We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of March and see what films succeeded or faltered. Then we’ll look forward to May and see what has some potential.
Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts
March Retrospective
March was a decent month at the box office for several films but that won’t help some movies with dismal reviews becoming Oscar contenders. Let’s take a look at the five films I highlighted two months ago and we’ll look at them in reverse likelihood of getting Oscar nominations.
We start off with The American Society of Magical Negroes. The film had a lot of potential to become a box office hit, which might have allowed the film to push for an Oscar nomination or two. Critics trashed the film heavily and after just three weeks in theaters after a modest wide release, the film has already left the cineplex. Scratch this one off your list immediately.
Next up are the mediocre reviews for Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire. Critics weren’t enamored but audiences were. Still, it’s box office numbers haven’t been great. After three weeks in wide release, the film hasn’t even crossed the $90 million benchmark, which puts it $40 million away from its 2021 predecessor. With this series never being strong Oscar contenders as it is, these numbers don’t suggest even a Visual Effects nomination is likely.
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire debuted to better than average reviews but they weren’t stellar. What bolsters the film over Ghostbusters is that it was a much bigger box office hit, crossing $135 million after only two weeks in release. While that might boost its Oscar chances, the win last year for the better reviewed Godzilla Minus One in Best Visual Effects might give that branch pause in nominating another Godzilla movie in the span of two years.
Solid reviews and a decent box office tally will likely keep Kung Fu Panda 4 from being utterly ignored by the Academy. The prior films weren’t Best Animated Feature guarantees and neither is this one but being the fourth part of a vaunted series and getting good reviews and box office might help keep it in the conversation longer.
Last but certainly not least is Dune: Part Two. The follow up to 2021 Oscar winner Dune has managed to improve on that film’s numbers. While the pandemic hit its predecessor hard, there was nothing standing in this film’s way at the box office where it has topped $256 million after 6 weekends at the box office. That’s considerably impressive and means the film has more than doubled the 2021 film’s box office. It also improved the critics reviews over the prior, which had already debuted to strong reviews. That means this will likely be the first sequel to have a great shot at an Oscar nomination for Best Picture since 2002’s The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers. This may well be one of the most nominated films of the year as well.
May Forecast
Let’s shift our crystal ball’s gaze to May, a month that has typically signaled the beginning of blockbuster season. As such, two major features release to the box office hoping to ride their prior films’ glories to major box office numbers and perhaps even Oscar recognition. Throw in there a lesser known release that is hoping to improve upon the recent musician biopic trend and an animated feature not from the major houses and you could have a very heavy month of Oscar contenders. That said, I cannot imagine a couple of these doing very well, so like March, I’m going to hit these up in order from least likely to most.
Back to Black is a musical biopic of late singer Amy Winehouse who rose to stardom quickly and succumbed to the curse of the 27 Club. Newcomer Marisa Abela stars in Sam Taylor-Johnson’s latest music-centered drama. The film has the pedigree to be successful but will need strong reviews to overcome a weakening trend for music biopics at the Oscars where several have attempted to crash the party recently and failed. We’ll have to see if it does as well with critics as some of Taylor-Johnson’s past films and, from there, it will need mega box office success to crack the Oscars.
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is the latest film in the vaunted franchise that saw its origins in 1968 and the 2011 rebirth of the series. The film hopes to follow in its three immediate predecessors’ footsteps with nominations in Best Visual Effects. The film is directed by someone new and follows a different storyline than the three films released from 2011 through 2017, which might hinder its chances. However, like those films, if this one’s motion capture usage improves upon rather than replicates those films, it could be an easy nominee.
We step away from the wide box office to a film releasing more limitedly. Mars Express is a French sci-fi animated feature set in a dystopian future not unlike Blade Runner or Ghost in the Machine. If it can establish itself as one of the best films of the year, even for animation, an Oscar nomination could be in the offing. The film has a César nomination for Best Animated Feature, which could bolster its prospects but foreign language animated features often struggle in the U.S., so we’ll just have to wait and see.
Finally, the biggest title on May’s release calendar. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga is the latest Mad Max-universe film from director George Miller. He’s never been one to step away from the universe he created, so it already carries some high expectations. Can he live up to Mad Max: Fury Road? We’ll have to see but his past output suggests he should be able to stick the landing. That said, while that first film won several Oscars and was nominated for Best Picture, I’m leery of this one’s chances of another Best Picture nomination. It should still rack up several craft nominations but I suspect that being a prequel will hurt it with Academy members, though that didn’t stop the prior film, so who knows?
And that wraps up my May forecast. Here is Pete with his opinions.
Pete Patrick’s Thoughts
March Retrospective
The only March release likely to be remembered at the end of the year is Dune: Part Two which will undoubtedly figure in major year-end awards.
May Forecast
May hopefuls include the action comedy, The Fall Guy with Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt; Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes in a new era; the biographical drama, Sight; new animation in The Garfield Movie voiced by Chris Pratt, Samuel L. Jackson, and Nicholas Hoult, and the fantasy film, IF with Ryan Reynolds and John Krasinski. Of this group, The Fall Guy and IF seem to be the most likely to find fans across all demographics.
