Now that we’ve had time to review the nominations and get a reading on the landscape, here are our first winner predictions of the 96th Oscars.
INTRODUCTIONS
Wesley Lovell: I’ve put together my first predictions and first thoughts on the race and while some of these races may well be over, there are a few barnburners in the works.
Pete Patrick: Although I am listing runners-up, I think most of these are open and shut cases with only Best Actor, Actress, and Song really up for grabs. The only real question is how many Oscars can Oppenheimer win?
Thomas La Tourette: Ah, the Academy likes surprises.
I was not surprised by Oppenheimer leading the pack with 13 nominations. But the snubs of Barbie and The Color Purple were a shock. Barbie did reasonably well with nominations including best picture, but leaving director Greta Gerwig off the list was a slap in the face. Margot Robbie was as deserving as any of the other nominees. It is a pity that the star of the film was not nominated when her co-stars were. That seems a mistake in this case.
I do wonder if The Color Purple waited too long for its release. A best picture nomination was iffy anyway, but not getting any of the tech or song nominations was a surprise. I expected it to get more. I gather it wasn’t even screening until close to Christmas and that may have proved a mistake.
Annette Bening getting in was a nice surprise for her, even if it proved a detriment to Margot Robbie. America Ferrera’s nomination was not too expected, but her big speech did add extra meaning to the movie.
The documentary branch continues to perplex. American Symphony was easily projected to win and here it is without a nomination. Same for the Disney short Once Upon a Studio. I have not seen it, but it had sounded both well done and sentimental which should have played to the Academy. The rousing anthem from Rustin also seemed a likely nominee, but one should never doubt the ability of Diane Warren to score a nom. Maybe one day she will win. Leonardo DiCaprio’s lack of a nomination is surprising but not totally unexpected. He did do some of his best work in Killers of the Flower Moon, but it was a pretty stacked category. I am okay with Killers not getting an adapted screenplay nom, but that did catch me off guard. And it was nice to see John Williams get perhaps his final nomination for the score of the latest Indiana Jones film. I don’t think he stands a chance of winning, but another career nomination never hurts.
I am sure there will be more surprises and snubs on Oscar night, but we will have to wait awhile to find out.
Best Picture
Winner Predictions
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer WLPPTL
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Runner-Up Predictions
Killers of the Flower Moon WLPPTL
Wesley Lovell: Based on traditional criteria, only three films have a real shot at winning: Anatomy of a Fall, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things. These are the only films with citations in all four critical categories (acting, directing, writing, editing). The Holdovers and Killers of the Flower Moon have three (Killers missed writing and Holdovers missed directing). American Fiction, Barbie, Maestro, and The Zone of Interest each have two (acting/writing, acting/writing, acting/writing, and directing/writing, respectively). Poor Past Lives only got one other nomination, writing. Anatomy of a Fall winning with only five nominations seems unlikely and Oppenheimer has all the momentum.
Best Animated Feature
Winner Predictions
The Boy and the Heron PP
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse WLTL
Runner-Up Predictions
The Boy and the Heron WLTL
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse PP
Wesley Lovell: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse may be a sequel, but it’s a beloved sequel and that alone should give it the edge over Hayao Miyazaki and The Boy and the Heron.
Best Directing
Winner Predictions
Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet
Killers of the Flower Moon – Martin Scorsese
Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan WLPPTL
Poor Things – Yorgos Lanthimos
The Zone of Interest – Jonathan Glazer
Runner-Up Predictions
Killers of the Flower Moon – Martin Scorsese WLPPTL
Wesley Lovell: Christopher Nolan’s been leading most of the season and I don’t see that momentum slowing down.
Best Actor
Winner Predictions
Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Colman Domingo – Rustin
Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers WLPP
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer TL
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction
Runner-Up Predictions
Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers TL
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer WLPP
Wesley Lovell: While this might be the only chance everyone gets to vote for longtime character actor Cillian Murphy, it’s also an opportunity to praise Paul Giamatti. Giamatti’s role is far showier and, in the end, that’s what Academy voters love. There’s too much subtlety to Murphy’s work to net him the win. A SAG prize could change my mind.
Best Actress
Winner Predictions
Annette Bening – Nyad
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon TL
Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall PP
Carey Mulligan – Maestro
Emma Stone – Poor Things WL
Runner-Up Predictions
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon WLPP
Emma Stone – Poor Things TL
Wesley Lovell: This comes down to Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone. Gladstone is obviously weak considering the BAFTA citation. If she further loses at SAG, the narrative will be a second Oscar for Emma.
Best Supporting Actor
Winner Predictions
Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer WLPPTL
Ryan Gosling – Barbie
Mark Ruffao – Poor Things
Runner-Up Predictions
Ryan Gosling – Barbie WLTL
Mark Ruffao – Poor Things PP
Wesley Lovell: While not everyone has been of the same opinion, Robert Downey Jr. has this one in the bag. He’s a beloved actor who has himself saved Hollywood (Iron Man) and with him returning to acclaimed/mainstream work, a career tribute is likely.
