We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of May and see what films pulled ahead and which faltered. Then we’ll look forward to July and see what has some potential. Normally, this will post earlier in the moth preceding our forecast, but posting delays got in the way. We’ll try to do a better job next month.
Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts
For May releases, I’m going to break this into three parts. First up, we have the wide box office releases that had some measure of potential due to their high visibility. The Little Mermaid was the most anticipated of the batch, crossing the $100 million mark by midweek and earning strong reviews (88 on MetaCritic, though a more dismal 67% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes). While the film isn’t likely to pique Oscar voters’ interests in the Best Picture or other topline races, several craft categories have potential like Production Design, Costume Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Another big producer was Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. The latest Marvel adventure had a much better roll out than Ant-Man, but the box office tally wasn’t as impressive as other entries in the franchise. The film could still have some leverage in the craft categories, but since the prior films both underperformed, I wouldn’t count on it. Finally, there’s Fast X, a franchise that has always been ignored by the Academy. It was a major step down from its predecessor in terms of box office success and critical reception. That’s not the profile needed to turn around its Oscar fortunes.
Next up, let’s look at five May releases that were on my radar going into the month and how they performed with critics. Then, we’ll highlight four films that performed quite well with critics and might have some residual potential. Chile ’76, The Starling Girl, L’immensita, The Cow Who Sang a Song Into the Future, and You Hurt My Feelings all had potential heading into May. Of these, You Hurt My Feelings was the clear winner with incredibly strong critical reception. Chile ’76 and The Starling Girl also performed well with critics, but L’immensita wasn’t well supported and The Cow had its adherents, but nothing impressive. I wouldn’t count out L’immensita yet because it does boast a strong performance by Penélope Cruz, but any of the others could hold onto that lead going into Oscar season, but will struggle to find categories where a one-off nomination is possible. That said, You Hurt My Feelings has the best potential of the five and will at least contend for its screenwriting.
Continuing with other May releases, Queens of the Qing Dynasty, Reality, The Night of the 12th, and BlackBerry were all praised by critics and could have some Oscar chances if sentiment favors them, but of these, only BlackBerry seemed to garner widespread attention. Still, it’s a comedy in the vein of Adam McKay, but it doesn’t have McKay’s clout to leverage into a major Oscar run. These films are also all likely too niche to be supported by the Academy, much like the prior five films.
Lastly, let’s look at the films that premiered at and earned acclaim at the Cannes film festival. There were seven major award winners that need to be kept in the back of your mind: About Dry Grasses, Anatomy of a Fall, Fallen Leaves, Monster, Perfect Days, The Pot-Au-Feu, and The Zone of Interest. Of these, Anatomy of a Fall, The Pot-Au-Feu, and The Zone of Interest are the most likely to cross over into Oscar contention, but Cannes isn’t one of the most influential festivals on Oscar voting, so they’ll need massive critical support to thrive.
There were three films that had their Cannes premiere whose prospects are stronger by having major names attached. Wes Anderson was in competition with Asteroid City while Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon and James Mangold’s Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny were both shown out of competition. The bad news for Anderson and Mangold is neither film ignited excitement and while both would still be good pets for craft citations, neither seems destined for cross-over support in major categories. Killers of the Flower Moon, on the other hand, had a great reception and its buzz is only building towards the Academy Awards with several citations possible, including the major ones we’ve been predicting all season.
And that’s everything from May worth looking back at. As to July, well that’s a duller month in certain ways. First, there are no festivals scheduled, so we won’t have a lot of small films to consider. There will be plenty of limited releases, but most attention will be put towards potential blockbusters. Here are the films I see as having some measure of potential releasing in July.
Of wide releases, there are four with Oscar aspirations and one that might need some. We’ll start with the latter. Early response to Joy Ride has been enthusiastic and comparisons to Bridesmaids don’t appear to come lightly. That film was a surprise Oscar nominee, so Joy Ride has some potential, but I would be surprised if it made many inroads with Academy voters. The same could be said for Haunted Mansion, which doesn’t have the early buzz, but has plenty of technical merits that Disney can exploit. That said, even with their high production values, the studio can’t always turn its films into Oscar successes, especially when they are derived from their theme park attractions.
Of the remaining three, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Part One is the only film that won’t compete outside of craft categories, but Film Editing and Sound certainly seem like possibilities. The other two titles are going head-to-head on the same weekend and with Oscar voters. Barbie is Oscar-nominated filmmaker Greta Gerwig’s third solo directing effort and that’s on the heels of her two prior Best Picture-nominated successes Lady Bird and Little Women. This film is the real test of her appeal to Oscar voters as it’s her most commercial effort. That said, the film’s first trailer was fantastic and buzzy, so if the film lives up to expectations, then our early predictions could be proven accurate. This is equally true of Oppenheimer, Christopher Nolan’s first traditional, historical narrative and his first to not have the genre labels weighing him down. It’s another case of if the film lives up to expectations, it could be an Oscar heavyweight.
And rounding out my report this month are four films with limited releases in July that could have some measure of Oscar potential. Indie comedy Biosphere doesn’t seem like Academy-friendly fare, but buzz has built around it as a solid critical effort. Next up is Earth Mama, Savanah Leaf’s Sundance release enters public cinemas. It’s probably the weaker of the four with no major prizes in tow. Berlinale competitor Afire from director Christian Petzold won the Silver Bear earlier this year, which is a positive sign for its potential. Lastly, Nicolas Cage’s latest manic performance comes in Sympathy for the Devil. It has no festival prospects and is trading entirely on Cage’s name for success, but it looks to be a balls-to-the-wall performance, which suggests it could generate some minor buzz.
And that’s everything for this May Retrospective and July Forecast. I’ll see you next month.
Peter J. Patrick’s Thoughts
Winners from May
Only The Little Mermaid looks to be an Oscar contender and that’s only in Visual Effects.
Contenders in July
Both Barbie and Oppenheimer look like strong Oscar contenders in multiple categories including Best Picture. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One could be a contender in technical categories.
