We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of October and see what films faltered. Then we’ll look forward to December and see what has some potential.
Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts
October Retrospective
In retrospect, October had a solid output with five of the six releases performing well with critics. We’ll start by getting the one flub out of the way. She Came to Me was an unusual film and critics weren’t inspired by it. It had a strong cast, but they couldn’t buoy the film’s quality. So, toss that one out as a non-contender.
The remaining five titles range from a surefire major contender to films with chances at one or two nominations at max.
We’ll start at the bottom and work our way up with the two films that are unlikely to score more than one or two nominations. Nyad had some decent critical support, but seems like the kind of film that may secure two acting nominations (Annette Bening and Jodie Foster) and nothing else. Foster has the better shot since she’s contending in a weak Best Supporting Actress slate whereas Bening may struggle to even get a nomination over the absolutely stacked Best Actress list. The other film in this category will struggle similarly. Sofia Coppola’s Priscilla, coming so soon after Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis, was a divisive film with some critics frustrated with its treatment of Elvis and others praising Coppola’s bravery at such a portrayal. This one could make it into one of the craft categories (Costume Design maybe), but its biggest shot is in Best Actress where Cailee Spaeny’s Venice win for Best Actress might bolster the neophyte into an Oscar nom. That said, she faces a similar struggle as Bening with a way-too-congested category.
I don’t expect Anatomy of a Fall to earn many Oscar nominations, but more than two is possible. Its chances for one category were dashed when France refused to send the film to the Oscars. That snub might bolster the film’s chances in Best Picture and Best Directing, though perhaps not enough. The end-of-year slate is pretty stacked and since Sandra Hüller is running behind several other Best Actress contenders, a screenwriting nomination might be its only chance, though if it picks up all of those, that’s four, so it’s a step above the prior two, which really don’t have more than a couple of paths forward.
It’s been a while since we talked about Alexander Payne and the loving relationship the Academy has with his work. The Holdovers received strong reviews and came out of the festival circuit as a prime contender in several categories, including Picture, Directing, Actor (Paul Giamatti), Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph), and Original Screenplay. Little has changed about the film’s trajectory and it seems like it can count on several of those citations with Directing and Actor among the weakest. Betting against Payne at the Oscars is an unwise decision.
That brings us the biggest contender of the month and one of the biggest of the year. Killers of the Flower Moon is Martin Scorsese’s latest and it’s gotten a lot of strong reviews. The cast and the production have been praised significantly and its chances at nominations in Picture, Directing, Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio), Actress (Lily Gladstone), Supporting Actor (Robert De Niro), Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, and Sound are all high. Honestly, I can’t imagine the film not getting any of these. Visual Effects and Supporting Actress would be the only two categories it could compete in, but likely won’t. Suffice it to say, it was a good month for Marty.
December Forecast
December is always the best month of the year for Oscar contenders. Many films wait until closer to the beginning of Oscar season to ride acclaim to Oscar nominations. There hasn’t been a year in a long time where a December release didn’t pick up something. To that end, I’m going to break down the month’s scheduled releases by wide openings and limited ones, starting with wide.
There are several potential blockbusters on offering in December, any one of which could score a few craft nominations or an Animated Feature nod. The first film, a film only likely to compete in Sound and Visual Effects is Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom. The film is most certainly not going to be at the same quality level as the rest of the films on this list, but quality and Visual Effects don’t have to go hand-in-hand.
Next on the one-and-done list is Migration, a non-sequel animated feature that could compete in that category against a bunch of disappointments this year, though there are also a lot of successes. That said, the films that didn’t disappoint will almost assuredly compete for the win while Migration will be lucky to get a nomination.
While it might only be up as a contender for Animated Feature, The Boy and the Heron is the latest Hayao Miyazaki work to land in US theaters and compete in that category. Miyazaki is one of the few non-Disney players to win the category, so the well received movie should find a berth in the nomination slate, though a win isn’t likely.
While Aardman Animation isn’t Studio Ghibli (Hayao Miyazaki), they are close in terms of Oscar recognition. Their long-after sequel Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget might do slightly better than Miyazaki’s film at the box office, but will certainly be a contender for one of the Best Animated Feature slots. Can it make it? It will take strong critical response to get it in over other titles.
A film that could easily score nothing, but could also feature in at least Supporting Actress, is Ferrari. The film hasn’t gotten the same level of acclaim as later titles on this list, but it did well enough to not be completely shut out. that is to say Penélope Cruz is the single figure likely getting a nomination thanks to the dearth of candidates in Supporting Actress. The film could also make inroads to Film Editing and Sound due to its racing subject matter and Michael Mann’s direction, but don’t expect too much from the film.
