We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of April and see what films succeeded and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to June and see what has some potential.

Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts

April Retrospective
We’ll start off this week with the weakest entries and work our way to the stronger ones.

Starting at the bottom brings us The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare had an abysmal opening and after four weeks hasn’t even crept past $20 million at the box office. It was decently reviewed and audiences who saw it seemed to like it but you can’t come back from such a paltry box office tally and score Oscar nominations, especially a film that was never a great Oscar contender to begin with.

What Film Independent was thinking nominating a film that hadn’t released yet for its year-end awards, we don’t know but it probably didn’t do We Grown Now any favors. The film opened so much later than the Spirit nominations and while the reviews were decent, the film had a front-loaded opening and then crashed and burned. Suffice it to say, the early recognition may have hurt it more than it helped.

When Food, Inc. came out 15 years ago, no one would have thought a sequel would be produced but here we are in 2024 and Food, Inc. 2 released in theaters. While it did well for a documentary, it’s box office was somewhat weak compared to other contenders. The reviews were also good but not exceptional. With all of that working against it and a long way to go to the Oscars, you can probably eliminate this one from your predictions.

Civil War marks the latest film from Alex Garland about a near-future where a new Civil War has brewed pitting California and Texas and several others against the U.S. government. Garland had a strong opening with Ex Machina but his films have since been avoided by the Academy. It has done decently well at the box office and the reviews are good so it’s possible the film could buck the trend but for such an early opening for a film that will have far better competition later in the year, I suspect it probably won’t make it any further.

Housekeeping for Beginners got excellent reviews and while the opening numbers weren’t great, it managed to build its buzz into its second and third weekends. While that won’t be enough to put it into the Oscar competition this year, the fact that it was submitted but not nominated last year for Best International Feature gives the film hope…at least if it can turn its acclaim into year-end awards.

The biggest success of April was Challengers. Not because the box office was terrific, it really wasn’t. Its solid opening has weakened over time. What bolsters its chances is the stellar reviews the film received. Luca Guadagnino seems to be on a roll lately and this could be his latest Oscar nominee. He has another film due out later this year that will take some of the impact of this film away but Zendaya might well be cruising to a nomination even if the film is ignored.

June Forecast
With the April releases out of the way, let’s take a look at the June ones and it’s a very promising batch of contenders.

Starting things off is Inside Out 2, the latest sequel from Pixar. After a string of weak entries, they are hoping to rebuild their brand with one of the bigger late successes. The film will need to do outstanding reviews to overcome the perception that Disney/Pixar just keeps teeing up sequels because they are bereft of original ideas. Which is disappointing since it’s been their original entries that have been disappointing. It should still be a major Oscar contender even if it doesn’t do well with critics but a win would be seriously hampered by it.

The Bikeriders is one of two 2023 festival contenders that got pushed back into 2024. Was that because the studios thought they were too weak to compete in the 2023 calendar year or did they think this year would be easier? The June release suggests they aren’t as confident in its Oscar chances as those who originally ranked it as such last year. It will need excellent reviews to come close to an Oscar berth.

One of the big question marks of the year is Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1, Kevin Costner’s first directorial effort in 11 years and his third overall. Part of a four-part miniseries of films, the question is why it wasn’t released on a television network where it might have continued the era of Peak Television. Instead, it risks a poor showing at the box office. The first film, at over three hours, isn’t likely to bring a lot of western fans to the theater but it hopes the popularity of Yellowstone (a western TV miniseries he recently starred in) can translate to the big screen. Perhaps but in a single movie, maybe. As a series of four films spread over two years, maybe not. That said, success at the box office would only mean one element of the film’s needs for Oscar dominance were met. The other is critics’ reviews. If they aren’t outstanding, the film isn’t likely to have a chance. The only other question will be which of the two parts will get the attention? I suspect the first part.

The other 2023 festival release coming out in June is Hit Man, a comedy from Richard Linklater about a man who pretends to be a hit man for hire until he unwittingly steps into a real assassination plot. Star Glen Powell will be hot this summer with two releases, this being the least likely to be a success at the box office. It’s rare a movie like this does well at the box office but it if it does, it will bolster its Oscar chances. The good reviews should already help but the 2023-to-2024 delay may have hurt the film a little bit.

Finally, we have Best Directing nominee Yorgos Lanthimos along with Best Actress winner Emma Stone in his new comedy Kinds of Kindness. The film is a bit more in the bizarre realm than some of his prior films, but after his successes with The Favourite and Poor Things, his films always have to be considered contenders. This is coming out a bit too quickly after Poor Things, so it might not be the high quality effort his fans have come to expect. That said, it’s showing at Cannes, so we should know soon how good the film is and if it has great reviews, mark it down. If they are lackluster, count it out.

Pete Patrick’s Thoughts

April Retrospective
The only April releases that are likely to be remembered by year-end awards time are the critically divided Civil War and the surprise hit Challengers.

June Forecast
The box office will likely be kind to the sequels A Quiet Place: Day One, Inside Out 2, and Bad Boys 4 and the horror fantasy film, The Watchers. Another one to watch out for is Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 which is premiering at Cannes this month.

Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts

April Retrospective
None of the films released in April look likely to receive Oscar nominations.

June Forecast
Inside Out 2 is a sequel to the Oscar-winning Inside Out, so it could well get a nomination for animated feature.

A Quiet Place: Day One is a possibility for a sound nomination like the original.

The Bikeriders had sounded like it could pull off some nominations when it was due for a late 2023 release, will see if that still happens with a June one.

Banel & Adama is getting rave reviews, so if Senegal puts it forward as their nominee for international film, it could be a possibility.

The early reviews of Tuesday make it sound like a screenplay or lead actress nomination are possibilities, but an early June release means it will likely be forgotten by the time nominations come around.

Fancy Dance has good reviews for Oscar nominee Lily Gladstone, so perhaps she could get a second nomination for this.

Thelma has great reviews for its star, 94-year-old June Squibb, but it does not seem like the type of film to pull off a nomination for her.

Horizon: An American Saga sounds like the type of film that in the past might pull off nominations, but I am not certain that it still could.

Firebrand is the kind of film that could pull off makeup, costume, and production design nominations, but a June release casts doubt on that happening.

Green Border could pull off nominations for cinematography and international film.

Kinds of Kindness has to be ruled a contender as it is from Yorgos Lanthimos and boasts quite the cast. Will have to wait and see if he can do as well with this picture.

Daddio has decent reviews but does not sound like it will pull off the acting nominations it is hoping for.