We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of June and see what films succeeded and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to August and see what has some potential.
Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts
June Retrospective
Much of what I expected to happen for June came to pass but a few surprises came up with some of the films I highlighted.
The Ritual was an unmitigated flop. Not only did it bomb at the box office but critics gave it scathing reviews. It’s one of the lowest rated “mainstream” films with a major actor in it in years. Al Pacino is definitely not in the running for this.
How to Train Your Dragon did far better at the box office than many expected. Although Disney’s animation-to-live-action pipeline has had some major flops in recent years, other studios seem to do ok with their first foray into the medium. The film has done well at the box office and critics were generally happy with it. The film is unlikely to compete in many categories but Sound and Visual Effects are certainly distant possibilities.
F1: The Movie has also been successful with filmgoers and was even better rated by critics. The film still has a pop sensitivity that could keep it out of all but Best Film Editing and Best Sound but will the film succeed at the Oscars like Top Gun: Maverick? It’s certainly possible but right now, it doesn’t seem terribly likely. We’ll see how some of the year-end films perform with critics before deciding if it has a chance.
Elio got mostly good reviews but audiences didn’t turn out for it like they did the live-action remake of Lilo & Stitch. While that doesn’t prevent the film from earning a Best Animated Feature nomination, it will hinder its chances. It depends on which other animated films are in play at the end of the year if Elio can hold on.
The Life of Chuck started out auspiciously enough. It won the audience award at last year’s Toronto International Film Festival. That presages a strong play at the Oscars…at least when it’s released the same year. Instead, the studio thought it could get a summer hit out of it and held it back to June of this year. Not only was its 16-screen opening weekend a bit anemic for a film with this profile (only $14k per screen), it expanded to more than 1k theaters the following weekend and managed a paltry $2.6 million opening weekend ($2.1k per screen). That’s so bad it may well have doomed the film’s chances at the Oscars. It’s still at least conceivable the film will play well with Oscar voters but when they’ve largely forgotten about the film by the end of the year, it will be that much harder for it to rise from the dead. When you look at its reviews, while the Rotten Tomatoes numbers look terrific, it had an average 67 rating at MetaCritic which is ok but nowhere near the profile of a major Oscar player. The film could still compete but its chances are significantly diminished and will require a major, no-holds-barred Oscar campaign to get it back in the conversation.
August Forecast
August and September are two of the worst months for Oscar representation. August is the doldrums of summer where box office fodder goes to die and when Oscar contenders are waiting until after the Toronto/Venice/Telluride gambit at the end of the month. Then, when September rolls around, the Oscar bait that didn’t succeed at those festivals will try to recoup some money but will largely disappear. That means, we’ll have two months where our anticipation is limited to what’s showing at those festivals rather than at the box office.
Having said that, there are three films that have an outside chance at Oscar recognition. Let’s start with Sketch. Targeted towards young viewers, the film doesn’t have the best profile for major Oscar recognition but if the effects are as good as they look in the trailer, it could be a Best Visual Effects contender if nothing else.
After that, we have Darren Aronofsky’s latest feature, Caught Stealing. It has a strong cast but the August release date is worrisome. Aronofsky has a mediocre Oscar history with a few nominations across his decades of filmmaking but even more misses. This one looks like it might fall outside the Academy’s wheelhouse so its August berth at least makes sense. I wouldn’t count too much on this one being an Oscar player unless it’s a huge hit with critics.
Lastly, we have The Roses. Although the original film, War of the Roses, wasn’t an Oscar player, neither of its then-stars had multiple nominations to their credit. This will be an interesting test to see if remaking 80s comedy hits will have a positive effect. While I think its August release date is concerning, we’ll see how critics respond and if they are rapturous, then it’s got a chance. If not, well, it would take a miracle for it to make it to the Oscars.
Beyond those, we have one serious contender and that’s Spike Lee’s new joint Highest 2 Lowest. Denzel is in the lead and Lee has been picking up momentum with Oscar voters. This doesn’t quite seem like it would be in their wheelhouse but without many Black-helmed features on which to hang their hopes this year, it could certainly be a major contender, especially if critics love it.
And that’s everything set for release in August that could have even an outside chance at Oscar consideration. We’ll see what Pete and Thomas have to say and we’ll call it a day.
Pete Patrick’s Thoughts
June Retrospective
I think most, if not all, of the June releases have already been forgotten.
August Forecast
I am not seeing anything opening in August as a potential awards contender, but there are two films that may strike box-office gold, the remake of The Naked Gun and Freakier Friday, a sequel to the 2003 version of Freaky Friday which was a remake of the original 1976 version, both of which are coming out early in the month.
There are three films opening late in the month on 8/28 that also have strong box office potential for older filmgoers, The Thursday Murder Club, The Roses (a remake of 1989’s The War of the Roses) and the 50th anniversary re-release of Jaws.
Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts
June Retrospective
Pixar’s Elio seemed bound to earn a nomination for animated feature, though the poor public reception of the film may mean that it does not earn a guaranteed nomination.
The live action version of How to Train Your Dragon could pull off a nomination for visual effects.
Car racing films often earn sound nominations, so F1 is probably in the mix for that. It could also pick up cinematography and film editing nods.
August Forecast
The Venice and Telluride film festivals should give a clue about films that are releasing later in the year and might have Oscar chances. Otherwise, August does not hold much promise.
Highest 2 Lowest, Spike Lee’s latest film, could net nominations for picture, director, and screenplay, though it is on the bubble for any of those.
The Roses looks promising for an adapted screenplay nomination. Casting is a possibility for what looks like a fun picture, though comedies rarely get noms for acting, making any other nominations unlikely.