Next up is the last of the films that have currently been screened. The Iron Claw, Sean Durkin’s look at a professional wrestling dynasty starring Zac Efron and recently-minted Emmy winner Jeremy Allen White. The film has gotten surprisingly good reactions from those initial screenings, which could mean the film has a chance at Oscar nominations. That said, Durkin has yet to breakthrough at the Oscars and while this could be the vehicle to make that happen, there are far too other more prominent contenders to steal its spotlight that it’s likely to be ignored.
This leaves us with two big question marks. The first: Wonka is a prequel to Charlie and the Chocolate Factory starring Timothée Chalamet as a young Willy Wonka. The film’s trailer suggests the musical feature will be filled with whimsy and creative brilliance, but the film hasn’t screened for critics, which is worrisome. If the film tanks, it won’t compete in any above-the-line categories, but will certainly be making a play in the craft categories, most notably Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, and Sound. If it’s really good, Chalamet might even break into Best Actor (doubtful) or a surprise first nomination for Hugh Grant might happen in Supporting Actor (more likely, but still not very).
Finally, we have the only other major question mark. The Color Purple, which has yet to be screened for anyone except test audiences who haven’t exactly embraced it. Still, it’s one of the big event films of the Christmas holiday and if it’s well received by audiences, even if not by critics, it could still make an Oscar play. If it’s good, and the most recent trailer suggests it could be, it will contend in several major categories. If it’s awful, at least there will be craft citations like Production Design, Costume Design, and Sound. We’ll just have to wait and see next month.
Before digging into some of the major players in limited release in December, let’s tick off four films that aren’t likely to contend and a fourth that has the pedigree for it, but likely won’t. Eileen, Origin, Rebel Moon: Part One, and Freud’s Last Session are the first four and The Boys in the Boat is the fifth.
You can dismiss Rebel Moon as little more than a Visual Effects contender and Freud’s Last Session and Eileen are only on this list because of their stars. Neither of the latter two films seem like vehicles that land Oscar nominations without buzz, so you can probably write both of them off, though you completely discount Anthony Hopkins’ chances at your own risk. Origin is an interesting one being the brainchild of Ava DuVernay and boasting a compelling narrative hook. The problem is that the film saw a festival run that was decent, but overshadowed by a lot of other films. It had a lot defenders, but also some strong detractors. Audiences aren’t likely to warm up to it and if you aren’t getting Cloud Atlas vibes, I don’t know what to say. It would be folly to discount the film until the full critical body has seen it, but it’s not shaping up to be a major contender.
The Boys in the Boat has an interesting pedigree. Director George Clooney brings this sports drama about poor young men who become celebrated rowers at the Olympics. It’s based on a true story, so that will appeal to a lot of people. It’s a period sports film, which reminds of Clooney’s Leatherheads, which wasn’t an Oscar contender. Still, Clooney can’t be immediately dismissed and if the film is a huge hit both with critics and audiences, it could become a late-breaking contender, but at this point, I’m not sure it will make it.
Now, let’s dig into the last four films on this list.
I previously highlighted Poor Things in my September reports as it was releasing at the festivals. If you want to read my retrospective thoughts on it, you can start here. That said, the film has only built momentum since its festival debut and remains one of the year’s strongest contenders while a second Oscar for Emma Stone doesn’t look so out of the realm of possibility anymore. The film will be nominated in several categories, including Stone and Mark Ruffalo for acting, Best Picture, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Production Design, and Costume Design, possibly even Directing and Makeup & Hairstyling. What it wins might be limited to Original Screenplay, but it’s certainly in the race.
A film with tons of acclaim, but no clear path to victory outside of International Feature is The Zone of Interest, a Cannes winner that finally got a 2023 release date and is poised to enter the competition as the non-English language film with the most broad potential for nominations. It’s set post-World War II, which gives it period bona fides and a Best Picture nomination also seems likely. The film could make a play in screenplay and editing categories, but where it will strike out beyond that is unknown. Still, it’s an interesting test for how accepting the Academy has become to non-American, non-English films.
American Fiction was a major player at the Toronto International Film Festival where it won the audience award, a strong forebear of Oscar contention. It’s sure to contend in Best Picture as well as Best Actor (the never nominated Jeffrey Wright) and Adapted Screenplay, beyond that, it isn’t sure to pick up many citations from the Academy.
Finally, we have a film that has received plenty of acclaim, but might also be the picture that struggles most with Academy recognition. All of Us Strangers was well received in its festival debut and built enough momentum to earn spots on several predictions lists. However, those who’ve seen it say it’s a little unusual and that might make it hard to get under Oscar voters’ skins. Other than Picture and screenplay, where can it compete? Andrew Scott is making a run in the far too crowded Best Actor slate while Paul Mescal might have an easier time sliding into Supporting Actor. Film Editing’s also a possibility, but this seems like the kind of film that might do better with critics than the Academy.
