We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of January and see what films succeeded and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to March and see what has some potential.
Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts
January Retrospective
Although I did not forecast any potential Oscar nominees back in December, there are two that have at least the remotest possibility of attention from critics, which might push them into the Oscar conversation despite their early-year release.
Wolf Man was poorly reviewed by critics so don’t expect much from it but its makeup and visual effects are the kinds of things that at least merit attention from individuals in those disciplines. Whether or not they will want to remember this film 11 months later is a question that will likely be answered “no.”
While the Academy has shown they aren’t afraid of horror with the nominations this year for The Substance, I don’t expect it to become a regular course for them. Get Out also did well but that didn’t increase the genre’s visibility. The film I’m talking about here is Companion, which surprised many with its sterling reputation among critics. The issue is and always will be that it released in January and with everyone focused on the 97th Oscars and not the 98th, I expect it to be largely forgotten by year’s end.
March Forecast
While the first quarter of the year is seldom a proving ground for Oscar contenders, there are four films that at least have some semblance of a chance at recognition. And as Dune: Part Two can attest, a great film can endure the wasteland and come out with several Oscar nominations.
Let’s start with two wide releases. I’ll tackle Disney’s Snow White first because it’s the weakest of the two contenders. The studio has been running on fumes in its attempts to reinvigorate all of its animated classics with live-action renditions. Going back to its first full-length animated feature, Disney hopes to ignite excitement in fans of the original but the fist trailer has left some disappointed. There’s supposed to be a new song and there are plenty of sets and costumes to merit consideration in those categories. However, if the film is poorly received, that can be combined with its March release to doom its Oscar chances.
The other film has the cachet of being Oscar-winning director Bong Joon-ho’s follow up to his 2019 Best Picture winner Parasite. This returns to his favorite genre, science fiction and tells the story of a clone who accidentally survives only to find himself competing with a later clone to survive. It’s a compelling concept and it’s a comedy, which is a departure from his past dramatic efforts. The March release is concerning but if it’s as good as films like Snowpiercer and Parasite, the early release won’t matter.
Next up, we have two limited releases that have mediocre opportunities for Oscar consideration because smaller releases, even festival hits, don’t fare well having to wait so long for their buzz to collapse. Let’s start with one that not only has to worry about its March release buzz to receding, it already lost its buzz in the wake of its 2023 Toronto film festival debut. That alone should give one pause before recommending its Oscar consideration. That said, director Atom Egoyan is the kind of director people wait for even if it takes over a year to release his film. I don’t think it will be an Oscar contender but I like to highlight films of past Oscar nominees when possible (even if it’s been almost 30 years since they were last in contention.
Finally, we have the 2025 Sundance festival hit The Ballad of Wallis Island. Director James Griffiths has a name on television but this interpersonal drama also stars Oscar nominee Carey Mulligan. That alone should get people interested and early word is it’s great. The 95% Fresh rating (as of 2/9/25) at Rotten Tomatoes is a strong sign. It might be better served moving to a November release but March can still make it to the Oscars given the right buzz.
And that’s all I have to say this month. Please read on for more.
Pete Patrick’s Thoughts
January Retrospective
Nothing released in January set box offices on fire but 2024 holdovers Hard Truths and Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Foul finally getting U.S. releases made discerning moviegoers as well as critics, happy.
March Forecast
Looks like another slow month except perhaps for Bong Joon Ho’s Mickey 17 with Robert Pattinson and Steven Yeun early in the month and Disney’s live-action remake of Snow White with Rachel Zegler and Gal Gadot late in the month.
Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts
January Retrospective
There were no releases in January that will probably get Oscar nominations next year.
March Forecast
Not many releases look to have any chance of getting nominations.
Night of the Zoopacalypse might get a nomination for animated feature, but that would seem unlikely.
The same could be said for The Day the Earth Blew Up A Looney Tunes Movie, though it would seem to have a better chance of pulling of a nomination.
Disney’s Snow White could pull off noms for costume design and production design.
