We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of October and see what films succeeded and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to December and see what has some potential.

Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts

October Retrospective
With October in the rearview window and Oscar season ramping up with various precursors coming out, we’re coming down to a crunch time that will make our break our cards. Looking back at October releases, it seems like a lot of films got good reviews but didn’t build a reputation Oscar voters would consider. That said, it wasn’t all mediocrity for October’s releases, there was one very real and very spectacular flop.

Let’s start with that flub. Joker: Folie á Deux is one of the worst-reviewed sequels of all-time. While some praise was offered to Joaquin Phoenix and Lady Gaga, most of the vitriol wasn’t spared for the film itself. You might find a smattering of support for the film but overall, the critical drubbing it took paired with its box office flop, this film looks to be out of the competition.

There were two titles that got solid reviews but which seemed to failed to live up to the expectations that could have made them potent contenders. Saturday Night did decently with critics and its $9 million box office isn’t bad but for a film that had the potential to draw in plenty of moviegoers, it seemed to fade too quickly and not leave much of an impression. A screenwriting nomination could still be possible but the film’s chances seem to be fading.

While it isn’t the blockbuster it could have been, We Live in Time has put together a satisfactory $21 million so far. While that’s not the blockbuster level something like It Ends with Us achieved, it’s a respectable number for a film that platformed to a wide release. Still, the reviews are solid but nothing stands out enough to seem like a major Oscar threat at this point.

The next five films are all hits with critics but have varying degrees of Oscar potential. We’ll start with the least and work our way up.

While animated features have struggled in recent years, they have begun to rebound with the major success of Inside Out 2. That should have given a film like Piece by Piece plenty of room to maneuver. Bolstered by strong reviews, the film opened wide and managed to flop badly. Sure, it’s a documentary but it had popular music in it and its subject, Pharrell Williams, is quite popular. To eke out just shy of $10 million in five weeks is about as bad as it can get. That doesn’t mean it can’t contender for the Oscar category of Best Animated Feature but there are a lot of strongly-reviewed films that have more potential and it just seems like with the competition, this one will need to be comfortable being called an also-ran.

Despite a strong performance at the specialty box office, A Real Pain doesn’t seem to have built much on its early year festival run. It has the profile of an Oscar contender but there are a lot of those this year and a film like this is likely to get forgotten unless critics rescue it, which doesn’t seem certain.

Another Animated Feature contender is Memoir of a Snail, which is getting raves. The problem is that the film made an effort to release to theaters and flopped badly, dropping to just over $2k per screen in its second week before it was pulled. That’s not the profile of an Oscar player. That said, it’s an inventive film and stop-motion animation can do quite well with the Academy. The problem is that the Wallace and Gromit sequel will likely suck up most of the oxygen in terms of medium this year and that could hurt Memoir. If there were less stiff competition, I could see it as a nominee, but right now it’s teetering on the edge.

Last is a film that won the Palme d’Or and has pleased critics tremendously. Anora was a major Oscar contender after Cannes but with its strong reviews and even more surprisingly strong box office (already at $7 million after four-weeks in release on the specialty circuit, expanding this past weekend, the film seems destined to be one of the major players, if not the major player.

That’s October. Now, let’s look through the December releases which have a lot of potential with several wide releases in contention along with three limited ones (two of which should go wide shortly after).

December Forecast

There are a few titles that I doubt will open wide even if they are listed as such now. We’ll start with those.

Babygirl looks to be a psychosexual thriller about a D/S relationship where Nicole Kidman plays a powerful woman who submits to a dominant young man. She got strong reviews out of the festival circuit and the film also good good notices but it didn’t seem like they were as enthusiastic for the film as for Kidman. Kidman will be in play for a Best Actress nomination but will Academy voters see her character as one they would want to nominate? Not likely but she’s still in the chase. Kidman is also likely the reason they are targeting a wide release.

Stars do make the choice of wide vs. limited easier. Case-in-point is Timothée Chalamet starring as a young Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown. Chalamet has had a string of high profile successes (the Dune films and Wonka) but this is a different type of film and while Dylan certainly has fans, long gone are the days of films like Coal Miner’s Daughter performing well at the box office. That said, biopics on Freddie Mercury and Elton John did well with audiences, so it’s possible the wide release could be successful. As to its Oscar fortunes. The film has taken far too long to get before critics and that delay might make it difficult to get a foothold into this year’s competition. It’s possible Chalamet will still be a nominee but his film must get unequivocal raves before it becomes more than that.