And that’s it for this month and technically this year (in terms of forecasts). Our next article will be looking into January, which is unlikely to yield many results. Still, let’s finish things out strong and give Pete and Thomas a chance to have their say.
Pete Patrick’s Thoughts
October Retrospective
October gave us three films that should have major impact on this year’s Oscars in Killers of the Flower Moon, The Holdovers, and Nyad.
December Forecast
December has numerous highly anticipated films in the offing including All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, The Zone of Interest, and The Color Purple, all of which should also feature heavily in this year’s Oscar considerations.
Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts
October Retrospective
As we enter the fall months, the prospective Oscar pictures do start to proliferate, though the summer had produced a number that will be nominated. October did produce three films that are likely best picture candidates as well as many acting ones too. The start of prestige movie season has not let us down.
Killers of the Flower Moon will be a major Oscar contender. Its 3 1/2-hour running time is daunting, but it is a good picture. It should pull off noms for picture, director, actor, actress, supporting actor, and perhaps supporting actress as well as adapted screenplay. It should also do well in many of the tech categories, battling with Oppenheimer for the most nominations across the board. I am not sure how many of those nominations it can win, as it looks to be Oppenheimer’s year. Lily Gladstone’s decision to campaign as lead actress instead of supporting has shaken up both categories. She will definitely get a nomination, but it may be harder to win as a lead. It will make for an interesting race.
Anatomy of a Fall opened to good reviews and may make a decent run at the Oscars even without France submitting it as their choice for international film. The Academy often nominates one foreign language film as best picture, and this year it might be Anatomy‘s turn. It should pull off a nomination for original screenplay and perhaps best actress for Sandra Hüller.
The Holdovers also opened to strong reviews. It seems likely to pull off nominations for picture, actor (Paul Giamatti), supporting actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph) and original screenplay, for which it is the frontrunner at this point.
Priscilla opened to decent reviews but Cailee Spaeny and Jacob Elordi seem unlikely to pull off acting noms for it. It could also be a possibility for sound and makeup.
Dicks: The Musical might pull off an original song nomination, but that is the only thing it could possibly do, and that seems pretty unlikely.
In a perfect world, Nyad would pull off a nomination for Annette Bening as the driven swimmer. But her chances appear to be fading. Jodie Foster’s turn as her coach is looking likely to nab her a supporting actress nom instead which sounds deserved, but a pity that both cannot be up.
One question mark remains, will the juggernaut that is Taylor Swift’s The Eras Tour concert film get some recognition from the Academy. A possibility would be for sound. A less likely one would be for best picture because of its commercial success. It is hard to picture that. It will be interesting to see what the producers guild does as they would seem more likely to nominate it.
December Forecast
The Boy and the Heron will definitely be nominated for best animated feature. Whether this likely last film by Hazao Mizazaki can win is a different matter.
The Zone of Interest is set during WWII which often proves to be Oscar bait. Right now it feels on the verge of various Oscar nominations, but I am not sure if it will quite pull them off.
Wonka remains a mystery. It might be wonderful, but it more likely is not and will fade from the public’s consciousness soon. Though it could pull off noms for costume and production design.
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget is made by Aardman Studios which has done well in the animated categories, and it has an outside chance at the final spot for animated feature.
American Fiction has opened to spectacular reviews and a win at Toronto makes it a contender. But I am not certain if it will pull off more than nominations for picture and adapted screenplay. Jeffrey Wright is on the cusp of a nomination, but not sure he has enough support to get one.
Migration could pull off a nomination for animated feature film, but that seems unlikely.
The Iron Claw is said to have Zac Efron’s best performance to date, but so little has been mentioned about this film so far. It is a crowded field and it may be too late for someone else to make a big enough splash to get a nomination.
Freud’s Last Session could score another late-in-life Oscar nomination for Anthony Hopkins, after The Father I will never rule him out. But the first reviews do not bode well for it being an Oscar-nominated film.
All of Us Strangers could possibly pull off nominations for actor, supporting actor, and screenplay, but right now it feels like it probably will not. It sounds intriguing but a little strange, so it might just be off-putting enough to the Academy.
Ferrari could pull off nominations for Penélope Cruz for supporting actress as well as editing, costume design, and makeup & hairstyling, but none of those are sure things.
The Boys in the Boat looks like a fun movie but is coming out perhaps too late to drum up the interest for any nominations.
The Color Purple is the biggest mystery of the month. It has been kept so under wraps that it is hard to know if it will be good or a major flop. I have removed it from many of my lists because I am so unsure about it.