Best Supporting Actress
Winner Predictions
Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
America Ferrera – Barbie
Jodie Foster – Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers WLPPTL
Runner-Up Predictions
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple PPTL
America Ferrera – Barbie WL
Wesley Lovell: Da’Vine Joy Randolph has dominated this race like no other. Expect her to win in a walk.
Best Original Screenplay
Winner Predictions
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers WLTL
Maestro
May December
Past Lives PP
Runner-Up Predictions
Anatomy of a Fall WLPP
Past Lives TL
Wesley Lovell: The Holdovers now has no competition with Barbie out of the way.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Winner Predictions
American Fiction PP
Barbie WL
Oppenheimer TL
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Runner-Up Predictions
American Fiction WLTL
Poor Things PP
Wesley Lovell: The lion’s den that Barbie walked into put it at a huge disadvantage. However, after the Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie snubs, I can imagine all of the film’s support piling into an Oscar for Greta in this category.
Best Original Song
Winner Predictions
The Fire Inside – Flamin’ Hot
I’m Just Ken – Barbie PP
It Never Went Away – American Symphony
Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People) – Killers of the Flower Moon
What Was I Made For? – Barbie WLTL
Runner-Up Predictions
I’m Just Ken – Barbie WLTL
What Was I Made For? – Barbie PP
Wesley Lovell: While “What Was I Made For?” is the better song, “I’m Just Ken” has the Kenergy that could propel it to a win.
Best Original Score
Winner Predictions
American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer WLPPTL
Poor Things
Runner-Up Predictions
Killers of the Flower Moon PPTL
Poor Things WL
Wesley Lovell: A lot of people love Oppenheimer‘s score, so it probably has the best chance of taking it.
Best Film Editing
Winner Predictions
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer WLPPTL
Poor Things
Runner-Up Predictions
Anatomy of a Fall WL
Killers of the Flower Moon TL
Poor Things PP
Wesley Lovell: Best Pictures have an advantage here and Oppenheimer probably has the biggest.
Best Cinematography
Winner Predictions
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer WLPPTL
Poor Things
Runner-Up Predictions
Poor Things WLPPTL
Wesley Lovell: Oppenheimer seems poised to walk away with a lot, including this one.
Best Production Design
Winner Predictions
Barbie WLTL
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things PP
Runner-Up Predictions
Barbie PP
Poor Things WLTL
Wesley Lovell: Barbie has a slight lead over Poor Things but an upset can occur.
Best Costume Design
Winner Predictions
Barbie TL
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things WLPP
Runner-Up Predictions
Barbie WLPP
Poor Things TL
Wesley Lovell: While I would like to think Barbie would have an easy time of this, Poor Things just feels like a more obvious winner.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Winner Predictions
Golda
Maestro TL
Oppenheimer
Poor Things WLPP
Society of the Snow
Runner-Up Predictions
Maestro PP
Poor Things TL
Society of the Snow WL
Wesley Lovell: The very obvious makeup in Poor Things has a head-start, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Society of the Snow walked away with the win.
Best Sound
Winner Predictions
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer WLPPTL
The Zone of Interest
Runner-Up Predictions
The Creator PP
Maestro TL
The Zone of Interest WL
Wesley Lovell: Oppenheimer doesn’t look to have any real competition.
Best Visual Effects
Winner Predictions
The Creator WLPP
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galay Vol. 3 TL
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon
Runner-Up Predictions
The Creator TL
Godzilla Minus One WLPP
Wesley Lovell: It’s hard not to see The Creator as the leading contender for a win; However, Godzilla Minus One could follow a Ex Machina/The Golden Compass path to the win.
Best International Feature
Winner Predictions
Io Capitano
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Teachers’ Lounge
The Zone of Interest WLPPTL
Runner-Up Predictions
Society of the Snow TL
The Teachers’ Lounge WLPP
Wesley Lovell: The Zone of Interest/em> and Society of the Snow are the only titles nominated elsewhere. Zone is the only Best Picture nominee of the bunch, so I doubt it will have any chance of losing.
Best Documentary Feature
Winner Predictions
20 Days in Mariupol WLPPTL
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
Runner-Up Predictions
The Eternal Memory PP
Four Daughters WLTL
Wesley Lovell: With the heaviest hitters not here, 20 Days in Mariupol may well have a straight shot at the win.
Best Documentary Short Subject
Winner Predictions
The ABCs of Book Banning WLPPTL
The Barber of Little Rock
Islands in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nai Nai & Wài Pó
Runner-Up Predictions
The Last Repair Shop WLPPTL
Wesley Lovell: Once I’ve seen all five, I should have a better idea what might win. For now, just guessing.
Best Animated Short Film
Winner Predictions
Letter to a Pig WLPPTL
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Runner-Up Predictions
Ninety-Five Senses PP
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko WLTL
Wesley Lovell: Once I’ve seen all five, I should have a better idea what might win. For now, just guessing.
Best Live Action Short Film
Winner Predictions
The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue WL
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar PPTL
Runner-Up Predictions
The After PPTL
Invincible WL
Wesley Lovell: Once I’ve seen all five, I should have a better idea what might win. For now, just guessing.