The Fire Inside has been dawdling in its release but is finally getting before audiences. While this kind of sports drama can do well, this film doesn’t look like it would benefit in that way. I could very easily see the film cratering at the box office. Even if it’s a success, it’s a long row to hoe for Oscar contention. It’s build up almost no buzz other than initial interest in the film. That alone is likely enough to doom its chances.

For vampire fans, Nosferatu would seem like a solid contender for a wide release but Robert Eggers has yet to make a film that would benefit without a limited or platform release schedule. It’s one of the remaining unknown quotients of this year’s Oscar race. Eggers has been struggling to break through in recent years and while he’s due for an emergence, it might not be a film like this. That said, this is probably his most mainstream subject so far so it’s entirely possible it can help him break through. That said, the competition this year is fierce and it will need raves to stand out.

Before critics started seeing September 5, no one gave it a second glance. Since its first reviews out of the festival circuit, it’s been slowly building into a contender. With the recent U.S. elections fresh in our mind, it’s possible the film could do gangbusters with the Academy but a wide release? That seems like lunacy. This would benefit from word of mouth and it won’t get that with a wide release, even with great reviews. It remains one of the late-breaking major Oscar-contenders so who knows for certain.

There are two films that will release wide that have Oscar potential but both will be in niche categories.

The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim is a prequel of sorts to Peter Jackson’s Lord of the Rings trilogy. The hampering factor is that it’s animated. That might not matter to audiences who could still make it a hit but for Oscar voters, an adaptation into the animated medium often suggests a difficult road ahead. The film is on my shortlist of potential nominees for Animated Feature but I could also see a case for it missing the final five. That’s because competition is hefty this year and I’m not sure this movie will have the gravitas to sneak in.

In terms of Oscar contenders, Mufasa: The Lion King claim to contention is that it’s a sequel to the live-action, Oscar-winning The Lion King. That means it’s sure to be a contender for Best Visual Effects where its predecessor won. That said, I doubt it can find a way into the Oscar race in any other categories except maybe Original Song (if there is one or many). The first film didn’t come within a country mile of any other category and I suspect the same fate will be fall this one.

Our final grouping is composed of films that are releasing on the specialty circuit. I expect two of them to expand quickly (possibly even shift to wide instead of limited before release). The others aren’t likely to get past the specialty houses.

Hard Truths is one of these latter films. Mike Leigh’s latest film, reteaming with Oscar nominee Marianne Jean-Baptiste (for his Secrets & Lies). Although the film has already gotten strong reviews from critics, its festival performance didn’t portend a major Oscar contender. That could change once people see it. Never count Leigh out for a screenwriting nomination but considering the current political climate, I could see a lot of voters opting for this film.

I was dubious about Nightbitch‘s Oscar chances as it seemed to be a film with all buzz and no success. Amy Adams was thought to be the film’s major Oscar contender but it seems to have stagnated in recent months and has not really built on its initial optimism. The film’s premise may be what’s getting in the way. Adams plays a woman who slowly takes on the characteristics of a dog. It’s a strange concept and one that isn’t likely to have broad appeal but if it gets even decent reviews, it could easily go wide. As for Oscar? I seriously doubt its chances at this point. Adams is running around 7th or 8th in my estimation (if not lower). The film is an even less likely possibility.

The other title that I think will remain a niche specialty player is Nickel Boys. It was well reviewed by critics but hasn’t made much noise since its festival debut. It was originally slated for an October release but has been pushed to the more advantageous position of December. While it is conceivable that two Black-centric features become Best Picture nominees, history suggests that’s an uphill climb. With this and The Piano Lesson competing for similar voters, the question is which will make it over the threshold. While Nickel Boys has better overall reviews, Piano Lesson has more cachet and has a bigger backer. While I won’t say that could be detrimental to Nickel Boys, it’s certainly not helpful. The film’s shift to December is a good sign. It will get the Oscar push that it deserves. It will also make it a bit fresher than Netflix release Piano Lesson. That could be the determining factor.

Lastly, we have the final major Animated Feature contender Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl. Aardman animation is one of the most consistent studios in terms of Oscar nominations in that category. The prior film is an Oscar winner even, which gives this film a decent shot at a repeat nomination (though a win may be doubtful). Early reviews are definitely strong and of the four limited releases I reference here, it’s the most likely to become a box office hit in a platform-to-wide release. The first film only made $56 million at the box office but that’s pretty good for a film that doesn’t come from one of the major studios. If this one is even remotely similar in its box office pull, a Best Animated Feature nomination seems certain, especially paired with its great reviews.

