We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of February and see what films succeeded or faltered. Then we’ll look forward to April and see what have something going for them.

Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts

February Retrospective
Back in January, I looked forward to February and found two films worth noting. Sadly, neither of them looks to be panning out for similar reasons, though one of them has the bonus of not being considered a box office flop.

We’ll start with the flop. Madame Web was Sony’s latest film in the expanded Marvel universe they’ve created around characters in the Spider-Verse. They’ve had uneven successes with these, with the first Venom the only title outside of the four Spider-Man series of films that managed to not only perform well at the box office but reasonably well with critics. Madame Web joins the infamous list of failures, which is soon going to eclipse the number of successes. It was degraded by critics, and audiences didn’t turn out, making it a double-loser. Even though the Visual Effects Branch of the Academy has nominated some real stinkers in the past, even they have their limits and this film is likely at the edge of that.

Next, we have Bob Marley: One Love, which found itself uprooted from its planned 2023 release to a forgettable February 2024 opener. Critics weren’t impressed, a few even suggesting it was worse than Madame Web, which released the same weekend. Yet, the film proved to be a strong box office performer. It iss currently sitting at almost $90 million. For a film that critics didn’t care for, that’s a solid performance. Does this mean its Oscar chances are now improved. The simple answer is “no.” Even a box office hit can’t overcome a critical drubbing this far out from the Oscars. It will be easily forgotten.

There was one other title that I referenced in January that can’t be classified with the aforementioned films. That’s because it is a short film program featuring 96th Oscars nominees. While there are some truly excellent finds in this year’s slate, they are unfortunately inferior to prior years’ with more misses and mediocrities than years’ past. Still, if you can get out to see them anyway, you’ll at least come away with a few that will linger well past leaving the theater.

April Forecast
As we enter April, major Oscar contenders will start to release, not many but they aren’t as plagued by early-year forgetfulness as those in the first quarter. Still, it doesn’t always have a lot on offer with the major summer blockbusters the month after. This month, there are six films that have varying degrees of potential. Let’s start with the wide releases and finish off with the limited.

Three of the six are wide releases. The first out of the gate will be Civil War by Alex Garland. With his first directorial effort, Ex Machina, Garland managed to deliver an Oscar winner and that has made his subsequent efforts seem more plausible as contenders than they should probably be. Annihilation and Men both followed and neither were Oscar contenders. The same is likely true of Civil War, a sci-fi drama about a journalist on the frontlines of a war between the United States and California/Texas. It’s an odd pairing, so it’s obvious the film won’t have as stirring a political dimension as it might have with liberal/conservative divides. It’s possible the film won’t even succeed at the box office. The production values look strong, which is where we would consider it as a contender but even that doesn’t look like it will be impressive enough for Oscar voters.

The second wide release is The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare, a purported true story of a band of men secretly working for the British government during World War II. It’s a period film, which should give it some foundation for a craft run; however, Guy Ritchie’s films have never been major Oscar contenders even when they were deserving. I would rank this one as just below Civil War in terms of its Oscar potential.

Challengers is the final wide release on my list. When I first saw the trailer last year when it was a 2023 release, it looked like an acting showcase for its three stars. Then it was pushed back to 2024, which gives one pause in thinking about its chances. The second trailer was lackluster and the April release suggests the film’s Oscar potential is minimal at best. Zendaya could still be in the conversation but this isn’t the kind of drama Oscar voters recognize with acting nominations.

For limited releases, let’s start with the earliest and the one least likely to be in competition for the Oscars. Housekeeping for Beginners was the Macedonian entry for the 96th Oscars. It’s a queer film that failed to make the shortlist for the Best International Feature Oscar. That is the biggest strike against it. While its 2024 release will put it into competition for a few foreign language film prizes, it is unlikely that it will get too far with Oscar voters as it is rare that an International Feature submission comes back in a subsequent year and gets nominated.

Next up is a sequel to the Oscar-nominated documentary Food, Inc.. Food, Inc. 2 will obviously be compared to its predecessor, which won several awards as best documentary even if its Oscar nomination resulted in a loss. We don’t often get sequels in the documentary category, so it will be interesting to see how voters feel about that. If it’s one of the best of the year, it has to be considered but if it’s a critical dud, don’t expect much out of it. Like so many other such efforts.

Finally, we have a film nominated at last year’s Spirit Awards even though it didn’t get a 2023 U.S. release. We Grown Now earned three nominations, including Best Feature, Best Editing, and Best Cinematography. That’s an impressive array of awards citations; however, it’s also old news. The visibility the film could have gotten with a 2024 nomination might have bolstered its chances. While critical acclaim could alleviate that issue, it’s unlikely the film will have the salience and longevity to survive to next year’s Oscars.

That wraps up my April forecast. Let’s see what Pete and Thomas have to say about it.

Pete Patrick’s Thoughts

February Retrospective
With Oscar season in full swing, most of the films still dominating in February were the 2023 Oscar contenders. No new films of note opened.

April Forecast
Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers with Zendaya, Josh O’Connor, and Mike Faist; Alex Garland’s Civil War with Kirsten Dunst and Cailee Spaeny; and The First Omen, which reignites the horror franchise with Bill Nighy, Charles Dance, and Sonia Braga are the most anticipated films of the month. The Independent Spirit Awards contender, We Grown Now, will also finally be released.

Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts

February Retrospective
None of the films released then will be future Oscar nominees.

April Forecast
Wicked Little Letter is the type of a small British comedy that could land a screenplay or surprise acting nomination, but that seems unlikely.

The Beast has strong reviews, but not sure where it could pull off a nomination.

Chicken for Linda could pull off a nomination for animated feature.

Scoop might pull off a screenplay nomination, but the early release means it probably won’t.

The People’s Joker sounds like an interesting film, but there is a possibility that it received some time in theaters back in 2022 which would mean it is not now able to be nominated for animated feature.

Indigo Girls: It’s Only Life After All could grab a nomination for documentary feature if the Academy looks for American films this year.

Sasquatch Sunset has an outside chance for a makeup & hairstyling Oscar, after all it worked for Harry and the Hendersons.