We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of March and see what films succeeded and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to May and see what has some potential.

Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts

March Retrospective
What could have been an auspicious August ended up as a month with mostly disappointments.

Although Mickey 17 did adequately with critics, it was a box office bomb and the level of acclaim it received wasn’t up to the typical Bong joon-ho effort. That has meant it’s considered a modest failure. While films with this kind of reception can stay afloat in a mediocre year, it doesn’t look like it will stand up to the rigors of time.

An even bigger disappointment, if you ever thought it might have not been one, is Snow White. The critics largely dismissed it and audiences liked it but not well enough to turn it into a megahit. While it could still play for some craft categories, there will be better opportunities for Disney to claim those nominations later in the year.

Seven Veils spent far too long making it to the big screen. It originally released at the Toronto International Film Festival back in 2023. It didn’t manifest much interest then and even showed at the following year’s Berlin Film Festival. Yet, it remained out of competition for two years before finally releasing in the doldrums of March. The reviews were solid but not exceptional and although Atom Egoyan has had minor Oscar success in the past, he’s never been much more than a blip and this isn’t the film that will bring him back to the competition.

Finally, there’s the one film that could be claimed as an unqualified success. The Ballad of Wallis Island has an impressive score at Rotten Tomatoes although its MetaCritic number isn’t equally high. Still, that reception is the kind of thing that can buoy a film through the summer months and allow it to be somewhat remembered later in the year. Still, an October release would probably have been better.

May Forecast
One major filmmaker and two major franchise entries will likely mark all of interest in the month of May. There might be an indie that emerges but it doesn’t look promising…that is unless you consider my first forecast.

The Phoenician Scheme is from Wes Anderson and if there’s a filmmaker the Academy was slow to embrace but now warmly welcomes, it’s he. While his film is oddly reminiscent of the style of his Oscar-winning short film The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, dipping into that well a second time might be dangerous. That said, it doesn’t quite have the fluidity of motion his major Oscar nominee The Grand Budapest Hotel, it still feels quite stiff, much like his non-nominee Asteroid City. Anderson is a hit-or-miss filmmaker with the Academy so we’ll have to see how rapturous the reviews are before assessing the film’s chances. Craft categories is all I’m predicting for it at this time.

The first of the major franchise entries is Thunderbolts*, which seems to want to follow DC’s Suicide Squad motif of mediocre superhumans taking on a job that the A-listers aren’t around for. It has some appealing characters and that includes Oscar nominees Florence Pugh and Sebastian Stan. That doesn’t mean the film will be Oscar catnip. Far from it. This franchise has basically worn itself out and aside from the likes of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, there just isn’t enough gas left in the tank to get to the Oscars.

Finally, we have a franchise that has remained surprisingly efficient and exciting despite being almost three decades old. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning is the latest test for whether or not Tom Cruise can still pack people into the theater. Its predecessor took a slight post-pandemic hit but remained popular. This second part should maintain the series’ hold on audiences. The last entry scored two Oscar nominations and was the first entry in the series to do so. Perhaps the franchise’s prospects have changed but I suspect that this one might struggle more with a wider, more ambitious slate to contend against.

That’s everything from me this month. Let’s see what everyone else has to say.

Pete Patrick’s Thoughts

March Retrospective
Theatrical releases for the third month in a row were mostly losers with both critics and audiences, but there was hope in at least one film shown at SXSW Film and TV Festival in Austin, Texas – The Rivals of Amziah King.

The film is the big-screen debut of writer-director-producer Andrew Patterson, a thriller revolving around a Native American orphan, recently aged out of foster care, played by newcomer Angelina LookingGlass and her former foster father, Mathew McConaughey, as the title character, a banjo playing beekeeper. Kurt Russell plays McConaughey’s father.

The film received a standing ovation at the festival and received ecstatic reviews. The only problem is that it still doesn’t have a distributer, reportedly because the producers are asking too much money.

May Forecast
While box office may pick up toward the end of the month, there is nothing with ay critical heat to look forward to.  Critics’ eyes will be on the Cannes Film Festival.  Will this year forecast year-end awards as it did with Anora and Emilia Pérez or leave us still in the dark as to where the rest of the year is headed?  Stay tuned. 

Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts

March Retrospective
Little came out this month that seemed likely to get Oscar nominations.

Both Night of the Zoopacalypse and The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie might get nominations for animated feature. Neither seems that likely, but Looney Tunes stands the better chance. (Editor’s note: Looney Tunes was submitted last year, so it wouldn’t be eligible this year).

May Forecast
One big question mark will be Cannes Film Festival. For years it seemed to award obscure films that never played at the Oscars, then last year it awarded both Anora, which won five Oscars, all major ones, and Emilia Pérez, which took two including supporting actress. Will it become a harbinger for future Oscar success or was that just a blip. It will be interesting to see.

Wes Anderson can never be counted out, so The Phoenician Scheme could net nominations for supporting actor and original screenplay. It might also get nothing as he has not done as well lately with his films.

Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning could get nominations for sound or visual effects.