We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of January and see what films succeeded and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to March and see what has some potential.

Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts

January Retrospective
A surprising number of films in January came out to strong critical reviews and could stick around for a few months, though I doubt either will end up in Oscar’s crosshairs. 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple is the latest acclaimed feature in Danny Boyle’s series of post-apocalyptic zombie films. Although the critics have always been a fan, this “spinoff” of last year’s 28 Years Later came out too quickly and certain has the potential to be a train wreck. Yet, it still ended up with strong reviews. If 28 Years Later couldn’t pick up Oscar nominations, this one probably can’t either.

The other is Send Help from Sam Raimi who returns to his gory roots with a film that had critics cheering. It’s a female-empowerment flick in survivalist form and while that could be appealing to some Oscar voters, it’s release in January is a strike against it. Rarely do prominent films remain so for 11 months and while it could ultimately receive the Sinners treatment, I doubt it has the legs to accomplish that.

March Forecast
March releases have not always been favored by Oscar voters as even acclaimed films cool their jets long enough to be ignored but that’s not necessarily true for these three titles.

The latest Pixar film, Hoppers, promises to appeal to children quite well but even when Pixar’s at its most kiddified, it still has contention possibilities. After Elio was a box office flop and didn’t fare well with critics, it remained a contender and even secured 11 nominations from the Annie Awards. That should give Hoppers the profile to remain in the conversation well into December. That said, if the critics hate it, that might not remain the case.

The Bride! is Maggie Gyllenhaal’s modernist take on The Bride of Frankenstein, setting it in 1930s Chicago. The March release is mystifying, especially if the film is any good, but blockbuster berths are limited in the summer, so that could be why it’s showing up this early. That said, it had a little buzz last year as a possible one-two punch contender with Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein but it was delayed, which doesn’t suggest the film has what it takes but buoyant critical support could help it stay afloat through the end of the year and even if it doesn’t, some craft citations (cinematography, production design, costume design, makeup) could still be possible.

Another not-ready-for-summer player, Project Hail Mary is the latest film from the author of the box office hit The Martian. This one stars Oscar nominee and modest box office draw Ryan Gosling, which should help give it box office legs. The March release might be hedging its bets but if it’s as popular with critics as The Martian was, it could make a play for a Best Picture berth. It’s even directed by animation Oscar winners Phil Lord and Christopher Miller. With such pedigree, it has to at least be considered. We’ll see how the critics feel.

And that’s my take for this update. Let’s take a look at those from Pete and Thomas.

Pete Patrick’s Thoughts

January Retrospective
There were no films opening in January worth remembering, but several late December Oscar contenders including Marty Supreme, Song Sung Blue, and Hamnet continued to break out, some doing better than others.

March Forecast
Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Bride! retelling of the Bride of Frankenstein updated to 1930s Chicago could be hit or miss. As a hit it could enhance Jessie Buckley’s prestige on the brink of this year’s Oscars. As a miss it could dampen her chances.

For some reason, the rest of March’s major releases are either science fiction or horror films as well, some comedic in their approach but all within those two genres.

Project Hail Mary stars Ryan Gosling as a teacher on a solo space journey.

Ready or Not 2: Here I Come features Shawn Hatosy and Elijah Wood in a horror comedy sequel.

They Will Kill You is an action horror comedy starring Heather Graham and Patricia Arquette.

Death of a Unicorn is a horror fantasy comedy starring Paul Rudd, Jenny Ortega, and Will Poulter.

The Woman in the Yard is a psychological horror film starring Danielle Deadwyler.

Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts

January Retrospective
Nothing released in January looks likely to net an Oscar nomination next year. Some films like Arco were nominated for this year’s Oscars, but they don’t count for this.

March Forecast
March does not have a lot of releases coming out that could be Oscar possibilities. Hoppers has the best chance of scoring a nod going by Pixar’s record, but a couple other films might sneak in too.

Considering that The Martian ended up with seven Oscar nominations, Project Hail Mary, which comes from the same author, has to be considered a contender, at least at this point.

Pixar can never be counted out when it comes to nominations for animated feature, though Pixar’s Hoppers does not look to be one of their better films.

The Pout-Pout Fish is a slight possibility for animated feature.

The Bride! could be a nominee for makeup and hairstyling, but a March release does not bode well for it.