We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of XXX and see what films succeeded and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to XXXX and see what has some potential.
Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts
September Retrospective
September turned out to be a generally mediocre month for Oscar contenders where unlikely films made their debuts. Of the five that I highlighted back in August, only one is an unqualified success. The others performed from decently to awfully. We’ll tackle them in the order I referenced them in my earlier forecast post.
Doing decently at the box office and with critics, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale had the least to lose with failures at either since neither factor tends to figure in to nominees in the Production Design and Costume Design fields. That doesn’t mean the film is assured a nomination just that it wasn’t a disaster in terms of its salience in the race.
Disappointing both critics and audiences, Eleanor the Great was sure to be a contender for June Squibb’s performance if nothing else. While the film’s miserable showing won’t necessarily dampen her candidacy, it doesn’t bolster it either.
The festival circuit wasn’t terribly impressed with The History of Sound but its final reviews were largely positive, though on the middle-of-the-road kind of positive. The $20k per theater average wasn’t bad but this film will need a major push to become a major contender as it might have been considered prior to its opening. I don’t expect it will overcome most of the contenders so its chances are probably still on the low end.
A genuine flop with critics A Big Bold Beautiful Journey had a lot of potential for Oscar consideration based on its concept. However, the failure to live up to expectations has ruined its chances. While this was likely Margot Robbie’s only chance at Oscar consideration, Colin Farrell has a shot with Ballad of a Small Player. You can mark this one off of your list.
Likely to be one of the year’s most acclaimed films, One Battle After Another has an impressive 95 score at MetaCritic making it the best reviewed mainstream film of the year, no question. Audiences turned out for Leonardo DiCaprio’s new film, which justifies his hefty fee and it’s not terrible 50% second-weekend drop will certainly help its chances with Academy voters. This film may well have entered the pole position for Best Picture along with several other citations.
November Forecast
There are a ton of new releases in November that could have Oscar paying attention. We’ll start with three wide releases and then look at all the limited releases with minor chances and finally the one limited release that’s already proving to be a major player.
The least likely of the films on the wide release list to score Oscar nominations is The Running Man, the latest Stephen King adaptation. While King’s films have proven strong box office performers in recent history, they haven’t really shown up in the Oscar contention pages and based on the initial trailers, that’s not likely to favor The Running Man, which looks to be light sci-fi rather than serious, Oscar-winning sci-fi. That said, rapturous reviews could change its calculus.
The next most likely contender is Zootopia 2, Disney’s latest sequel to pend for a holiday release without any sense of its quality. Like so many others, it’s possible the film is a dud. However, since the original film won an undeserved Oscar for Best Animated Feature, then it has a chance. That said, it will depend on just how anemic the non-Disney/Pixar slate is that will determine whether Zootopia 2 can overcome.
Wicked: For Good follows its immensely successful predecessor into the Oscar race. Unless the film is an absolute dud, which seems unlikely, it’s sure to contend in several categories, including most of the ones its predecessor was nominated. Depending on how strong the reviews are will determine whether the film remains a top tier contender or shifts into craft-only mode.
While I said I would tackle the next few films as a group, I thought I’d break them down in terms of how much buzz they generated out of the festival circuit. This group of six films didn’t rack up much buzz at all in the wake of the Toronto/Telluride/Venice festivals.
Eternity is David Freyne’s seriocomedy about the afterlife where Elizabeth Olsen must choose between her first husband (Callum Turner) and her second (Miles Teller). Early reviews were solid but talk of its Oscar potential has been decided mute since opening at Toronto. While it’s also a drama, the comedy elements might hinder its chances with serious-minded Oscar voters. I think this is probably the next least likely to materialize into an Oscar nomination of any kind.
Nuremberg opened at Toronto but didn’t generate any buzz. That’s strange considering the salience of its premise. While the reviews are on par with Eternity‘s, I can’t see the film becoming as much of a cause-célèbre with Oscar voters. Of course, with the current political turmoil in the country, it could do surprisingly well.
Everyone is looking to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser to make a return to the Oscars but his type of comeback status tends not to materialize in future recognition. Rental Family hopes to upend that conventional wisdom and while it tells a somewhat inspiring story, it might bolster his chances but unless he scores a raft of critics’ awards nominations, I don’t see him earning Oscar recognition a second time.
The Brazilian drama The Secret Agent earned terrific reviews out of its festival run and as Brazil’s submission to the International Feature competition, it’s certainly a contender for a nomination. That said, the film’s chances outside that category are limited. Wagner Moura did receive some terrific notices but it will take several critics nominations for him to enter the Best Actor race.
Premiering at Sundance early this year, Train Dreams has yet to materialize a satisfactory campaign for the Oscars. Given the film’s general acclaim out of the festival circuit, you would imagine it would already be building some measure of buzz but it hasn’t. The film will have a lot of competition and although it might have made the final Best Picture slate back during the pandemic, these days, it’s got too much competition.
Noah Baumbach has struggled for years to be taken seriously by the Academy. Although Barbie was a big success for him, he wasn’t behind the camera. Jay Kelly is his latest directorial effort filled with a stellar cast of actors. The problem is that his meditation on Hollywood didn’t seem to impress out of Venice. The reviews were lukewarm and although stars George Clooney or Adam Sandler could still contend, the competition is fierce and I suspect they aren’t likely to make it through.
