We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of May and see what films succeeded and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to July and see what has some potential.
Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts
May Retrospective
There were three films I highlighted back in April as being potential Oscar nominees. What’s most interesting is that of the three, they received critical responses in the opposite order that I originally suspected. We’ll start with the lowest.
For Wes Anderson, his quirky brand of filmmaking has its adherents but they aren’t legion. The Phoenician Scheme was largely well received by critics but not to the ecstatic extent Anderson’s big Oscar winner The Grand Budapest Hotel was. This performance was more in line with something like Asteroid City or The French Dispatch, films that were well regarded but which Oscar ignored. That’s likely going to be the case with this film, which is a bit surprising to say considering the two higher rated films. It may still score some below-the-line nominations but competition will be fierce and the film isn’t distinct enough from Anderson’s prior efforts to generate the level of buzz it might need to survive.
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning received the second best support from critics who were, as usual, quite impressed with the film. The film has been steadily chugging along at the box office but came in a distant second on opening weekend to Lilo & Stitch. That wasn’t a good sign. The film was never going to be a major Oscar contender but it could still be a tech one where Sound and Visual Effects are distinctly possible nominations.
The real surprise is that Marvel’s Thunderbolts* pulled off the better critical and audience response of these three films. Strong but not outstanding box office performance will keep it in the conversation but it isn’t likely to score any nominations in spite of its acclaim.
That covers May (not counting Cannes), so let’s look forward to July.
July Forecast
In the heat of the summer, audiences are typically looking for big spectacle adventures and there are four this July that seem like they could pique interest with regular audiences and Oscar voters alike.
First up is the latest reboot of Superman, this time helmed by James Gunn who has managed to get a few films nominated at the Oscars. That said, DC struggles with the Academy more so than Marvel and other than Visual Effects and Sound, I cannot imagine there is much chance for this film.
Jurassic World Rebirth is the latest Jurassic World film starring Oscar nominee Scarlett Johansson, Jonathan Bailey, and two-time Oscar winner Mahershala Ali. That’s a pretty solid cast and the film will likely be successful but not with Academy voters. None of the Jurassic World films have been major Oscar players and I don’t see that changing this go-round.
Next up is the latest attempt to turn the Smurfs into a box office franchise. This one doesn’t look terribly far removed from the last and although music superstar Rihanna is voicing Smurfette, there’s little in the trailer that suggests this will be a step up in quality from the prior outing. Further, the Academy’s Feature Animation voters often avoid adaptations of small screen programs (The Simpsons Movie is a prime example), so don’t expect much. There might be a new Rihanna song that could be popular on the airwaves, but whether it can show at the Oscars is anyone’s guess.
The last of the three blockbuster contenders also happens to be the most likely to do well at the Oscars. The Fantastic Four: First Steps is the second attempt to revive the first family of comics. This is the first to be helmed by Disney/Marvel so it has a decent shot of doing better than the prior film, though topping its two predecessors might be more difficult. That said, like Captain America: The First Avenger and Agent Carter, First Steps takes audiences back to the 1950s and that comes with snazzy period sets and costumes that might just be catnip to Oscar voters. It’s also a superhero team that could have Oscar voters paying attention. That said, Marvel has struggled with Oscar voters for some years with only a handful of films being able to capture their attention, so we’ll put this film down as a cautious contender.
Beyond those four, there are three films that will aim to be box office hits but won’t likely have the ability to become as huge as these other three.
Eddington features Fantastic Four star Pedro Pascal. The film’s premise is perhaps a bit too on-the-nose for our political times and might divide audiences just as well as it will likely divide critics. The film had some good initial buzz but has faded in the last couple of months. Unless critics are universally appreciative of the film, I don’t expect much from it in terms of the Oscars.
Caught Stealing has a better shot at pleasing both critics and audiences. Austin Butler has two prominent box office hits to build a reputation on but what may boost his chances is the presence of Darren Aronofsky. Aronofsky’s films have a history of being popular, even if divisive. They haven’t all been successes but this one could buck the tradition. At least with audiences. For Oscar voters, they aren’t likely to find a lot to get excited about here. There aren’t a lot of craft citations the film could get and it’s going to face off against better reviewed films releasing later in the year. That said, we can’t count it out quite yet.
Finally, we have a film that has a lot of potential in both directions. The Roses is a remake of The War of the Roses, which pitted Kathleen Turner against Michael Douglas in a Danny DeVito-directed film. That one was huge at the box office but ignored by the Academy. This time, it’s Jay Roach directing Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Colman to battle it out. With this profile, the film could end up being an Oscar contender where the first film wasn’t. That said, Douglas and Turner weren’t exactly unpopular at the original film’s 1989 release, so it’s possible the same lack of Academy appeal of the first film will manifest in this second. We’ll have to see how audiences and critics like the film before getting too hyped on it.
That takes care of everything I thought needed attention from July. We’ll keep going with Pete and Thomas and their thoughts.
Pete Patrick’s Thoughts
May Retrospective
Sorry, but there was nothing released in May that piqued my interest. Nor was there anything new at the Cannes Film Festival that screamed Oscar contender other than Sentimental Value which was already on my radar.
July Forecast
Two films that hold some promise for the second half of the year in terms of box office are James Gunn’s Superman and Jurassic World: Rebirth, both of which could generate the kind of interest summer films always have. As for awards contenders, I’m afraid we still have a while to go before we will see anything new.
Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts
May Retrospective
Still not a good month for possible Oscar releases.
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning is a possibility for visual effects or more likely sound.
The Phoenician Scheme, Wes Anderson’s latest stylized film, could net noms for set design or costume design, but his films seem to be getting scant attention lately, so it is more likely that it will get nothing.
The last couple of years, the Cannes film festival has presaged some films’ Oscar success, but that is looking less likely this year. It Was Just an Accident won the Palm d’Or, but it is unlikely to follow suit at the Oscars. It may well become the International Film winner, and perhaps a nominee for best picture, but it will probably not sweep like Anora did. Grand Prix winner Sentimental Value sounds like it will scoop up several nominations, though. The acting and screenplay winners do not look to repeat on the Oscar stage. Jennifer Lawrence did get strong reviews for Die, My Love so she could prove a nominee.
July Forecast
Except for three releases in franchises, there looks to be little coming in July that might get Oscar nominations. A reboot of Superman could pull off a nom for visual effects, though the DC Universe has not done as well with getting nominations. The same is possible with the Marvel Universe reboot of The Fantastic Four: First Steps. Marvel films have done slightly better getting noms, but not lately. And Jurassic World Rebirth, a stand-alone sequel in that series, could also get a visual effects nomination, though that series failed with their last two films. Any of these films could get a sound nomination too, but that seems even less likely.
