We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of October and see what films succeeded and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to December and see what has some potential.
Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts
October Retrospective
What a disappointing month October turned out to be with more than a dozen potential contenders each failing to perform in one way or another, we’re now left to wait for November and December releases to find the Oscar frontrunners. Nearly every film on the list did decently with critics, but I’ll try to break these down into groups rather than discussing each individually.
We’ll start with Tron: Ares, the mediocre third film in a series that once held promise with Oscar but might no more. It could still receive a Visual Effects nomination but it might just as easily be forgotten.
Among the high profile failures were Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, After the Hunt, Anemone, and Ballad of a Small Player. None were well supported by critics, receiving mixed reactions and all of them were duds at the box office, so their Oscar chances have dwindled to almost non-existent. Sure, Anemone and Springsteen could still see lead actor nominations but even those prospects have to be dimmed by their performances with critics and audiences.
Kiss of the Spider Woman, Pets on a Train, Roofman, and The Smashing Machine did much better with critics than the prior group but they sit on the cusp of acclaim with more positive than negative reviews but not enough glowing ones to make a difference. Kiss of the Spider Woman‘s technical crafts could still be nominated and The Smashing Machine remains a contender for stars Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt, but at this point, I wouldn’t expect to see any of them dominating at the Oscars.
Then we had the films that did well enough with critics to remain in contention but didn’t put the competition away. Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hedda, A House of Dynamite, and Nouvelle Vague could be in the conversation for year-end prizes as long as there aren’t enough major contenders released in this month or next. I doubt Hedda or A House of Dynamite breakthrough at all and Bugonia and Nouvelle Vague remain cusp candidates but Frankenstein probably performed well enough to be Netflix’s most hyped Oscar nominee, though it isn’t likely to be the ultimate winner.
Finally, we have three films that did quite well with critics and have already built some measure of buzz going into Oscar season. Blue Moon is Richard Linklater’s most likely to see nominations, though it remains a film that could easily be forgotten. It’s primary campaign will likely be around star Ethan Hawke but it’s a stacked competition and I doubt his performance resonates well enough to carry through.
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You is similar. With strong notices, the film is positioning Rose Byrne as a major player at the Oscars and for her, the competition is a bit weaker. It could also be the Little Indie That Could, performing far better than expected. It will need serious precursor support though.
Last but not least, the most acclaimed film released in October: It Was Just an Accident. Jafar Panahi’s latest feature has done very well with critics and since he’s never broken through in a major way, many of the failures of October may have given it a boost going into the Oscar nominations. Depending on how well it does with the precursors, it could bring Panahi some major nominations, though I remain dubious about his final chances.
December Forecast
It used to be that films releasing closer to Christmas had a better shot at Oscar nominations than any other and while that still remains true, I feel that it’s less so with the glut of streaming services. Houses like Netflix and Apple TV want to get their pictures on streaming before the end of the year so have to release them in theaters for their qualifying runs at least a month in advance. That might actually hurt their chances in some regards but it certainly explains their decision-making. Having said that, there are still plenty of contenders releasing in the last month of the year, so let’s dig into them.
Of the three wide releases that remain unseen, Ella McCay, Avatar: Fire and Ash, and The Housemaid would seem to be potential contenders depending on reception.
Avatar has the highest profile and the best pedigree and will likely be a technical marvel. Whether it can break into the Best Picture race or not is an open question.
Ella McCay is the latest dramedy from James L. Brooks. Starring Emma Mackey, Woody Harrelson, Kumail Nanjiani, Julie Kavner, and Jamie Lee Curtis, the film centers on the Mackey’s character, a politician who inherits a job she’s always wanted but whose family life threatens to crater her prospects, it would be surprising to see Brooks return to form so late in his career. It’s been almost three decades since his last major awards contender (As Good as It Gets). I’m doubtful it will be a success but if he can get critics in his corner, it could be a late-breaking phenom.
Another questionable contender is The Housemaid, not because it doesn’t have potential but because of its themes. Paul Feig’s latest is not a comedy like so many of his prior works and although it stars three young actors who are at or approaching their peak visibility (Sydney Sweeney, Amanda Seyfried, Brandon Sklenar), it will be a high profile project but it’s horror/thriller elements just don’t seem like the Academy’s cup of tea.
Before getting into the titles that seem most likely to go somewhere with Oscar, let’s highlight one indie film that might surprise.
A film we haven’t quite heard enough about, Rosemead stars Lucy Liu as a family matriarch struggling to keep her troubled son from doing something that will destroy him. It first released at Tribeca but didn’t generate much buzz and that could be its disqualifying factor but we’ll keep Lucy Liu penciled until its full release.
Two of the year’s final two animated features in contention this year, Scarlet and A Magnificent Life will round out the year. Scarlet is directed by Oscar nominee Mamoru Hosoda, who picked up his nomination for Mirai. Once a non-American director gets a single nomination, you have to consider every picture they release subsequently to be a contender and Scarlet seems to be reaching the U.S. at the right moment with so few major animated successes.
