We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of February and see what films succeeded and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to April and see what has some potential.

Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts

February Retrospective
What a disappointing month February turned out to be…at least in terms of Oscar contenders. I highlighted three films that could have been Oscar contenders and all three underwhelmed.

Dracula was the one I expected the least out of. Luc Besson hasn’t made a critically acclaimed in film in a long time. While the film looks like a sumptuous feast for the eyes, critics didn’t care for the film and it faded at the box office as quickly as it arrived. It could be possible the production designers and costume designers give it some attention, that result doesn’t seem that likely.

GOAT didn’t get great reviews and the divide was clearest between MetaCritic and Rotten Tomatoes. The former was mixed on the film but RT critics were largely positive but for them, being better than average generally earns a positive mark. Still, without critical support, the one category this film could have gotten nominated in is likely out of reach. Even the well received Dog Man last year couldn’t survive several months to the Oscar contest.

Wuthering Heights had seriously divided critics. The majority of the female critics I read seemed to like it while the majority of the male critics did not. There were foes on each side so it’s not an exact female/male split but it was noticeable. Unlike the prior two films, Wuthering Heights has been doing decently at the box office. It’s up to $79 million and over $214 million worldwide. That’s a pretty good result. However, it’s unlikely the film will be a major Oscar player. You don’t mount an Oscar campaign off reviews like that. Unlike Dracula, I could see Wuthering picking up nominations in Best Production Design and Best Costume Design I am just not confident it will.

April Forecast
For April, we have four films, three of which were at one point in time either scheduled for a 2025 release and pushed back or were released in other territories in 2025 and are just now making it stateside. The remaining film has come out of nowhere for a tilting-at-windmills April release.

That release is Hamlet, which is a modern telling of the Shakespearean classic with Riz Ahmed in the lead. This story has earned quite a bit of attention from the Oscars in recent memory but this is dropping far too low profile to be thought of as a serious contender. Ahmed might make a go of a campaign but the film looks more likely something that gets lost before precursor season begins.

Mother Mary was initially rumored for a 2025 release but didn’t make it out of the cutting room in time. Instead, it’s hoping for a popular release to cinemas to bolster its box office, though it’s questionable whether the film has what it takes to earn Oscar’s attention. Anne Hathaway and Michaela Cole star and is directed by David Lowery, a bubbling under director that has yet to make it big at the Oscars. The first trailer is a bit bizarre and while a wave of strong notices from critics could bolster its chances, the focus on costume design in the premise will at least make it a Costume Designers Guild nominee and might eventually become an Oscar nominee.

Michael is the latest attempt to create a blockbuster biopic with a central performance hoping for Oscar glory. Bohemian Rhapsody set the stage but subsequent efforts involving Elton John and Bruce Springsteen have utterly failed to build Oscar momentum. Producers aren’t likely to search for Oscars with this film as it’s releasing into an early spring window and they want it to be a huge international box office success. That might boost it towards Oscar at the end of the year but reviews will have to be ecstatic for that to occur.

Lastly, we have a 2025 release in the UK, and winner of two BAFTA awards, I Swear. The film about Tourrette’s Syndrome earned the film awards for Best Actor and Best Casting throwing both awards into confusion for this year’s Oscars. Can it have the same success with Academy voters? It’s unclear. The film clearly resonated with the British Academy but the controversy over the subject of the film hurling racist epithets at Black presenters will likely sink its prospects. The April release won’t help either. Right now, I’d wager on it being forgotten but if the Best Actor race doesn’t solidify towards the end of the year, Robert Aramayo might just enter the conversation even if the film does not.

And that’s my look at February and April, no onto my compatriots.

Pete Patrick’s Thoughts

February Retrospective
Only Emerald Fennell’s controversial version of Wuthering Heights with Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi is likely to be remembered at year-end and that may be for more Razzie nominations than Oscar nods.

April Forecast
This is looking a little brighter than the first three months of the year have been.

Universal’s The Super Mario Galaxy Movie releasing in time for Easter, could be the year’s first major animated hit and a possible awards contender at year’s end.

Surprise BAFTA winner for Best Actor Robert Aramayo, I Swear makes its U.S. debut.

The strongest Oscar contender is apt to be Antione Fuqua’s Michael with Jaafar Jackson as his famous uncle, king of pop Michael Jackson. Miles Teller and Colman Domingo co-star.

Other films that may pique interest include David Lowery’s Mother Mary starring Anne Hathaway as a faded pop star making a comeback, Lee Cronin’s The Mummy the latest take on the horror classic from the 1930s. and the thriller Apex starring Charlize Theron and Taron Egerton.

And of course, there’s always the hope that something surprising will pop up out of nowhere.