Every month, we’ll take a look at the films that have shown the right kind of potential to eventually become Oscar nominees. On the last Monday of the month, we’ll look at what films in the next month will be playing for Oscar’s attention. On the first Monday of every month, we’ll look at how the prior month’s Oscar players succeed or failed and why. During Oscar season, starting in November, this will become a weekly feature where we look back at the prior week and ahead at the coming weeks.
Please also note that due to some site issues over the last month, this post is going live much later than anticipated. This may result in some commentary feeling a shade out of date.
Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts
After looking at the first quarter of the year and what was thought to be in contention, we’ll look solely at the month of April and its potential contenders.
Trying to take a similar tack as to the first of our new posts, let’s look at smaller films that either had the reviews or the prestige to enter the Oscar competition. There were two documentaries that seemed well received, The Fabric of the Human Body, 32 Sounds, and Wild Life, the latter of which was less warmly received. Then there were the well received indies like Showing Up, Joyland, R.M.N., The Eight Mountains, and Enys Men. These films all have potential, but might struggle to hang onto buzz for another six months. What’s most interesting about this batch is that all but Showing Up premiered at Cannes in 2022 while Showing Up played this year’s Cannes.
There were some less well received contenders such as Blind Willow, Sleeping Woman, Of an Age, and Chevalier. They had some solid reviews, but not spectacular ones. While Blind Willow might make the Animated Feature eligibility list, it’s doubtful it can make it through to the final slate. The same is true of the production design and costume design of Chevalier. Of an Age falters as a result of its lack of defining characteristics that won’t make it stand out against anything previously mentioned.
Next, we have two films that had high potential, but have struggled with the critics. River seems to have gotten almost no attention so far this year and with the previous three documentaries all getting better reviews, it seems unlikely this one will do very well. Then there’s Beau Is Afraid, which is Ari Aster’s latest film and while some praised its brazen and bizarre nature, the overall reception to the film from critics as lukewarm. Joaquin Phoenix could still be in contention for his performance, but he has other better options releasing later in the year.
We’ll close out our look at April with four films whose claim to Oscar contention varies. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret is one of the best reviewed wide release films of the year and while it didn’t burn up the box office like some expected, those kinds of reviews might bolster it into the end of the year. It’s doubtful that a film targeted at little girls and young women will be able to overcome stereotype and earn top level Oscar citations, but it might just be the film to break the mold. While there weren’t a lot of expectations for Margaret, there were a lot for Air. Ben Affleck’s first directorial effort in seven years turned out to be a positive turn upwards in terms of box office popularity and critical interest. The film got strong reviews and that could bolster its Oscar potential, but it’s got a long time to hang on to that buzz before critics start citing the best of the year.
Next up was another blockbuster, the biggest hit so far this year. The Super Mario Bros. Movie tapped into a zeitgeist that catapulted the film into the box office stratosphere. Audiences loved it. The fly in the ointment is that critics didn’t. The film performed dismally with critics and that won’t bolster its chance to overcome bias from the Animation branch at the Academy. If they wouldn’t recognize the critically acclaimed TV-to-screen adaptation of The Simpsons Movie or the toy-to-screen adaptation of The Lego Movie, they certainly aren’t going to choose now to recognize the video game-to-screen adaptation that is The Super Mario Bros., especially without the reviews to back it up.
Finally, we’ll close out our look at April with a film that none of us really expected to be on this list. Guy Ritchie is the kind of director whose films have trended towards the bombastic and excessive. While he’s managed a few Oscar nominations for his films, his past output is more in the lane of Michael Bay than Steven Spielberg. That is until The Covenant. Ritchie’s latest film was surprisingly well received (though its 63 at MetaCritic is a far cry from its 82% at Rotten Tomatoes). Still, there was just enough buzz about Ritchie finally maturing that he makes this list. The film isn’t likely to overcome many contenders this year and it might ultimately be limited to a Sound nomination, but it showed that Ritchie’s potential is there, just not as fully realized as someone like James Cameron.
Peter J. Patrick’s Thoughts
You called the Jan/Feb/March recap this Oscar Preview: The Contenders: The Winners from January, February, and March so following the same format:
Winners from April
Only Ben Affleck’s Air seemed to grab the critics’ attention as far as Oscar caliber films go. Depending on how tough the competition turns out to be, this could make the cut for Best Picture and Best Supporting Actress for Viola Davis as Michael Joran’s mother.
Contenders in May
Nothing looks to me like a contender in the major categories, but Disney’s live-action remake of The Little Mermaid could potentially grab a nod or two in the technical categories.
Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts
April did not have much that looked like it had Oscar potential, with one major exception.
Air definitely has the look and feel of an Oscar contender. A feel-good story, good actors and strong direction. If the Academy still remembers it by 2024, it could be a major contender across several categories. Ben Affleck has already directed a best picture winner, and this time he may even get a directing nomination to go with the probable best picture nom.
The Super Mario Bros. Movie could pull off a nomination for animated feature. The audiences liked it, but the critics were not so thrilled. I am inclined to think that the critics are more correct when it comes to receiving a nomination. As more critics review it, it seems increasingly unlikely to pull it off.
Suzume and Blind Willow, Sleeping Woman are possibilities for animated feature. Suzume boasts wild imagery and Blind Willow probably has the deeper storyline, but they are trying for that fifth slot which can go to a foreign language film, often a Japanese one. There might be room for one of them, but it will depend on what releases there are later in the year.
Chevalier might pull off nominations for costume and production design, but the film seems to have not had much impact and voters may be hard pressed to remember it by Oscar season.
Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret has been a critical hit but not exactly a box office smash. It might pull off an adapted screenplay nomination, but that is all I can see it getting.
Air is the only film that looks to certifiably be an Oscar contender, and it could rack up nominations for picture, director, screenplay and perhaps a couple acting ones as well. The animated films do not seem as likely to hold up, but it could happen. May is coming with the summer blockbusters, so there will at least be visual effects and sound contenders, even if there might be dearth of best picture nominees for a while.
