With the Writers Guild of America announcing after the Oscars, all the precursors leading up to now will have to suffice for our updated Original Screenplay predictions.

Best Original Screenplay

Winner Predictions

Anatomy of a Fall WLPPTL
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives

Runner-Up Predictions

The Holdovers WLPPTL

(color and symbol key at bottom of page)

Wesley Lovell: There are three films whose chances at winning are roughly even. Anatomy of a Fall has no chance of winning anywhere else, The Holdovers is sure to win at least one other award, and Past Lives has no potential to win anywhere other than this and Best Picture, neither of which seems likely. The Holdovers and Past Lives have been running neck-and-neck all season but Anatomy of a Fall won at BAFTA. Barbie could probably have walked away here where it wanted to compete but is now in Adapted and is unlikely to win either place. While I want to lean towards The Holdovers, Da’Vine Joy Randolph is the only certainty for the film and I suspect with no other prospects for a win, Anatomy of a Fall will probably take it, but I wouldn’t count out any of the three.
Pete Patrick: This race has been between the clever mystery of Anatomy of a Fall and the warmth of the Christmas movie, The Holdovers, but Christmas is over. Expect the courtroom drama to win.
Thomas La Tourrette: This has seemingly become a two-picture race with Anatomy of a Fall competing against The Holdovers. Neither May December nor the best picture nominated-Maestro or Poor Things look to have any chance. For a while I thought that the critical darling Past Lives would be a possibility, but it has faded away. The Holdovers originally looked to be the likely winner, but Anatomy of a Fall seems to have eclipsed it. BAFTA and Golden Globes have moved it into first place and I believe it will be winning the Oscar.

KEY: