad Oscar appeal, its chances at categories like Film Editing and Sound are unquestionably good. If the film becomes one of the top films of the summer and critics embrace it, the film could expand into a bigger contender in terms of its above-the-line representation.
Among the month’s potential Oscar nominees, these latter two are the most likely to score high profile nominations. Elio will have fewer opportunities being an animated feature but along with that specific category, Original Score and Sound are also strong possibilities. While Disney/Pixar have struggled to get sequels nominated, original films have a really good track record so unless this is as bad as The Good Dinosaur should have an easy time getting nominated for Best Animated Feature.
Finally, we have the winner of last year’s Toronto International Film Festival audience award. Often seen as a major springboard to the Best Picture race. The issue is that the film waited several months to release and avoided the race it should have been stronger in. A film like The Life of Chuck waiting to release until the summer might be seen as a sign towards its box office intentions but might prove dangerous for its Oscar chances. Still, the film has earned strong reviews, so it’s still a major contender.
Find out next what Pete and Thomas have to say.
Pete Patrick’s Thoughts
April Retrospective
Finally a film with strong Oscar possibilities – Ryan Coogler’s Sinners has it all – gangsters, vampires, and music dominate but other genres pop in and out of the narrative as well. No other film so far this year has intrigued critics and audiences as much. Possible Oscar nominations for Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, and numerous technical categories are being predicted.
June Forecast
Wes Anderson’s latest all-star cast film, The Phoenician Scheme and Danny Boyle’s 28 Year Later follow-up to his earlier hits seem to be generating the most critical interest, but box-office wise there are also the thriller, From the World of John Wick: Ballerina, the action comedy Bride Hard, the animated Elio, the live action remake of How to Train Your Dragon, and Al Pacino and Dan Stevens as conflicted priests bringing their star power to The Ritual, yet another film about exorcists.
It seems like there might be a little something for everyone in June.
Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts
April Retrospective
Sinners has done surprisingly well at the box office and is now looking like it could be an early release that nets a few Oscar nominations, perhaps several.
June Forecast
Pixar’s Elio is bound to earn a nomination for animated feature.
The live action version of How to Train Your Dragon could pull off a nomination for visual effects.
Car racing films often earn sound nominations, so F1 is probably in the mix for that.