A Magnificent Life has a similar pedigree. Sylvain Chomet has four Oscar nominations to his credit. One for an animated short film, two for The Triplets of Belleville and one for The Illusionist, the latter two all getting Best Animated Feature nominations. Based on the life of Marcel Pagnol, the film promises to be the latest animated biopic to make a race for an Oscar nomination and with so few major films in the competition, you have to like its chances.
Rounding out my coverage of the month are three hotly-anticipated films that to varying degrees are major contenders.
The Testament of Ann Lee is the weakest of these. From director Mona Fastvold who was nominated with partner Brady Corbet for co-writing The Brutalist, we have a period drama about the founding leader of the Shaker Movement. Amanda Seyfried is having a banger December but this is the film that could bring her a nomination. It seems like the kind of film that will do well in the craft categories but might struggle in more prominent categories. If it can overcome the lack of buzz following Venice, it could be a contender. That said, it doesn’t look like a winner.
Is This Thing On? is Bradley Cooper’s latest attempt at winning an Oscar. He’s done quite well as a director, securing nominations for both of his directorial efforts to date (A Star Is Born and Maestro). While this isn’t likely to win him an Oscar and a Best Directing nomination seems unlikely, that calculus could change if the film is a major critical and precursor success.
Rounding out the month, Timothée Chalamet’s performance in Marty Supreme has already generated some buzz. Directed by Josh Safdie, Chalamet stars as a table tennis champion who fights for his success in Cold War New York. It’s one of the last films to get seen and while some are hotly anticipating the film, I remain unconvinced that it will be a major Oscar contender. Still, if the critics land on the highly positive side and precursor awards route to it in droves, then I could be convinced otherwise.
And that’s all my thoughts on the month of December. Let’s get Pete and Thomas in for theirs.
Pete Patrick’s Thoughts
October Retrospective
October was pretty much a disaster at the box-office.
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, The Smashing Machine, and Kiss of the Spider Woman were immediately dropped from most prognosticators’ Oscar predictions. House of Dynamite, Ballad of a Small Player, and After the Hunt, Anemone, and Hedda didn’t fare much better. Blue Moon, which had been written off earlier in the year suddenly became a more likely contender for Ethan Hawke for Best Actor with the everything else underperforming. Frankenstein, which had a very limited release prior to its November 7 Netflix streaming debut may be the only one left standing as a major Oscar contender.
December Forecast
Hope springs eternal with the upcoming releases of Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Wake Up Dead Man, and Avatar: Fire and Ash, all of which are expected to do well at the box office. Others that may do well with critics if not necessary the box office include Jay Kelly, The Secret Agent, and No Other Choice. The big question mark is probably Song Sung Blue, the Neil Diamond tribute musical with Kate Hudson and Hugh Jackman opening on Christmas Day at the same time as Marty Supreme.
Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts
October Retrospective
There are definitely a number of films coming out in October that could prove Oscar players. We are getting into the fall season when studios have held their contenders for late releases, so there are finally some films to look forward to. Mediocre to bad reviews did knock some of the films out of the picture, but a number should still get some nominations.
The Smashing Machine has Dwayne Johnson being seriously talked about as a possible Oscar nominee but that seems less probable. It might score a nom for Makeup & Hairstyling too.
Kiss of the Spider Woman might pull off nominations in the tech categories, but Jennifer Lopez will likely have to wait longer to finally get a nomination.
Tron: Ares is a possible nominee for visual effects, though its chances have dropped.
A House of Dynamite could bring Kathryn Bigelow nominations again as it could be up for Picture and possibly original screenplay. I do not expect it to get much else even if it pulls off those.
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You could pull off a nomination for Rose Byrne’s gutsy performance, but that is likely the only nomination it would get.
Frankenstein should make a big splash in all the tech categories as well as best picture, but the mixed reviews may keep it from doing much above the line. Jacob Elordi has gotten rave reviews as the monster but will probably not get a nomination.
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere looks to be this year’s musical biopic that does good. Nominations for picture, actor and supporting actor all seem pretty set. Sound and perhaps a couple other below the line noms could happen too.
Ever since Poor Things, Yorgos Lanthimos’ films are talked up as possible major contenders. Kinds of Kindness did not live up to the hype, but early reviews of Bugonia make it seem possible. Picture, actor and actress all are likely at this point.
There is a faint possibility that Hedda could nab a nomination for Tessa Thompson, but the strength of the category makes that seem unlikely.
Little Amelie or the Character of Rain is a possibility for animated feature. At this point I would say it is not likely to happen but it could.
December Forecast
After the big rush of November releases, there is not as much coming out in December that will likely pull off nominations.
Avatar: Fire and Ash should do well in the tech categories. There is a chance that it could pull off a picture nomination too.
Is This thing On? might get a screenplay nom, but that is doubtful as is anything else.
Father Mother Sister Brother is getting good reviews, but I am not certain it will pick up any nominations.
Marty Supreme will probably pick up nominations for picture, actor and original screenplay.
Song Sung Blue has been flying under the radar but there is a slight possibility that Kate Hudson could pull off a best actress nom,
The Testament of Ann Lee has excellent reviews and could pull off a nomination for Amanda Seyfried for best actress, but she is right on the bubble for that.
Scarlet is starting to look like it will pull off a nomination for animated feature.