Before I wrap up, I wrote the above before refreshing my list of films that were releasing in December. Several were not listed when I initially put this grouping together but now are, so I’m adding those now.

Everyone was high on The Brutalist when it was announced but it didn’t seem that intriguing an Oscar prospect at the time. I’ve warmed up to its chances recently and think it could be a contender but not perhaps the major one some have suggested. Adrien Brody could finally break the Oscar curse and return for a nomination decades after his unexpected win for The Pianist. What might help this film more than anything else is the U.S. election results. That could place this film into contention a bit more strongly than it might have otherwise been.

Then there’s The Room Next Door. Pedro Almodóvar’s first English-language film. It got strong notices and Tilda Swinton is said to give a brilliant performance. Yet, people seem lukewarm on its Oscar chances. While I’m a bit more bullish on the film than others, it’s possible the film could struggle being a character study rather than an epic film. That said, you shouldn’t underestimate Almodóvar or Swinton in terms of their Oscar appeal. Both have gotten surprise nominations in the past so don’t count them out just yet.

And that’s everything I have this month. Let’s get input from Pete and Thomas before wrapping things up.

Pete Patrick’s Thoughts

October Retrospective
Back in September, I thought the hit films of October would be Joker: Folie à Deux, Saturday Night Live, and the remake of Stephen King’s ‘Salem’s Lot with the first two making a strong case for Oscar consideration.  Joker: Folie à Deux proved to be a dud both critically and with the public – no Oscar nods seem forthcoming.  Saturday Night Live was a modest hit that could see a few Oscar nods, but it is by no means the juggernaut some prognosticators expected it to be.  ‘Salem’s Lot opened to dismal reviews and poor box office.

December Forecast
Lots of films opening in December.  I would expect the Bob Dylan biopic, A Complete Unknown and the animated The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohiirim to be the biggest hits and most likely Oscar contenders for Best Picture and Best Animated Feature, respectively.  Other strong box-office contenders include the animated Mufasa: The Lion King and the latest version of the horror classic, Nosferatu.  Critical hits vying for Oscar attention will include The Brutalist, Babygirl, and to a lesser extent, Nickel Boys, Nightbitch, and Oh, Canada.

Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts

October Retrospective
Several October releases did not do as well as expected, which will definitely hurt their Oscar chances.

Joker: Folie à Deux crashed upon release and might pick up a couple of tech noms or one for song, but I doubt any of the big ones are still within reach.

Saoirse Ronan is said to give an exceptional performance in The Outrun. The big question mark will be whether she is nominated for this or for Blitz, or perhaps both. I am doubting that she can pull off the double nomination and might end up with neither.

Saturday Night about the creation of Saturday Night Live might pick up a writing nomination.

Anora has been a critical darling and should easily score nominations for picture, director, actress, and screenplay. It has to be considered a front runner for best picture, actress, and screenplay.

Memoir of a Snail looks likely to take one of the spots for animated feature.

Nickel Boys is poised to pick up nominations for supporting actress and adapted screenplay.

Conclave remains a major player and should easily pick up nominations for picture, director, actor, supporting actor, score, and adapted screenplay. Supporting actress, cinematography, editing, and productions design are also possibilities.

Piece by Piece has an outside chance for an animated feature nom, but it seems not to have caught on with audiences which will hurt its chances.

December Forecast
The last major films come out in December which will help round out our predictions. It looks like November will have had more major releases when it comes to multiple nominations. The Brutalist looks to be the only best picture nominee in the bunch, though a couple acting nominees and tech ones should come from this set of movies.

Nightbitch could bring Amy Adams another Oscar nomination where she would not win, but her chances are slim for even the nom now.

Maria should get Angelina Jolie another Oscar nomination and probably a couple more for tech.

The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim has an outside chance of getting a nomination for animated feature, but that does not seem likely.

Mufasa: The Lion King might get a nomination for visual effects, but its chances seem to be fading.

The Brutalist became a critical darling which should translate into multiple nominations, including picture, director, actor, supporting actress, and screenplay as well as several tech categories.

The Room Next Door is director Pedro Almódovar’s English language debut film. It had seemed likely to get several nominations but seems to have lost traction in all categories and will likely earn none.

Babygirl looks likely to score Nicole Kidman another nomination for lead actress.

A Complete Unknown should score a nod for Timothee Chalamet, but it seems unlikely now that it will get any others.

Nosferatu will likely be nominated for Makeup & Hairstyling and has outside chances for cinematography, production design and costume design.