We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of November and see what films faltered. Then we’ll look forward to December and see what has some potential.
Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts
November Retrospective
It’s difficult to discuss the November retrospective, without also taking into account precursors that have already announced. These thoughts will reflect some of that and will be the first set to ultimately come under the harsh light of recent interrogation at the hands of critics.
As I had previously discussed Priscilla and Maestro, I didn’t discuss them in my November forecast. I’ll touch on them briefly here however. Priscilla‘s biggest claim to fame was star Cailee Spaeny and based on the precursors so far, she’s not gaining any traction. The same could also be said for Maestro, which premiered to raves, but has failed to secure sufficient attention from the precursors to be the major player many of us thought it might be.
Tackling the wide releases that I briefly touched on, The Marvels remains a Best Visual Effects contender even though it was a box office disappointment and was unfairly reviewed. Wish suffered even worse and while it seems to be an also-ran in Animated Feature, the song is still in contention and the film is getting some small amount of traction as a potential nominee in Animated Feature even if it can’t win. The third is Trolls Band Together, which got decent reviews, but has been a non-entity in the precursors so far. Though an Animated Feature nomination is a weak prospect for the third Trolls film, Best Original Song is a much stronger possibility.
Speaking of non-entities, Taika Waititi’s latest film, Next Goal Wins, looks to have released to tepid reviews and has been utterly ignored by the precursors. That leaves Napoleon. Ridley Scott’s historical epic has divided critics and has been barely seen in the precursors so far. Perhaps some craft category nominations could still come its way, but its prospects are limited.
That leaves two films from November that I touched on, Rustin and Saltburn. Both films appeal to different audiences and while the former received adequate reviews, the latter was the more intriguing of the two releases in terms of its reception. Sure, there were a lot of people who despised it, but it’s got a surprisingly vocal support group. That doesn’t translate into Oscar consideration. Matter of fact, the only element of the film that seems to be getting any chatter is Rosamund Pike in Best Supporting Actress. As for Rustin, that film has gotten exactly two avenues to Oscar nominations, star Colman Domingo and its original song. Otherwise, it seems to be largely ignored.
One thing I think I neglected to do last month was look at releases that I didn’t give attention to that might have come out of nowhere to earn some attention. Other than documentaries, the only other titles that seem to have gotten any attention so far is Fallen Leaves, Dream Scenario, All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt, and Radical.
Dream Scenario is getting some love for star Nicolas Cage and Radical, has gotten three citations so far. All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt has gotten quite a bit of acclaim, but its major awards considerations came from the Spirit Awards. On the other hand, Fallen Leaves has put Aki Kaurismaki into some unexpected positions, even nabbing nominations at the Golden Globes. That’s a coup and could elevate its name recognition going into a crucial stage of Oscar Precursor Season.
With those out of the way, let’s take a brief look at January.
January Forecast
I say brief because January is one of the worst times of the year to release Oscar contenders. Other than the odd foreign language release that finally gets a broader release outside of its Oscar-qualifying run, few wide releases have much chance.
Still, there are a couple of titles worth noting. I.S.S. is a visual effects extravaganza and that alone gives it some boost into next year’s Oscar race, though unlikely. Just ask 65.
I also want to recognize Origin‘s wide release the same weekend as I.S.S.. The film got a decent festival run this year and has already gotten an Oscar-qualifying run this year, but it will be most visible in January, which could benefit the film. While director Ava DuVernay and star Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor have some Oscar clout, it won’t likely be enough to off-set the lack of attention it’s gotten so far.
And with that, let’s let the others have their say.
Pete Patrick’s Thoughts
November Retrospective
November was packed with films either opening or expanding, of which Maestro, The Holdovers, and May December continue to gain traction with year-end awards. Saltburn is still a question mark, but Nyad and Rustin, having received less than unanimous critical raves, seem to be floundering. Napoleon and The Marvels seem to be beyond hope for major awards though both may do well with technical awards.
January Forecast
No major films are releasing in January, but year-end theatrical releases will expand. The big January event will be the Sundance Film Festival, as it is every year, this one marking the festival’s 40th anniversary.
Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts
November Retrospective
Priscilla has an outside chance of scoring a nomination for best actress for Cailee Spaeny, but that field is so strong that I doubt she will make it.
Nyad could nab nominations for lead actress Annette Bening and supporting actress Jodie Foster. At this point it seems that Foster has the edge on a nomination, though neither seem likely to win.
Rustin should easily get a nomination for Colman Domingo for best actor, with a possibility of one for best song too.
The Marvels might get a nomination for visual effects, but that seems unlikely.
The Killer could be nominated for score and film editing.
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes is a possibility for Makeup & Hairstyling, though I doubt it will pull that off.
Trolls Band Together is a possibility for animated feature and original song, though earlier films in the franchise have not done well in either category.
May December could pull off noms for Natalie Portman, Julianne Moore, and Charles Melton, with other possibilities for picture and original screenplay. Christopher Melton seems the most likely nominee.
Saltburn had mixed early reviews, even leaning towards polarizing, but the later ones seem more favorable. It has an outside chance of noms for cinematography and original screenplay, but neither is likely.
Napoleon had sounded like Oscar bait, but Ridley Scott’s latest work was not well reviewed. It might pull off tech noms for cinematography, production, and costume design, but right now even those do not seem that likely.
Wish is a definite animated feature nominee, with a strong possibility for original song.
Maestro will be a definite Oscar player. It should pull off easy nominations for picture, actor, actress, original screenplay, sound, and makeup & hairstyling. Other possibilities are for director, costume design and production design.
January Forecast
Origin has a very outside chance of nominations for picture, director, original screenplay and actress, but seems unlikely to get any of them.
Totem is the Mexican entrant for International Film and might pull off a nomination there, or at least make the short list.
Society of the Snow is Spain’s entrant for International Film and could make the short list, though not so likely to score an actual nomination.
The Peasants is Poland’s entrant for International Film and could make the short list, though it is not as likely to score an actual nomination.