Christy received mixed reviews out of its Toronto International Film Festival debut but one aspect of the film that did get a lot of praise was star Sydney Sweeney’s performance. The controversy over her “Good Jeans” ad will likely have died down by Oscar time but with a raft of prominent lead performers gunning for the Best Actress nomination, the only way I think she pulls off a nod is in a controversial Andrea Riseborough way and after that furor just two years ago, I can’t imagine a whisper campaign will build the support it needs to secure her a nomination.
An actor who has a much better shot of securing a nomination the Sweeney is Jennifer Lawrence. Although Lawrence had a strong run of nominations from Winter’s Bone through through Joy, she’s been incommunicado since then. That’s almost a decade away from the Oscars. Die My Love did decently out of Cannes, picking up early buzz for Lawrence. However, the film has taken a very long time to reach the marketplace and its reviews don’t necessarily give it the boost it needs. I suspect Lawrence will be in the conversation but without major precursor support she won’t make it.
A film that got far more attention out of Cannes was Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value starring Renate Reinsve who seems to be on the verge of a major Oscar breakthrough with this being her most likely vehicle. With stellar reviews and the Grand Prix from Cannes, the film has been quietly bubbling under until it can release to the indie scene where it’s likely to do well. Depending on how critics and audiences support the film upon final release and how the precursors handle the film, it could be one of this year’s biggest nominees.
That said, only a couple of other films will be as big this year as Hamnet. Chloé Zhao’s second film following her Oscar-winning Nomadland got terrific reviews during its Telluride/Toronto run, going so far as to win the People’s Choice Award from the latter. That prize has typically lead to a strong Oscar campaign in recent years and barring last year’s unfortunately delayed Life of Chuck, it seems like that trend will continue to play out. The period drama is certain to rack up the nominations and could be one of two or three double-digit nominees. The film will have some tough competition for the top prize against One Battle After Another, but at this point it could still pull off the rare second win for a female director.
That’s everything I initially gravitated towards with the November releases so let’s see what everyone else thinks.
Pete Patrick’s Thoughts
September Retrospective
One Battle After Another is the only major box office hit and Oscar contender to emerge from the September releases. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale and Eleanor the Great may do better with audiences on home video, but neither is likely to receive major awards recognition.
November Forecast
Some big guns are opening in November starting with Guillermo del Toro’s gothic horror film, Frankenstein and Yorgos Lathimos’ sci-fi comedy, Bugonia on November 7.
Wicked: For Good comes out on November 14 and is sure to be a big hit by Thanksgiving.
The highly anticipated animated Zootopia 2 opens on November 21 and Edgar Wright’s remake of The Running Man arrives on November 26, the day before Thanksgiving.
Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts
September Retrospective
There was not a lot in September that might grab Oscar nominations.
Spinal Tap II: The End Continues could pull off a song nomination, though the first film did not succeed there.
Predators and Riefenstahl could get nominations for feature documentary, but one never knows what that branch of the Academy will deem worthy.
Like any Paul Thomas Anderson film, One Battle After Another is brought up as an Oscar possibility. Best actor, supporting actor, supporting actress, casting, picture, screenplay, and director are all mentioned as places it could score. It looks to be one of the most nominated films of the year and PTA will definitely be in the hunt for his first major wins. The trailer does not interest me but the reviews have been ecstatic and it will be a major player.
November Forecast
November is looking to be a jam-packed month of movie releases. A few do not seem to be living up to their hype, but a number like Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good, and Hamnet should rack up multiple nominations. Those three should be best picture nominees with multiple other nominations making them stiff competition against each other.
Christy could net Sydney Sweeney a nomination for her fierce portrayal, but I wonder if the brouhaha of her jeans ad might keep people from wanting to choose her.
Jennifer Lawrence was a darling at Cannes for Die My Love, but lately there has been little talk about her getting a nomination this year.
Nuremberg had sounded like Oscar bait, but the early reviews are mixed at best, so I doubt it will end up with anything.
Sentimental Value should be a major player with nominations for picture, director, actress, supporting actor, and maybe two for supporting actress. It has been riding high for months and should pull off a number of noms.
There is an outside possibility that Train Dreams could pull off a nomination for Joel Edgerton or for adapted screenplay, but either of those seems unlikely.
Jay Kelly had been primed to get George Clooney another nomination, but he has fallen way down the list. It does look likely that Adam Sandler may finally get a nom for supporting actor. And it will probably get one for original screenplay too. It might pull off one for picture as well, but those hopes are fading.
Richard Linklater has not been a player at the Oscars since Boyhood, but Nouvelle Vague is not looking likely to get him back there unless it proves a sleeper hit.
At one point Brendan Fraser sounded like he might get a second nomination for Rental Family, but those hopes are fading.
Wicked: For Good should probably score many nominations, picture, actress, and supporting actress as well as some tech ones as well, unless there is a feeling that it was honored enough last year.
Zootopia 2 should be guaranteed a nom for animated feature, the original having won in this category.
The Secret Agent could be up for International Film as well as less likely nom for Walter Moura as best actor who has gotten rave reviews.
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery seemed like it could get Glenn Close yet another Oscar nomination, but probably not a win, but she is little talked about now. It might still get one for adapted screenplay.
Hamnet should also be a major player with the Chloé Zhao film being up for picture, director, screenplay, actress, and supporting actor. Perhaps it will pick up a few tech ones as well. It is a picture that people are looking forward to.
