We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of December and see what films faltered. Then we’ll look forward to February and see what has some potential.
Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts
December Retrospective
What became of the month’s big wide releases? Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom did ok at the box office, but whiffed with critics and audiences, so even its nomination potential is almost gone. Migration didn’t do nearly as well as it should have and it has been virtually ignored by precursors. The Boy and the Heron on the other hand was one of Hayao Miyazaki’s biggest box office successes and has been burning up the critics’ circuits. While it is running at the headwinds of Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, it’s doing quite well.
Ferrari has been a box office bomb and Penélope Cruz’s strong potential for a nomination was hampered by precursors that aren’t always excited about recognizing her. The Iron Claw also didn’t manage to conjure up much box office interest, but did well with critics. That said, its late release has likely cratered its Oscar chances. The Color Purple had a smashing Christmas debut, but has since started petering out. The Cinemascore of A is terrific, but it doesn’t seem to have as much legs as thought. Critics have been blasé about the film and its precursor appearances have been largely isolated to Danielle Brooks and the film’s costume design. Finally, we have Wonka. It wasn’t a huge hit with critics, but audiences are loving it, making it a $100 million-plus performer. While that won’t assure its consideration in higher categories, it does bolster its chances in the craft categories where it will struggle against high profile, period dramas competing for the same attention.
ritical response to get it in over other titles.
Limited releases Eileen, Origin, Rebel Moon: Part One, Freud’s Last Session, and The Boys in the Boat have largely proven my suspicion that they aren’t going to gain much traction. Origin has gotten solid reviews, but has been passed over by most critics groups leaving it the only one of the five with any boost and not much of one.
Poor Things has done tremendously well with the precursors and is poised to approach or surpass double digits in the nominations game. It’s competing in many categories and is sure to be nominated in several of them. It is probably the biggest winner of the four remaining titles to look back at on from my December forecast.
The next most celebrated was The Zone of Interest, which has earned quite a bit of attention even in spite of the more acclaimed Anatomy of a Fall soaking up so much attention. It has proven that it can compete with everyone else and score above-the-line nominations, so International Feature isn’t the only award you can expect to see this one in the hunt of a nomination for.
American Fiction may have won the audience award at Toronto, but it’s been a back-bencher all season. While it’s getting the nominations that it needs to in order to make several categories (Picture, Actor, Adapted Screenplay), it hasn’t had much success elsewhere and may be confined to those categories.
Lastly, we have All of Us Strangers, which has gotten excellent reviews and career-best notices for star Andrew Scott. The film has gotten some precursor attention, but seems to be falling behind in most places. The film could have competed in Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay, but it could just as easily miss out on all of those with Scott and the screenplay still in the best positions.
Before I wrap up, I want to look at what else released in December to see if maybe I missed something (or something scheduled late). There are three. Godzilla Minus One, The Teachers’ Lounge and The Crime Is Mine. The latter, I might have put in my list had I known it was for sure releasing, but it would have been quickly removed as any kind of contender simply because it’s gotten no buzz. The Teachers’ Lounge on the other hand has picked up quite a bit of attention and is one of the stronger contenders for an International Feature citation and, I’d say it’s probably sitting in third place on the list of potential nominees.
As to Godzilla Minus One? It was a surprise box office success and has been playing well with critics, picking up several citations, especially in the Foreign Language Film category, but also in Best Visual Effects. It promises to be the most successful of the potential Oscar contenders I didn’t previously cover.
And that’s it. We round out 2023 on a strong note, though many of this year’s topmost contenders came out prior, which is a rare occurrence for December.
February Forecast
One thing to know about January and February is that International Feature Film contenders tend to get their regular theatrical release (not to be confused with their Oscar-qualifying release), so while the month is loaded with such releases, I won’t cover any of them here. Instead, let’s look at the paltry list of unlikely future contenders from a month that seldom sees Oscar longevity for its releases.
There are two films releasing in February that are in line for the 97th Oscars next year but neither has the highest prospects. The reasons are different for each.
