We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of February and see what films succeeded or faltered. Then we’ll look forward to April and see what has some potential.

Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts

February Retrospective
There wasn’t a lot on deck for February that could have become Oscar contenders and it ended up being more disappointing than even I expected. Horror had a great month with Heart Eyes and The Monkey getting strong receptions hot on the heels of January’s Companion but none of those are likely to cross over with Oscar voters. There was one title that I didn’t highlight back in January that might well stick around a few months into Oscar season: My Dead Friend Zoe. Before we get to that film, let’s look at the three I did reference.

Paddington in Peru got strong reviews but was a disappointment at the box office. With the first two films failing to capture Oscar’s attention, including Hugh Grant’s lauded, award-winning performance in the second film, there’s not much hope for the third even though Olivia Colman is said to give a hoot of a performance.

Next was Captain America: Brave New World. Audiences received it well but not in blockbuster numbers but critics were generally lukewarm on the film and with the MCU struggling with the box office and critics of late, it’s not likely the film will capitalize on its semi-popularity 9 or 10 months after.

Paolo Sorrentino’s Parthenope was initially thought to be a contender for the 2024 Oscars after the successes of some of his prior films. However, critics didn’t care for the film and have sent it to an early grave.

My Friend Zoe, on the other hand, has stellar reviews from both critics and audiences. While that could certainly give it a boost into the final months of the year, its paltry opening weekend with a mere $949er screen average suggests the film isn’t landing the way it needs to in order to make it all the way.

April Forecast
Now we come to the month of April. The potential box office contenders are as sparse as the potential Oscar competitors. Of the films scheduled now for April releases, only two have any measure of potential.

Let’s start with Ryan Coogler’s new film, Sinners. Starring Michael B. Jordan in dual roles, the film looks to be a haunting tale of Jim Crow-era gothic horror. It has an interesting premise and the first trailer is certainly fascinating but Coogler has struggled to get Academy recognition picking up only two nominations so far for the original song he co-wrote for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and as one of the producers of Best Picture nominee Judah and the Black Messiah. This type of movie may do well with critics but the Academy is much more reticent to recognize supernatural horror in any measure. Even with the success of The Substance, horror is still mostly anathema to Oscar voters, so unless this becomes both a critical and box office triumph, it isn’t likely to find its way into Oscar voting.

Finally, there’s the children’s film The Legend of Ochi, which looks to boast some strong visual effects. Critics won’t necessarily have to love the film for it to make it to the end of the year but audiences will have to turn up in droves. As it stands, the film is possibly going to be a shortlister for Best Visual Effects but don’t count on it branching out from the craft categories.

And with my thoughts laid out, let’s take a look at those of Pete and Thomas.

Pete Patrick’s Thoughts

February Retrospective
I do not recall a single film released in February that made any impression on me whatsoever.

April Forecast
April is not looking good with the most hyped release being the 25th anniversary reissue of Star Wars Episode III: The Revenge on the Sith at the end of the month.

Among the newer films being released are the comedies, A Minecraft Movie starring Jennifer Coolidge and Jason Momoa and Sacramento starring Michael Cera and the film’s writer-director Michael Angarano, both of which may do well at the box-office but neither of which seems like an Oscar-caliber film. From a historical perspective, perhaps the best of the lot will be William Tell set in 14th Century Austria and Switzerland with Ben Kingsley and Jonathan Pryce heading the cast.

Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts

February Retrospective
There was only one film that might play into next year’s Oscars, and that is doubtful.

Like any Marvel movie, Captain America: Brace New World stands a chance of a visual effects or sound nomination, but those films have not been getting many nods lately. The tepid reviews will probably keep it out of contention.

April Forecast
Nothing coming out in April looks Oscar worthy.