We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of June and see what films succeeded and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to August and see what has some potential.
Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts
June Retrospective
With June in the rearview mirror, the potential Oscar nominees on offering were many but the results were tepid for most of them. Let’s start with the only unqualified success.
Inside Out 2 did well with critics but significantly outperformed everything else released so far this year. It’s box office will go down as the best of any animated film, possibly even when inflation is taken into account. With the reviews and the popularity of the film bolstering it, there’s no question the title will be nominated for the Oscar. Can it win? All signs point to yes. Disney/Pixar have a stranglehold on the category and when they have strong contenders, they typically win, even when their rivals (or even their own intra-studio efforts) are better.
Kinds of Kindness was well regarded by critics but its box office was pretty lackluster. That is to be expected for a Yorgos Lanthimos film. While $5 million is fairly solid for an indie feature, the film did that with a semi-wide expansion in its second week where it placed a disappointing 9th for the weekend and a paltry $3,218 per theater average in its second week. With the massive success of Poor Things, one would expect a much better follow-up performance. It could still contend for Oscar consideration but the early release and the strong future contenders on deck suggest it may fade quickly. Original Screenplay and a couple of acting nominations would still be possible.
Two films that did well with critics but had anemic box office runs were The Bikeriders and Hit Man. Bikeriders went wide hoping to draw on fans of Elvis, which catapulted Adam Butler to fame. Unfortunately, the film took a shellacking in its opening frame, just under $10 million releasing into almost 3,000 theaters is not very good. It has since plummeted with drops greater than 60% every single week so far. Topping out at $20 million might have been good for an art film but for a wide release its just awful. That’s going to drag down its potential with Oscar voters and ultimately lead to ignorance by the Academy.
Hit Man did much better with critics but wasn’t released to theaters, just to Netflix. We don’t have much indication of how popular it was with streaming audiences but Glen Powell’s presence may have goosed its performance a little bit. Perhaps more will take a look at the film after Twisters releases this coming weekend but I anticipate it will take a heavy push by critics groups at year end to vault it into the competition. Ultimately, I suspect it will be overlooked.
Now to the film that desperately needed audience to rescue it. Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 was the first of a planned four-part film series two release over the next two years. Directed and starring Kevin Costner, who abandoned his successful television western performance to tilt at the box office windmill found that audiences weren’t quite ready to make his event picture much of an event. Things started out poorly with critics giving the film mediocre reviews. Had they been sensational, we might have seen a bump in box office receipts but without some measure of support, Costner’s film cratered. With just over $11 million in its opening weekend released in over 3,000 theaters, the film became one of the biggest and most expensive failures of the year. It was so bad that the release of the second film in theaters in August was pulled. It will still release on streaming, hoping to improve the film’s performance but the third and fourth chapters are either likely to be axed before they are complete or will shift to streaming as well. Costner’s return to Oscar graces were dashed by a combination of unimpressive reviews and uninspired box office performance.
With those in the rearview mirror, what’s coming in August?
August Forecast
The biggest issue with August and September releases is that many studios dump their films with the lowest Oscar potential in these two months. As such, August is pretty anemic in terms of potential Oscar offerings with a single title on schedule right now that seems likely to have some chance at the Oscars.
Ridley Scott is stepping away from the Alien franchise and will have his own sequel to Gladiator coming out later this year. Instead, Fede Alvarez will turn his horror successes with the Evil Dead rebirth and Don’t Breathe into a mainstream series debut with Alien: Romulus, the latest attempt to right the Alien spaceship, which has been listing badly for several years. Taking the film back to its horror roots is a smart move as the flagrant excesses of more recent efforts weren’t as popular with audiences as the series had been accustomed to. If it’s even remotely good, it will do well at the box office. What matters most for Oscar attention is whether the film does anything new or impressive with its craft categories. After all, a Best Picture nomination is out of the question. Can it get nominated in Cinematography, Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Sound, or Visual Effects? Possibly but I suspect it might struggle against other films that won’t be hampered by the horror label, franchise or not.
And that’s it. One single August release that I can see having any Oscar potential. That said, Pete and Thomas may have different opinions on what’s to come, so let’s get to them.
Pete Patrick’s Thoughts
June Retrospective
The only clear Oscar contender from June that I see is Inside Out 2. Possible contenders include Hit Man and The Bikeriders, but that’s about it.
August Forecast
I am not seeing any major Oscar contenders, but I do see a few possible box office hits from amongst a group of mostly sci-fi, horror, and mystery films.
The sci-fi Alien: Romulus which opens early in the month could be the month’s biggest hit, but it may face strong competition from three other films as the month goes on.
M. Night Shayamalan’s Trap with Josh Hartnett and Hayley Mills has the potential be the horror director’s biggest hit in years.
Zoe Kazan’s mystery thriller, Blink Twice with Channing Tatum and Naomi Ackie seems to have a Knives Out vibe to it which is very popular these days.
Chris Weitz’s AfrAId with John Cho as the head of a family in a new AI-controlled home looks like it could be an American Parasite.
Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts
June Retrospective
Inside Out 2, the sequel to the Oscar-winning Inside Out, is a certified hit and should easily get a nomination for animated feature.
The Bikeriders had sounded like it could pull off some nominations when it was due for a late 2023 release, though that seems less likely with a June release.
Fancy Dance has good reviews for Oscar nominee Lily Gladstone, so perhaps she could get a second nomination for this.
Horizon: An American Saga sounds like the type of film that in the past might pull off nominations, but the reviews were not kind, so that seems unlikely.
Kinds of Kindness has to be ruled a contender as it is from Yorgos Lanthimos and boasts quite the cast. Will have to wait and see if he can do as well with this picture. I doubt it will do as well as Poor Things did with Oscar nominations, but it is likely to pick up some.
August Forecast
Most of the movies releasing in August do not look like Oscar contenders. Most of it looks pretty bad, though a couple might prove worthwhile.
Sugarcane looks to be a powerful documentary and could easily score a nomination and perhaps even a win.
Alien: Romulus could be a contender for visual effects and sound, though the latter films in the series have not scored many nominations.
The Count of Monte Cristo is the type of film that often gets nods for costumes and production design, and maybe even Makeup & Hairstyling. The first reviews are very good, so it might become France’s nominee for International Film.
Between the Temples sounds like the kind of indie film that can net a screenplay nomination, though being such a Jewish film might hurt its chances at this point.
Close Your Eyes also seems like it could be a screenplay and International Film nominee, as the early reviews are very good.
The Supremes at Earls All-You-Can-Eat was bandied about as a possible acting triumph last year, before its release was put off, so it still could pull off some nominations.