Bob Marley: One Love started out as a 2023 contender for Best Actor. Kingsley Ben-Adir has become an actor to watch and this was to be his chance to get in at the Oscars. The problem is that the film got pushed to 2024? I don’t think an official reason has been given, but it could be that the film isn’t nearly as good as the producers were hoping and so burying it in February would allow it to grow into a box office hit or flop and they wouldn’t have to put up an Oscar campaign for it. Could it still contend? Possibly. However, the number of times a February release held on for more than three-quarters of the year is small.
From Sony, Madame Web is the latest film in the extended Marvel universe they have created around the Spider-Man franchise. While the franchise hasn’t had much success at the Oscars, that doesn’t mean they aren’t always contenders. This looks like it could play in Visual Effects like most before it could. Yet, it’s also a February release, which is never a good sign for a film’s Oscar prospects.
Lastly, although strictly not new contenders, the Oscar-Nominated Shorts Program makes a return in February and it’s a great opportunity to look at the Oscar-nominated Animated Short Films, Live Action Short Films, and Documentary Short Subjects. I’m including it just so you know it’s coming and to look forward to it. It’s a great program.
And that’s all for me this month. Here’s what the others have to say.
Pete Patrick’s Thoughts
December Retrospective
The early part of the month saw the premiere of Poor Things, which did very well with end of the year critics’ awards that bode well for Oscar nominations. Godzilla Minus One and Wonka, which debuted mid-month, had notable debuts as well. The highly anticipated Maestro, which received glowing early reviews, had not fared as well with the public. All of Us Strangers and American Fiction, which have had strong showings at the various critics’ awards, had strong limited releases on December 22. Month-end saw the releases of The Iron Claw and The Color Purple, the latter outperforming expectations on Christmas Day when it opened to mixed reviews. Ferrari and The Boys in the Boat, which also opened to mixed reviews on Christmas Day, under-performed.
Poor Things, Maestro, All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, The Color Purple, and the numerous films that expanded during the month including Saltburn and The Holdovers, could have strong visibility during the remaining awards season culminating with the Oscar nominations later this month.
February Forecast
The spy thriller, Argyle; the woman-led superhero movie, Madame Web, and the wide release of The Zone of Interest look to be the big ones for February.
Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts
December Retrospective
The Boy and the Heron will definitely be nominated for best animated feature. Whether this likely last film by Hazao Mizazaki can win is a different matter.
The Zone of Interest is set during WWII which often proves to be Oscar bait. It will be nominated for international feature and adapted screenplay. Best picture, director, cinematography, sound and score are also possibilities. It likely will win the Oscar for international feature.
Wonka was a surprisingly delightful film, not one I was expecting to like much. It could pull off noms for costume and production design, with costume design being the more likely one.
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget is made by Aardman Studios which has done well in the animated categories, and it has an outside chance at the final spot for animated feature. In my mind, it was a better film than the original.
American Fiction has opened to spectacular reviews and a win at Toronto makes it a contender. It seems likely to pick up big nominations for picture, actor and adapted screenplay, and perhaps supporting actor.
Society of the Snow is Spain’s shortlisted entry for international film, and a probable nominee. It could also pick up nominations for score, makeup & hairstyling, and, less likely, visual effects.
All of Us Strangers could possibly pull off nominations for actor and adapted screenplay, but it seems unlikely to get either of those.
Ferrari could pull off a nomination for sound, but that seems the only one it might pick up now.
The Color Purple opened to impressive reviews. It now seems like it could be an Oscar candidate in various categories, but I wonder if it waited too long to open to pull off some of the major ones. Danielle Brooks is poised for supporting actress, but picture and actress seem less likely. Noms for cinematography, costume design, production design, and score are achievable.
February Forecast
The Taste of Things, France’s entry for international film, is shortlisted and will likely score a nomination there. Juliette Binoche has great reviews, but probably cannot break into the best actress category.
They Shot the Piano Player has a very outside chance of getting a nomination for animated feature, but that seems incredibly unlikely.
The Monk and the Gun is Bhutan’s entry and shortlisted for international feature, but it appears unlikely to turn that into a nomination.
Bob Marley: One Love had seemed like it could pull off a couple of nominations like for best actor, but having been moved to a February release, that now is improbable.
