With BAFTA giving no guidance for most of the acting awards, we’re left with the more populist SAG voters to provide it.

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS

Legend:

Winner Predictions:
Wesley Lovell Pete Patrick Thomas LaTourrette

Runner-Up Predictions:
Wesley Lovell Pete Patrick Thomas LaTourrette

Best Cast

Frankenstein Nil
Hamnet Nil
Marty Supreme Nil
One Battle After Another WL PP TL
Sinners WL PP TL

Wesley Lovell: Although it’s been confused as a Best Picture precursor, this is still a popularity contest that more recently has gone to the Best Picture winner but that’s no guarantee. There is every likelihood that Sinners ekes out a win over One Battle After Another but if Paul Thomas Anderson’s film wins this and PGA, then the Oscar is likely all over but the shouting…unless we see another Moonlight-like switcheroo.
Pete Patrick: Even though people see this as their version of Best Picture, it’s really an ensemble award and Sinners had a bigger ensemble than One Battle After Another which gives it a bit of an edge.
Thomas La Tourrette: Sinners feels like the likely winner, though it will have strong competition from the more nominated One Battle After Another cast. I vividly remember the individuals from Sinners, so expect it to prevail.

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme WL TL
Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another PP
Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon PP TL
Michael B. Jordan – Sinners WL
Jesse Plemons – Bugonia Nil

Wesley Lovell: Although I think Timothée Chalamet will win, it’s this or he likely loses the Oscar. That said, Michael B. Jordan is popular and I could imagine him making a strong claim to a victory, especially if Sinners is headed for a Best Cast win. Still, Chalamet has the advantage. We’ll have to see if other actors have forgiven him for his braggadocio about being one of the greatest living actors. No one likes an egoist, especially the biggest egoists…actors.
Pete Patrick: This is a tough one.  Chalamet won last year, which shouldn’t be a deterrent, but I think they will want to spread the wealth and give it to someone else.  My hunch is DiCaprio with Hawke a distinct possibility.
Thomas La Tourrette: This does seem to be Timothée Chalamet’s year. He did not win the BAFTA which went to hometown actor, but he has won most everything else. He is younger than they normally give awards too, but it was a showy performance, and he is viewed as overdue. His stiffest competition will come from Ethan Hawke the oldest of the nominees who might be viewed as more deserving and has a juicy role too. I am pretty sure that Chalamet will win, but this category could have an upset.

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley – Hamnet WL PP TL
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You WL
Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue PP TL
Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another Nil
Emma Stone – Bugonia Nil

Wesley Lovell: Jessie Buckley is the only actor to feel like a clean sweeper. Although the precursors were broadly split between Buckley and Rose Byrne, the televised awards have gone Buckley’s direction and I suspect things will continue coming up roses for her.
Pete Patrick: Buckley is the clear favorite, but Hudson is very popular with the rank and file of the membership and could pull a surprise win.
Thomas La Tourrette: Probably the person with the surest chance of winning an Oscar is Jessie Buckley for Hamnet, so she should take this precursor easily. No one else has come close to duplicating her success this year. If anyone stands a chance of pulling an upset, I think it would be the surprise nominee Kate Hudson. She was not expected to be here or in the Oscar race, but a showy role and strong family connections could conceivably flip this race, but that is extremely unlikely. Jessie Buckley wins handily.

Best Supporting Actor

Miles Caton – Sinners Nil
Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another WL PP TL
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein PP TL
Paul Mescal – Hamnet Nil
Sean Penn – One Battle After Another WL

Wesley Lovell: With the potential frontrunner for the Oscars absent, the fight will likely devolve to the stars of One Battle After Another duking it out. Many younger SAG members probably won’t remember Penn already has an award for Milk and might give him a boost because his role in One Battle seems larger than Del Toro’s. That said, this is also the opportunity Jacob Elrodi needs to come from behind. Whoever wins this will be the likely new frontrunner at the Oscars, especially so if it’s Penn. Skarsgård, respected as he might be, didn’t win on closer turf and won’t have the visibility of this prize to bolster his flagging campaign.
Pete Patrick: Elordi is the man of the moment, but you can never count out del Toro.
Thomas La Tourrette: Without Oscar frontrunner Stellan Skarsgard in the mix, I wonder if it will go to Jacob Elordi for his work in Frankenstein. Benicio del Toro had been viewed as the front runner but the recent win by Sean Penn at the BAFTAs in the same film might split the vote. Either might win, but Elordi who won at the Critics Choice Awards might surprise here too.

Best Supporting Actress

Odessa A’Zion – Marty Supreme Nil
Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good Nil
Amy Madigan – Weapons WL PP TL
Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners PP
Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another WL TL

Wesley Lovell: Teyana Taylor has been thought to be the frontrunner for some time and with only two other Oscar nominees on this list (Amy Madigan and Wunmi Mosaku), she could have a decent shot at the win. That said, Madigan is a familiar face and horror performances are so seldom recognized that SAG voters, many of whom got at least some start in horror or horror-adjacent vehicles, that they might give Madigan the surprise win, putting the Oscar race into a dead-heat between them. Of course, Mosaku won at BAFTA and if she wins here, we’ll probably be talking about her being propelled to the front of the Oscar race but I can’t see her winning except in a Sinners sweep.
Pete Patrick: Madigan should make it a pair of horror film winners in the supporting category with BAFTA winner Munmi a bigger threat than most people think.
Thomas La Tourrette: This is the most difficult category to predict. Amy Madigan won the Critics Choice, Teyana Taylor the Golden Globe and in a surprise that shakes up the race, Wunmi Mosaku won the BAFTA. With neither A’Zion or Grande nominated for an Oscar, their chances here seem slim. Madigan is in a horror film which probably dims her chances and Mosaku might benefit from the BAFTA win at the Oscars, but probably not here. I think Taylor wins for a small but memorable role in One Battle.

Best Stunt Ensemble

F1 WL TL
Frankenstein Nil
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning WL TL
One Battle After Another PP
Sinners PP

Wesley Lovell: Most of the precursors have gone to Mission: Impossible so that’s where I’m leaning but I could see a case being made for F1 or One Battle After Another or Sinners. Sorry, Frankenstein.
Pete Patrick: It could be any one of the nominees, but if I had a vote it would go to One Battle After Another with Sinners a close runner-up.
Thomas La Tourrette: Mission: Impossible should easily win this as it had the biggest stunt ensemble of the nominated films.